cross-posted at New European Times
I’m now in a better position to help clear up what’s been happening, or apparently happening, in Italy in the last few days. With Berlusca, however, it’s almost impossible to predict anything (and he loves it that way, of course, being the showman that he is).
First of all, he did NOT resign. The whole thing appears to have been some kind of absolutely bizzare charade.
He went to Ciamp’s residence to discuss the situation. Apparently, Ciampi suggested to him that he go through “il passagio parlamentare” (the parliamatary route), which is just another way of saying that he should offically declare a parliamentary crisis.
There are four types of crisis, by the way, in Italy: “crisi di governo”, “crisi parlamentare”, “crisi pilotato”, and “crisi al buio”.
The first crisis exists when their are serious conflicts internal to the governing coaltion which prevent it from doing its job. The President of the Counsel (currently Berlusconi) goes to Ciampi and hands over his resignation.
The second exists when their is some question as to the ability of the governing coalition to continue to govern the nation in the light of its unpopularity or after a huge defeat like that which occured in the recent regional elections.The President of the Counsel consults with both houses of parliament and usually sets a date for a vote-of-confidence. This seems to be the option that Berlusconi is choosing at the moment.
The third (piloted crisis) is what the UDC and the National Alliance seemed to be pushing for. That is, resignation followed by the formation of a new governing coalition headed by the same leader with the same parties but with the ministries reshuffled and an (allegedly) new political program.
The fourth (crisis in the dark) is just some form of ad-hoc
extemporaneous phenomenon with no clearly defined rules or tradition.
At this point, we seem to be in the parliamentary crisis phase. But the categories are fluid so that it’s hard to tell what the devil kind of crisis best corresponds to the actual situation. According to La Repubblica, “Il Cavaliere” has decided on a vote-of-confidence set for Thursday.
But the situation is not even that simple for him. Yesterday, it was reported that Gianfranco Fini (head of AN) and others were making public statements that the coalition had reached an accord and that, as a result, Berlusconi would go to Ciampi and hand in his resignation and then form a new government, a Berlusconi bis (from the Latin for twice). All of this follows the model of the piloted crisis that AN and UDC were pushing for. Now that he has refused to resign, I’m reading that AN (a large and indispensable part of the coalition) is threatening to resign en masse from the governnment following the example of UDC.
Here’s my own editorial analysis of the situation, for what its worth:
Berlusconi has been going around for days repeating that he “will not resign” and that such an act would constitute a “slap in the face” and an embarassment to him personally. Their have also been credible reports that he fears that the UDC, Ciampi and, possibly, AN have been scheming behind the scenes to create a “trap” to get rid of him under the pretenses of a “piloted crisis.” He beleives, and I think he’s probably right in this respect, that the Christian Democrats from both the left and the right want to, ultimately, reconstruct the great old “DC della Prima Repubblica” which dominated Italian politics uninterruptedly for forty some-odd years before the complete collapse of the old system of proportional representation with Tangentopoli and the semi-revolution of the early 1980s. Both of these motives, i.e., his megalomaniacal narcissism in considering his own reputation and image ahead of the general interest and welfare of the nation, and his somewhat justified fear that others are scheming to get rid of him and are already making plans for an era “post-berlusconiana”–are at the bottom of his decision to pull a sort of head-fake to fool the UDC, AN and the media into beleiving he would resign and then, instead, come back as the undisputed leader and put them on the hot seat, challenging them to try to get rid of him overtly in a vote-of-confidence which he thinks he’s guaranteed to win because he’s still indispensable to the coalition.
The question now is whether he has not succeeded, instead, in alienating both the UDC and AN into, not only, abandoning the coalition, but possibly even voting against him on Thursday.
He went to Ciamp’s residence to discuss the situation. Apparently, Ciampi suggested to him that he go through “il passagio parlamentare” (the parliamatary route), which is just another way of saying that he should offically declare a parliamentary crisis.
There are four types of crisis, by the way, in Italy: “crisi di governo”, “crisi parlamentare”, “crisi pilotato”, and “crisi al buio”.
The first crisis exists when their are serious conflicts internal to the governing coaltion which prevent it from doing its job. The President of the Counsel (currently Berlusconi) goes to Ciampi and hands over his resignation.
The second exists when their is some question as to the ability of the governing coalition to continue to govern the nation in the light of its unpopularity or after a huge defeat like that which occured in the recent regional elections.The President of the Counsel consults with both houses of parliament and usually sets a date for a vote-of-confidence. This seems to be the option that Berlusconi is choosing at the moment.
The third (piloted crisis) is what the UDC and the National Alliance seemed to be pushing for. That is, resignation followed by the formation of a new governing coalition headed by the same leader with the same parties but with the ministries reshuffled and an (allegedly) new political program.
The fourth (crisis in the dark) is just some form of ad-hoc
extemporaneous phenomenon with no clearly defined rules or tradition.
At this point, we seem to be in the parliamentary crisis phase. But the categories are fluid so that it’s hard to tell what the devil kind of crisis best corresponds to the actual situation. According to La Repubblica, “Il Cavaliere” has decided on a vote-of-confidence set for Thursday.
But the situation is not even that simple for him. Yesterday, it was reported that Gianfranco Fini (head of AN) and others were making public statements that the coalition had reached an accord and that, as a result, Berlusconi would go to Ciampi and hand in his resignation and then form a new government, a Berlusconi bis (from the Latin for twice). All of this follows the model of the piloted crisis that AN and UDC were pushing for. Now that he has refused to resign, I’m reading that AN (a large and indispensable part of the coalition) is threatening to resign en masse from the governnment following the example of UDC.
Here’s my own editorial analysis of the situation, for what its worth:
Berlusconi has been going around for days repeating that he “will not resign” and that such an act would constitute a “slap in the face” and an embarassment to him personally. Their have also been credible reports that he fears that the UDC, Ciampi and, possibly, AN have been scheming behind the scenes to create a “trap” to get rid of him under the pretenses of a “piloted crisis.” He beleives, and I think he’s probably right in this respect, that the Christian Democrats from both the left and the right want to, ultimately, reconstruct the great old “DC della Prima Repubblica” which dominated Italian politics uninterruptedly for forty some-odd years before the complete collapse of the old system of proportional representation with Tangentopoli and the semi-revolution of the early 1980s. Both of these motives, i.e., his megalomaniacal narcissism in considering his own reputation and image ahead of the general interest and welfare of the nation, and his somewhat justified fear that others are scheming to get rid of him and are already making plans for an era “post-berlusconiana”–are at the bottom of his decision to pull a sort of head-fake to fool the UDC, AN and the media into beleiving he would resign and then, instead, come back as the undisputed leader and put them on the hot seat, challenging them to try to get rid of him overtly in a vote-of-confidence which he thinks he’s guaranteed to win because he’s still indispensable to the coalition.
The question now is whether he has not succeeded, instead, in alienating both the UDC and AN into, not only, abandoning the coalition, but possibly even voting against him on Thursday.