I was avoiding work and gamboling about the web when I ran into this little gem of unreason on the CNN Money page.
Quote:
“Existing home sales jumped to a record last month as persistent low mortgage rates helped keep the real estate market sizzling.”
“The real estate group [National Association of Realtors] said the strong sales are a sign the market is fundamentally strong, and not in a possible bubble.”
I see.
If home sales and the prices of homes were falling we would be in a bubble. But since sales and prices are rising we are not in a bubble. The standard definition of a bubble is, of course, falling prices and sales. Known to every financial anaylst. Yup. Yup. Yup.
The the intersection of the groups chief economist with reality can be gauged by:
“…David Lereah, the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. “When we look at recent job gains, we see all the positive factors coming together to coincide with a powerful demographic demand for housing.”
Not only are we not in a bubble the labor market is doing just great. Unemployment is falling, job creation is steaming ahead, and businesses are finding it hard to find workers to fill jobs.
The mind boggles.
If anyone happens to need a Chief Economist I, too, am willing to shovel out the BS with a straight face – if the money is right.
It’s all just like the corollary in Iraq, where the recent upsurge in violence, with over 700 Iraqis and 60 Americans killed so far this month, is further proof that the insurgency is desperate and petering out. At least, that’s what the Administration tells me, and they’d never deceive us, right?
Then again, what do we expect here? The chief economist and the president of the National Association of Realtors aren’t going to go running around saying “We’re doomed! The crash is imminent! Sell now for whatever you can get before rices drop by 40%!”
Similar people said similar things about dot-com companies and the internet economy in 1999 and early 2000. A lot of folks followed their advice and went down with the ship.
I don’t expect the NBR to come out and tell the truth and that, in a nutshell, is what is wrong in the US.
This little flimflam is just one more example in the recent American habit of hiding reality behind a bunch of words. It isn’t only the housing market, it is also the budget deficit, the trade deficit, the hidden inflation, the collapse of our urban areas, the First Lady praising a Thug, the serious possibility of an influenza pandemic, and – as you said – Iraq. And this is by no means a complete list.
Then we can move on to the ‘Culture War’ where the same kind of problem exists. People string a bunch of words together and present the mess as an intellectual arguement. Intelligent Design, Gay marriage, good ol’ Tush Limpblah (AM radio in general) on anything, Terri Schiavo, the fillibuster foo-foo, and etc. etc. etc.
What worries me is this ever-increasing cult of Unreason that is spreading in the US. This cult is not limited to the Right – it is also present on the Left and in the Middle to boot – and our news media is busily spreading the word. I’m not quixotic enough to think little old me, on one blog, can stop this idiocy. But its got to start somewhere and this is the only way I have to do anything.
Your point that the Cult of Unreason is present on the left and in the middle as well as on the right is one of the principal reasons I’ve taken to posting on blogs such as BMT or dKos. I’ve long since grown inured to fabricated wingnuttery from the right, and essentially nothing they say any more is capable of surprising me (appalling me, yes, but I can no longer be shocked by them).
But what bothers me far more is when the same sort of unreason is coming from our own side. Whenever this happens, it gives all the nutcases at Free Republic, Little Green Footballs, Limbaugh, O’Reilly, Coulter or Savage the ammunition they need to portray us all as conspiracy-theory dittoheads of the left. (See my argument in this dKos comment, “Discrediting the Messenger”, regarding right-wing attacks on the media.)
It’s important to reign ourselves in and to debunk the unsupportable with cold, hard, verifiable facts. That’s where people like us come in, hopefully acting as restraints on the excesses of overenthusiastic liberals/progressives and adding a bit more to the overall discussion. Certainly, one person can help stop the idiocy when it comes from our corner. If nothing else, it also allows us to better refine our thoughts, crafting a better argument to be used against the Cult of Unreason on the right. Ben Franklin said, “We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.” As the political minority party in 2005, we need to keep this in mind.
You should add all of the above. I wanted to check all of them.
Those are some of the best options I’ve seen on a poll – but I almost chocked on my drink.
you can guess what I picked.
I’m not worthy!
I’m not worthy!
I’m not worthy!
I never have trusted “experts” on housing. As long as the phone keeps ringing and people are willing to pay, the work goes on. I don’t know how it is in your part of the world, but here in CA we’re not seeing any slowdowns at all – existing or new. That said, housing is only one place to watch. At least as important is commercial/industrial construction. Slowing now.
Want to find out how it is in your area? Drive a subdivision to see how far ahead they’re building. The first indication of a slowdown is when there are only one or two foundations poured ahead, and the ground beyond is growing weeds.