Campaign News Update 4/30 to 5/6

• WA Dems say WA GOP skipped 432 felons who voted illegally, because they were from pro-Dino Rossi regions
• (Gov.com) Republican Assembly leaders failed to override Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle’s veto of a bill that would require voters to show photo identification at the polls, but they moved to add the requirement to the state constitution in time for the 2008 elections.
• NYT: Politics May Be Local, but Fund-Raising Is Going National
• (Earlybird)  Meanwhile, “since election setbacks in 2004,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and Clinton “are among those who argue that Democrats have to do more to reach out to those who oppose abortion,” USA Today reports. “Almost no one suggests that either party is likely to change its absolutist stance on abortion. But some strategists and officeholders, particularly among Democrats, say the tone and approach ought to be adjusted to acknowledge the ambivalence most Americans feel.”
• WA-Gov Election Challenge: Dems win most of the latest motions, by archerhouse
• The Evangelical Noise Machine at MyDD
• CT ACTION ALERT: Campaign finance reform and clean elections, by HeedTheMessenger
• (Gov.com) The Florida legislature sent Gov. Jeb Bush legislation allowing candidates for governor and the Cabinet to raise millions more in campaign cash and still get tax money to help pay for their campaigns. The bill also allows political parties to give up to $250,000 to statewide candidates, a fivefold increase.
• House Might Expand to 437 Representatives; Chris Bowers explains why this could be a net negative for the Democrats.
• (Earlybird) “Democrats are growing increasingly concerned that legislation aimed at curtailing the activities of largely unregulated 527 groups will cripple their voter registration and turnout efforts in the 2006 election and beyond,” Roll Call reports. “Separate bills are moving through the House and Senate aimed at limiting the role of these outside advocacy organizations, which grew in power and influence following the passage of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act in 2002.”
• (Gov.com) More than a year after Miriam Oliphant was suspended as Broward County elections supervisor after months of criticism that she had botched the 2002 primary, the Florida Senate voted along racial lines to remove her formally from office, making permanent Gov. Jeb Bush’s decision to suspend her without pay.
• (WakeupCall) GA Gov. Sonny Perdue “signed off” on a new map for the state’s CDs, but the map cannot take effect until approved by the DoJ (AP).

<U>OH-2</U&gt Special election. (Earlybird) “Voters in Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District will choose a new member of Congress in a special election Aug. 2, after Republicans and Democrats choose their candidates in a special June 14 primary,” the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Ohio Gov. Bob Taft (R) “set the dates Tuesday, four days after Rob Portman resigned to become President Bush’s new trade representative.”

<U>LA Mayor</U&gt Kerry Backs Villaraigosa for L.A. Mayor… Mayor’s Race Turns Inside Out… (Gov.com) Mayor James K. Hahn is turning increasingly to white voters in the San Fernando Valley to propel his reelection effort, ratcheting up his appeals to Valley conservatives and moderates by casting his rival, Antonio Villaraigosa, as a liberal extremist.

<U>NYC</U&gt (Earlybird) Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) “paid a lengthy visit” Sunday “to the Christian Cultural Center, a charismatic evangelical church in Brooklyn that claims more than 20,000 members, and he came away with an endorsement by its pastor,” the NYT reports…  New York City Democratic mayoral candidate C. Virginia Fields “picked up a key endorsement” Monday from Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., “at an event that drew a surprise appearance and hints of support from” former Mayor David Dinkins (D), the NYDN reports.

<U>SD</U&gt (Gov.com) The city council decided to hold a special election July 26 to choose a new mayor to replace Dick Murphy, who resigned in the face of unprecedented legal and financial challenges that have pounded the city… Former San Diego Police Chief Jerry Sanders announced that he will run for mayor. Also in the running is Councilwoman Donna Frye, who lost to Murphy in November when more than 5,500 ballots evidently cast for her were invalidated.

<U>VA</U&gt (earlybird) On Monday, Republican Jerry Kilgore “accused [Virginia] gubernatorial rival” Tim Kaine (D) “of mocking his Southwest Virginia twang — just as Kaine collected an endorsement from the region’s most influential union: the United Mine Workers of America,” the Richmond Times-Dispatch reports.

