The following pretty much nails why Jeb isn’t replicating the success of Mitt Romney and doesn’t seem very likely to in the future, either.
In 2016, the insurgents are not Bush alternatives, said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. Worse, they’re indifferent to him.
“If there’s a sense that you’re the person that they need to pit someone against, that suggests you have a strong base of underlying support,” Murray said.
“But Donald Trump and Ben Carson aren’t ‘anyone but Bush’ candidates. They’re tapping into an entirely different mindset in which Bush is irrelevant. In 2012, it was always Romney and someone who is not Romney. We’re not having that conversation about Jeb, and that speaks volumes.”
And Romney always had an ace-in-the-hole.
“Romney had New Hampshire in his back pocket the whole time,” Robinson said.
Romney, from neighboring Massachusetts, held a double-digit lead in New Hampshire throughout. He was guaranteed at least one victory in a carve-out state.
Bush has no such guarantees. He is in sixth place in Iowa and fourth place in New Hampshire, which many believe is a must-win state for him. Even if he could wait it out to Florida’s primary on March 15, he’s behind in the polls Trump and Carson in his home state.
I recently did a brief post in which I said that I keep forgetting that Jeb is even a candidate. I wasn’t making that up. He really seems like an afterthought. And it’s not just because he isn’t getting the kind of press coverage (or scrutiny) that you’d expect. There’s just a sense that he’s the wrong person at the wrong time and there isn’t any need to discuss him because he truly has nothing to say that anyone cares about.
I keep hesitating to declare him dead politically because he has a lot of money and Establishment support and the alternatives look riskier for the Republicans. There’s a history of Republicans flirting with more conservative candidates before falling in line for the Establishment choice. But, as this cited article points out, Jeb isn’t in the same position as previous Establishment candidates. He’s far, far weaker.
Maybe he’ll be the “Joyful Tortoise” who keeps a slow, steady, unexciting pace and outlasts his more flamboyant competitors, but it’s looking more and more like he’ll need the rabbits to get run over by a truck or something.
I don’t think he has what it takes.
I’ve never thought he was likely. His favorable/unfavorable numbers just have never been very good. To establishment types he carries the weight of his unpopular brother and the fear that he would lose to Clinton, and he is viewed with suspicion by the Tea Party types.
The two parallels to him I can think of are rather odd ones:
His father in 1980 – It is long forgotten, but Reagan was not loved by the establishment. When Ford did not run, the establishment gravitated to Baker and Bush. Baker is a classic case of a candidate who never connected, and was perhaps out of step with the GOP electorate. Bush built a significant organization in Iowa, and had he won New Hampshire he might have been able to beat Reagan.
But Bush had nothing close to the name recognition Jeb! has, and nothing close to the baggage.
It is a case of an establishment GOP candidate coming from nowhere to be a player in the nomination process. Honestly it is the only example I can think of since ’64.
John Kerry – 04. Was Kerry the establishment choice in ’03 early? I think he was, he then collapsed and was nearly out of the race, and came back in Iowa late. It’s the only example I can think of in any party that is close to Jeb!’s position that was able to mount a serious run at the Presidency.
But again, Kerry had nothing likeJeb!’s baggage.
Republicans have tended to not nominate candidates from the right of their party, and the other candidates in the establishment wing are hardly scary, so I wouldn’t write him off either.
He is on the air a lot in NH right now, FWIW.
The Democratic establishment also carries a lot of weight with democratic voters. Its much more than the republican side.
“There’s a history of Republicans flirting with more conservative candidates before falling in line for the Establishment choice.”
I would say that, except for being married to a Mexican woman and having in the past sounded comparatively non-racist, he’s actually in many ways more conservative than Trump. What’s moderate about him except for his manner? Nothing that I’m aware of.
that he’s supported Common Core.
that he’s supported comprehensive immigration reform
that he’s not likely to make uprooting Obamacare a top priority as president
that he’s got at least a few toes still in the realist camp of his father and his advisers.
that he’s not a nihilist or a politically revolutionary for the Conservative Movement.
I could go on, but Jeb is more a patrician who has moved right to keep up with the rightward drift of the party than someone who wants to lead the party to ultimate conservative paradise.
His brother was a more cynical politician who had something to prove to his Daddy and his advisers, and Dubya’s political team was willing to embrace and encourage the worst elements of the right for naked political advantage. Jeb wants to keep them at arm’s length and walk the party back.
There are big differences.
Jeb wants to keep them at arm’s length and walk the party back.
