It looks as if the folks trying to coerce Paul Ryan into accepting the booby prize of the third most powerful position in our nation’s government have made a small bit of progress. Per Nancy Cordes of CBS, Rep. Ryan is willing to consider taking a job he does not want, but only if he doesn’t have to make any hard commitments to the hard core conservatives who forced Boehner and McCarthy out.
This actually makes sense because, as I’ve been telling you, the real problem here is that the Republican Establishment doesn’t want to shutter the government again over Planned Parenthood or anything else. They absolutely have to raise the debt ceiling. They are not interested, at all, in having another brawl with the president that they know they are destined to lose. So, if that’s what the Freedom Caucus thinks they assured by refusing to listen to Boehner and McCarthy’s pleas, Paul Ryan isn’t going to be the guy to deliver them their trophy.
What Ryan is attempting to do is get the Freedom Caucus to capitulate, which is something they would not do for the current leadership team.
Will they listen to him?
I think some of them probably will, but I’m pretty sure that a good number of them will not.
The question then becomes, how much uniformity does Ryan require in order to take the job?
Ryan’s confidants tell CBS News he will not horse trade with the House Freedom Caucus, a group of 40 or so deeply conservative members who have been demanding changes to House rules and other very specific promises from candidates for Speaker in exchange for their support. Ryan’s confidants say he is not going to negotiate for a job he never sought, and that he has a record of conservative leadership that should be clear to every member of the GOP conference.
They say Ryan hasn’t ruled out meeting with the House Freedom Caucus if asked, but “he’s not going to go to the Freedom Caucus and say, ‘I’ll do this and this’…otherwise you’ve sold yourself to them from the very beginning, and set yourself up for failure” said someone with knowledge of his deliberations.’ “He still really, really does not want to do this. He has his dream job. If he’s Speaker, his whole career path changes. He’s not going to make concessions to get a job he didn’t want in the first place.”
Either members believe in his conservative leadership, or they don’t – and if Ryan concludes that he’s unlikely to get a near-unanimous vote of support from republicans, his allies say he is happy to stay exactly where he is as the chair of the House Ways and Means committee.
Now, creating the credible threat that the alternative to Paul Ryan is a coalition government with the Democrats is part of the power play here, and I know I’ve been doing my part in that respect. Obviously, I’d prefer a share of power in the House to a Paul Ryan speakership, but I’d take either over a national default and a global recession.
It’s possible that some of the rule changes the conservatives are demanding could serve as a face-saving gesture that allows them to cave in on the shutdown and debt ceiling with some dignity, but even there I think Ryan will be pretty tight on what he’s willing to trade. If he gives these unruly members the combination to the romper room, he’ll never be able to keep them from introducing every crazy amendment under the Sun.
We’re going to get some real insight into how far the disease has advanced in the Conservative Movement, and we’ll know a lot more about the near-term future of our government by the end of business on Wednesday.