House of Representatives

• Donate to DCCC.
• Tom DeLay’s House of Scandal
• Jack Abramoff and Friends
• Drop the Hammer on DeLay
• Daily DeLay
• (Note) Roll Call: at the moment, congressional Democrats and Republicans are holding their fire in the ethics war, and are waiting to see if there’s a subcommittee created to investigate House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, as well as the scope of that probe. “Members of Congress, led by Republicans Michael Oxley and Deborah Pryce of Ohio, have tripled spending over the last four years to host fund-raisers in Vail, financing their journeys with money provided by donors,” reports Bloomberg, blaming Leadership PACs.
• Bob Novak: “The overriding point is that DeLay is the most important Republican leader in Congress. That is why Bush was pictured with him on newspaper front pages all over America Wednesday morning.” (By way of The Note, because I would never soil myself by giving a website hit to Bob Novak)

<U>AZ</U&gt Cheney does a fundraiser for Rep. Rick Renzi.

<U>IA</U&gt (Earlybird) Iowa Rep. Jim Leach (R) “is making plans to run for another term,” AP reports. “The 58-year-old Iowa Republican says he’s likely to run for a 16th term next year, which is a blow to Democratic hopes of maintaining gains in the congressional elections.”

<U>IL-6</U&gt Cegelis Arbor Day Speech (IL-06), by michael in chicago… A Conversation with Christine (IL-06), by michael in chicago

<U>LA?</U&gt  (Earlybird) “Former Rep. Chris John (D) is coming under heavy pressure from the House Democrats’ campaign arm to seek the Louisiana seat he vacated in 2004,” Roll Call reports.

<U>MD</U&gt (Earlybird) “At least two Howard County elected officials are contemplating a run for the congressional seat being vacated next year by Baltimore Democrat” Ben Cardin, the Howard County Times reports. “Dels. Shane Pendergrass and Neil Quinter, both Columbia Democrats, said last week that they are interested in running for the 3rd Congressional District seat Cardin occupies.”

<U>OH6</U&gt Strickland’s (D) seat. (Earlybird) Among the early Democratic names mentioned are conservative state Rep. John Boccieri, who had earlier been touted as a challenger to Rep. Bob Ney (R) in the neighboring 18th district.”

<U>TX22</U&gt (Earlybird) Former Rep. Pete McCloskey, R-Calif., “in Houston Sunday for a conference on Palestinian issues, said he and other Republican elders are looking for a candidate to oppose” Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, the Houston Chronicle reports. “He met Sunday with Michael Fjetland, who was defeated by DeLay in Republican primaries in 2000 and 2002 and as an independent in the 2004 general election.”  DeLay’s Support Evaporates in District

<U>VA?</U&gt David challenger “Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) represents an increasingly competitive district (Bush beat Kerry in the district by just one point), but generally wins by wide margins. Lawyer Andrew Hurst hopes to change that next year. It will be Hurst’s first run for public office, though he did work on the national finance committee for John Kerry’s presidential campaign.”

<U>VT</U&gt “Maj. Gen. Martha Rainville, head of the Vermont National Guard, said Thursday she is seriously considering running for the U.S. House as a Republican,” the Barre-Montpelier Times Argus reports.

<U>WV-2</U&gt Capito faces challenger in Mike Callaghan, by pinhickdrew

Senate

• Donate to the DSCC
• Chuck Schumer Kicking Ass at DSCC, by pontificator
• Sanders path cleared to Senate in VT (D’s path to majority less clear)

<U>AZ</U&gt Arizona US Senate seat : Jim Pederson taking on Republican incumbent Kyl Very interesting poll numbers and analysis.  I think the race still favors Kyl, but this is encouraging.  In addition, even if Pederson loses, it would still be smart to run candidates and lay out what Democrats stand for.  Try some re-framing  in AZ and see how it works.

<U>MD</U&gt Cardin (D) gets an endorsement from Steny Hoyer.

<U>NY</U&gt (WakeupCall) A Quinnipiac poll of regis voters shows Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) easily defeating potential GOP challengers in ’06: Pataki (60%-32%), Pirro (62%-27%), Cox (63%-25%) and Weld (63%-26%); 60 percent of statewide register voters polled want Sen. Clinton to promise to serve a full second six-year term if reelected.