You know, that might be the only thing that could save him. If the crazies dig in their heels on the debt ceiling fight and cause another shutdown, then the economy tanks. In all the nastiness that follows, the Establishment types and the Wall Streeters might all run to Jeb! and start beating the He’s Our Only Hope drums. If that happens, he might suddenly become their Knight In Shining Armor.
Come to think of it, it could work out that way, ironically. People, too, might decide he’s needed to restore sanity to his party.
That’s the danger of Jeb. Because other candidates have charted new parameters of extremism for the party, he has the opportunity to reintroduce his brother’s politics as sensible.
To quote the late Admiral Ackbar, “It’s a trap.”
More like his father’s politics I suspect. And as bad as that would be, it’d be a lot saner than anything the Republicans have done since.
Except on FP — jeb? has hired most of Moron’s old FP team (Poppy’s nat’l security team is probably quite old/deceased by now). At least Poppy had the good sense to stop before reaching Baghdad and get out of there rather quickly.
Bush Sr. brought the Birchers into his campaign in his ’64 Senate bid, mainstreaming a previous beyond the pale constituency. Dubya was not as exceptional within the Bush clan as has been made out.
OK. Jeb doesn’t have what it takes. But who does?
The Republican establishment is not going with Trump or Carson. The religious candidates are toast. And none of the rest is likely to catch on, either.
When it comes down to June and July, the establishment has to support someone. Who is it?
Or is the Presidential nomination going to be a replay of the Speaker decision? That is suicide for the Republican Party.
One school of thought is that Ted Cruz sweeps up all of the nutters who are voting for Trump, Carson, and Fiorina.
Those 3 are the “outsiders”. When the inevitable fall takes place for them, Cruz is the natural receiver of the ‘cazy base’ vote. He is an elected official but he has really made a point of not going along with anything in the Senate, and that is bonus points for the R base voter these days.
I know it seems hard to swallow, Cruz is not polling well now, but there is some logic to it.
“…but it’s looking more and more like he’ll need the rabbits to get run over by a truck or something.”
Let’s see. We are talking about
Donald “I can’t keep my mouth shut” Trump;
Ben “I’m black and not so bright or brave” Carson;
Carly “I gave $450K to Planned Parenthood” Fiorina;
Ted “My daddy thinks I’m almost Christ” Cruz
Marco “Not even the Cubans like me now” Rubio;
John “I’m going to piss off seniors over SS” Kasich;
and some dwarfs.
Is that truck gears I hear in the mirror???
I have yet to see Donald Trump damaged by failing to shut his mouth. In fact, the biggest damage so far has been when he did keep his mouth shut in the last debate. It almost doesn’t matter what he says, just that he’s saying something all the time and offending the right people.
Right now, he’s the only one with a winning strategy. I don’t know if he’ll be able to keep it up for 4 more months and I have real doubts about his ability to form and run a real campaign organization. But if he can maintain a floor of 25% going into the early primaries, I could really see him pull it out.
This all won’t help him in the general election, but in a Republican primary divided by lots of weak candidates…
I agree that Trump’s mouth hasn’t lost him much. But I maintain that it hasn’t gained him anything in the past 6 weeks. His current 22-27% (depending on the poll) will remain constant.
It’s not enough. And he doesn’t know how to appeal to anyone he’s already doesn’t.
But what happens if he wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina with pluralities? Everything he does is about showing his dominance, which is a trait to which Republicans are particularly programmed to respond. The thing that I come back to is that Trump started out with very high negatives with Republicans, and that changed dramatically in the first few weeks while everyone was talking about his vile comments about Mexicans and insane talk about building a wall along the southern border. A big portion of the Republican Party that isn’t currently supporting Trump will back him if they see he’s a winner. We don’t know yet if that’s a majority, but it might not matter until it’s too late.
I think one win for Trump will bring a lot of those people around (just like Iowa was an earthquake in 2008 for Obama), and I just don’t see anyone strong enough, at this point, to be able to clear the rest of the field fast enough before its too late. And even if they did clear it quickly, would Trump be reviled in the Party enough that any “anyone but Trump” candidate could count on majorities going into Super Tuesday? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it based on what I’ve seen so far. The big, you could say “HUUUUGE” asterisk, for me, is that I don’t think he can put together a professional campaign organization. He’s not nearly as competent as he likes to project and he has the arrogance commonly found in very rich people who think that because they have a lot of money, they can do ANYTHING better than those who have dedicated their lives to doing those things. The reason I’m not sure that’s fatal, at this stage, is that I think the Republican candidates ARE all incompetent in their own ways and Trump seems to be a better retail politician than his opponents.