<U>VA</U&gt Allen visits NH for two fundraisers for his 2006 Senate re-election campaign.

<U>VT</U&gt Gov. James Douglas (R) will not run for ths US Senate. Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) will benefit.… (WakeupCall) VT LG Brian Dubie (R) is considered a possible SEN candidate and he “hasn’t ruled it out” (WCAX.com)…. (Earlybird) Richard Tarrant, a millionaire Republican businessman who has never held elected office, is ‘fairly committed’ to running for” Senate in Vermont, the Rutland Herald reports.

Governor

• Donate to the Democratic Governors Association
• (AP) “The Republican Governors’ Association has planned a series of events surrounding the Derby festivities in Louisville this week. Meanwhile, the Democratic Governors’ Association has a ‘DGA Kentucky Derby Fundraising Event’ scheduled for Friday and Saturday in Louisville, according to its Web site.”

<U>AZ</U&gt Ex-Gov. Fife Symington (R) isn’t going to run for governor.

<U>CA</U&gt NYT: In California, Governor Slips From Heights

<U>KS</U&gt (WakeupCall) Rep. Jerry Moran (R) will not run for KS GOV, a move seen as giving Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) “a big boost toward a second term” (Kansas City Star)… KS Senate Maj Leader Derek Schmidt (R) “doesn’t want to run for governor. But he might” (Lawrence Journal-World)… Rep. Jim Ryun (R-KS) and AG Phill Kline (R) “said they had decided against” KS GOV bids (Lawrence Journal-World).

<U>MA</U&gt (Earlybird)  “After a gala event last summer designed to promote the governor’s national ambitions, [Republican] Mitt Romney’s political consultants billed the Massachusetts corporations that sponsored the event an extra $105,000, saying the money was needed to cover ‘additional catering,'” the Boston Globe reports. “But a Globe examination has raised questions about whether those costs were incurred and about the role played by the company of the governor’s top political consultant, Michael Murphy, one of the organizers of the party.”

<U>NE</U&gt Tom Osborne to seek Republican nod for governor instead of a fourth term in Congress.

<U>NY</U&gt (Note)  New York Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D) tells the NYP that he doesn’t think William Weld will actually make next year’s gubernatorial race against Eliot Spitzer. And Note the Bloomberg lack of interest in moving to Albany… Quinnipiac poll has Spitzer beating Pataki and Weld. Diary by blksista Beats Pataki 53% to 32%, and beats Weld 60% to 16%.

<U>OH</U&gt Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) won’t run for governor. Dem officially in the race is Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman… (WakeupCall) The Montgomery Co Dem Chair said OH Rep. Ted Strickland (D) has decided to seek the Dem nod for GOV; another Dem said his announcement would come 5/9 (Dayton Daily News)… Strickland is a former prison psychologist and Methodist minister.

<U>PA</U&gt (Gov.com) PA Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll insists that she will run for re-election in 2006, but some well-known political names continue to be mentioned as possible Democratic primary challengers.

<U>SC</U&gt SC Gov. Mark Sanford (R) could be challenged by Democratic St. Sen. Tommy Moore… (Earlybird)  Dr. Oscar Lovelace (R) “says he will challenge” South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford “for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in June 2006,” AP reports.

<U>TX</U&gt Kay Bailey Hutchinson’s stealth campaign against Rick Perry (R) Possible Republican intra-party fight.

<U>WI</U&gt Rep. Mark Green (R) is running for governor.

• Donate to the DNC
• (WakeupCall) Rev. Pat Robertson mentioned Sens. Sam Brownback (R-KS) and George Allen (R-VA) as potential WH ’08 candidates and said that Rudy Giuliani would “make a good president.” Robertson said of Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist, however: “I just don’t see him as a future president” (“This Week”).
• Travels from the past week: Brownback in MI, Hagel in NH, Jeb Bush in GA (Jeb Bush is still mentioned as a Veep candidate), Giuliani (commencement at NC)
• Clark and Edwards stay busy
• Charlie Cook on 2008
• Immigration Issue Looms for 2008 If the economy sucks, lower income workers will find staunch anti-immigration candidates attractive.

<U>Clark</U&gt Wesley Clark returns to NH for the Manchester Dems’ Flag Day fundraiser 6/12.

<U>Clinton</U&gt (Earlybird) “Women in government owe it to their forebears to keep working for equal rights and fight voter apathy,” Clinton “told a packed convention hall Friday,” AP reports… (Note) A safe 2007/8 bet: If Hillary Clinton runs for president, part of the “we told you so” message will involve North Korea… (Earlybird)  According to a new Quinnipiac University survey, “just over half of New York voters don’t want” Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., “to try for the White House in 2008, and most think she should promise to serve a full six-year term when she runs for Senate again,” the NYDN reports.

<U>Hagel</U&gt (WakeupCall) In NH, Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) “told jokes, offered kind words about the state’s GOP lawmakers, praised his audience, posed for pictures and shared his thoughts” (Omaha World-Herald).

<U>Kerry</U&gt Kerry writes an op-ed in Minneapolis Star Tribune: “In an era when politicians like to use the word ‘values,’ insuring kids is a test of who just talks about family values and who really values families.”… (Earlybird)  Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., “is using a database of contact information for about 3 million voters that he compiled during his presidential campaign to position himself for another White House run in 2008,” The Hill reports. “Democratic insiders say that Kerry’s unprecedented direct access to so many current and onetime supporters is a huge advantage heading into the next Democratic presidential primary. But his greatest strength, the experience of winning his party’s nomination last year, is also his greatest weakness, as many former supporters became disillusioned by his loss to President Bush and now blame him for losing a race they believe should have been won.”

<U>Richardson</U&gt (WakeupCall) NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D) will keynote the next Politics and Eggs gathering 6/7 (Manchester Union Leader).

<U>Vilsack</U&gt (WakeupCall) A Research 2000 poll shows 43% of likely IA voters approve of Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) running for WH ’08. 56% approve of his job as gov. (release).

<U>Sen. Cat Killer</U&gt Stu Rothenberg asks In ’08 Race, Can Frist Avoid Becoming the GOP’s John Kerry?

Frist is widely viewed as a favorite of many in the GOP establishment, including some of the party’s top money people. As the party’s leader in the Senate he has national contacts, as well as the stature and name identification few others in his party enjoy.

The story of Frist, a heart surgeon by training who has had a Zelig-like ability to appear at medical emergencies around the Capitol, has been repeated so often that it has become the stuff of legend – an undeniable asset for a politician who wants to appeal to voters who don’t like or trust politicians. And as a doctor, the Tennessee Republican can talk about the critical health care issue with first-hand knowledge.

Like Kerry, Frist has an impressive bio. A graduate of Princeton with an M.D. from Harvard, he founded and ran Vanderbilt’s transplant center. Eight years after entering the world of politics, he was selected to lead Senate Republicans.

But it isn’t easy being the Majority Leader these days. Not only is he caught in a political tangle on judicial filibusters that could dramatically affect his presidential ambitions, but President Bush’s Social Security agenda is stalled, and D.C. insiders whisper (fairly or unfairly) that Frist is in over his head as leader.

[…]

Clearly, Frist needs to ingratiate himself with the right. But his long-term White House prospects won’t be helped if he comes to be defined primarily by the Terri Schiavo case or the fight over the filibustering of judges. He certainly can’t appear to “sell out” to Democrats, but he could show “leadership” by working on a compromise and avoiding a nuclear explosion.

[…]

Republican observers call him “colorless” and the “inertia candidate.” They agree that he is bright and analytical, but they continue to question whether he has the kind of political instincts he will need in a race for the White House. Again, sounds a lot like Kerry, doesn’t it?

“He’s the default candidate,” said one insider who thinks Frist’s presidential prospects may well be at their zenith the day before he begins his campaign for president.

[…]

“The only way he can win is if nobody else catches fire,” one strategist told me. Somehow, Frist needs to show Republican opinion makers that he has some of that fire Republicans will be looking for.

• Jim McGreevey poll numbers: 43% said they would never vote for him for reasons other than his sexuality and 6% said they would never vote for him because he is gay (Newark Star-Ledger).
• McGreevey May Still Have Political Future

Though New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey (D) “left office in disgrace,” a new Zogby poll shows “that 49% of New Jerseyans would consider voting for him in a future election.” “The poll even found that 30 percent of those who identified themselves as Republicans would consider voting for McGreevey, a Democrat.”