Trump has his weaknesses, even with the Republican primary electorate, but someone needs to find the formula to take him down a peg, publicly, and be able to unite their own 20+% core block through the first few contests. Fiorina drew a bit of blood with the Donald, but she’s just as incompetent as he is, without the charisma, and she’s running for the nomination of they misogynist party as a woman. The longer these guys swat at him without landing a punch, they just look like losers, which is exactly Trump’s framing of all of his opponents.
As many have said, and I may have read it here first: Jeb lost the race when he failed to defend his wife when Trump publicly insulted her, waiting weeks to ask for an apology during the second debate. If you can’t take down a bigoted reality TV show joke of a man when he publicly insults your family, how can you expect to “stare down ISIS/ISIL” (to use the Republican’s own framing)? This is what makes the tortoise analogy just not ring true to me. If you want to be the anti-Trump, you need to at least prove that you can hold your own. Jeb has proven he can’t, so if voters are searching for an anti-Trump, Jeb won’t be the first or second choice, and by the time they figure out who to settle on, it just might be too late.
It’s hard for me to believe that Donald Trump will be the nominee. But if the race continues to revolve around him and he can hold on to his 20+% through Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s hard for me to see anyone else taking him down. Maybe Trump fatigue will set in before Iowa and that will give some oxygen for others. All I can say is I hope that lots of Republicans are very upset by the result of the primaries, whatever that result may be…
Fine. Let him be the nominee.
Name three people that you know who voted for Obama who would vote for Trump. For the life of me, I can’t. And until I can, I’m not going to worry about it.
Also, before anyone gets excited about “OMG, people won’t show up” … this is TRUMP. If nothing else, we’ll have the highest turnout for a national election since 1964.
Oh, I’m not worried about Trump winning the general election (it’s difficult for me to worry about any of them, quite frankly). For awhile, I was a little nervous at the possibilities he seemed to present regarding his populist rhetoric, but then he released his Jeb+ tax plan with Grover Norquist’s stamp of approval and put my mind at ease. If he had actually presented a tax plan that cost him and his class money (even if it was still ridiculous), I would have been very worried at his potential for rejiggering the coalition demographics. But instead, he just went all in on Republican voodoo and gave himself a huuuge tax cut, all while claiming that it would cost him a lot of money. No Republican is going to forcefully call him out on that, because they all do the same thing; it’s a virtue. But that won’t fly in the general election, and as you say, Obama voters won’t vote for Donald Trump (with the exception of people like the idiot who made headlines in 2004 who voted for W because he considered the environment the most important issue…). And a Trump campaign will have won based on the candidate’s media savvy, not based on campaign organization. He won’t have (and will be incapable of building) anything like the Democratic candidate, and that will be fatal to him in a general election.
Consistent with this, rumors of Trump’s demise have been greatly exaggerated:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary#!mindate=2015-04-01&estim
ate=custom
The noninspirational candidate. His attempts at Trump style outrage sound fake and forced. He’s yet to find his groove, whatever that is.
Jeb is a candidate without a message and no amount of oppo research will clear the path for him to rise unless and until he develops a persona with a message.
GW had a message and it was pure evil but at least he could persuade a crowd. Jeb can’t.
Jeb is weak because he has a campaign right out of the 80’s. Jeb is promoting a contest to spend a day with George and Barbara in Houston. What’s next lunch with Nancy? Only Americans interested in what Jeb has to say are dead or dying. Oh, and Jeb is invisible. He’s not on TV…Fox, the Sunday pundit shows, late night shows, or SNL. His 100 million dollar PAC can only promote Jeb by spending millions on TV ads in NH. I have yet to see an on line ad for Jeb. Jeb is proving to be as much of a disappointment as Rand.
But maybe flying low under the radar at this point isn’t so bad, while being the subject of saturation media exposure like Trump gets could lead to a public backlash soon, people just tiring of seeing that weird hair and hearing the voice.
This at least is what the jeb? team hopes will happen — Trump will end up as the winner of the summer and fall pre-season, pre-primary period, while jeb? hangs on to emerge as the winner of the winter and spring primaries, when it counts.
Of course, jeb? would need some negative help from Kasich and Rubio in this scenario, perhaps a few more media cycles of Kasich on cutting SS benefits, and Rubio doing something stupid that diminishes him.
Bush is like those so called moderate reps in congress. There are hundreds of them. Some got in congress when W was president. They do nothing but hold a place for the next GOP. They don’t pass legislation and never vote against anything the GOP manages to get to the floor. Jeb has nothing to offer the Freedom Caucus or Teabaggers. Jebs could not even fight for his wife….note how invisible she is.
Does anyone believe that Jeb wants to be President? I don’t think this was his idea.
That thought has crossed my mind, too. More than once.
it’s hard to imagine him succeeding at running for president.
TampaBay from 2013:
Political dynasties work if there’s a large group of the public at large that loves the family members. I’ve seen no sign that that’s the case for the Bushes. Given the toxic nature of the aftermath of W’s decisions, how he could think that he has any meaningful chance seems delusional. Even if he were an excellent candidate (which, of course, he isn’t).
:-/
Cheers,
Scott.
I agree, he just doesn’t seem to have the passion for the job. Like someone who got talked into it.
he was ‘ the smart one’.
and thinks it should be handed to him, without him doing any work.
I am sitting here, watching the days tick by, and Trump still in the race, taking oxygen out of the room. I don’t know what will happen to Jeb, but he’s an awful candidate who thinks that it’s his birthright to be President.
Before Jeb? threw his hat into the ring, he seemed like the most plausible GOP nominee considering the competition. Then he opened his mouth and began to speak. Not quite as much negative charisma as Walker, but dumb as Perry and with the energy level of Romney.
The only reason I’m not quite ready to write him off as hopeless is that I recall 2003. Kerry did seem to be as hapless and hopeless as Jeb?. Until the IWR vote, I’d always viewed Kerry favorably. He didn’t say or do anything in the year leading up to the Iowa caucus that restored him in my eyes. It was also my opinion that a Democrat that voted for the IWR would be too compromised to beat GWB in ’04. So, Jeb? could still get the nominee because he’s the choice of the party elites and sounds less crazy than the others. However, like Kerry, he will have little on which to base a GE campaign.
IOW, short of a black swan, Jeb? loses in November 2014.
Yeah, Kerry’s a good analogy. Jeb might be able to come back from the dead in December, like Kerry and McCain. The dynamics here feel different, though. Kerry had run lots of elections, some of them close, and he knew how to run a campaign. Jeb has run 3 campaigns, to my knowledge: in the first he was destroyed by a superior opponent, the second he got lucky, and the third he was an incumbent who was riding a real estate bubble. He doesn’t know what he’s doing, and he doesn’t seem to want it badly enough to figure it out. Sure, he still has time, but Kerry had qualities which really differentiated him from the others (as you mention, his record up to Iraq was better than many of his opponents and thus broadly acceptable/even desirable to many primary-voting Democrats, and most of his serious opponents had the same failing with regard to Iraq – or worse, if you consider Lieberman – and his war record was a compelling narrative, especially in that noxious electoral environment) while Jeb’s “qualities” pretty much start and end with his last name. When I think back, I’m not sure there was a better choice in that election for the Democrats to choose (and like you I was pretty disappointed in his vote for the IWR and continue to think that if he hadn’t voted for it, he just might have been President in 2005). Democrats were in a mood to remove W, and voted practically. Republicans desperately want to remove Obama and defeat Clinton, but that’s not their top priority at the moment. Their hate, fear, and rage are currently boiling over and they can’t think strategically (and those that can can’t decide on what the strategy should be, let alone who should lead/execute it).
And the big elephant in the room: Kerry needed Dean to implode (which he did) and Jeb needs the same from Trump (who is proving robust, so far). Jeb can survive Carson winning Iowa (Carson has a very, very real ceiling, even in the cray-cray Party), but I think Trump’s ceiling may be high enough that he can win, if he can hold onto his base and expand it another 10-20% after Iowa and New Hampshire while no one else consolidates similar support until it’s too late. If Jeb performs similarly to Rubio and/or Kasich and a bunch of others in Iowa and New Hampshire, just how does he get them to drop out fast enough to stop Trump? He will need to surge before those contests and at least show a strong third in Iowa and New Hampshire (because Carson doesn’t count). Kerry had near-death experiences before and had pulled it out – I have yet to see the evidence Jeb can do the same. We’ll see, of course, but I don’t see a glimmer of hope at the present.
Have some minor quibbles with your take, but mostly agree.
Trump is leading in IO, NH, and SC by strong margins with several others also ahead of him; thus, gaming it out for Jeb? to win is close to an exercise in futility.
I need the exclamation point in order to stay awake when he shuffles across the stage.