While I realize not a lot of people follow Swiss politics closely, I’m gonna keep y’all informed, as I learn about my new country.
So…two days after a 54% yes vote (kinda close) on joining the Schengen agreements, today: (from Swissinfo.com)
“Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the Austrian-born EU foreign-affairs commissioner, warned on Monday of the consequences if the Swiss refuse to extend an existing treaty on the free movement of people to include the ten new European Union member states.”
A Swiss nationwide vote on the issue is due to be held on September 25.
Ferrero-Waldner said a “no” in September could spell the end of Switzerland’s bid to join the EU’s passport-free Schengen area and potentially scupper an existing set of bilateral treaties.
While it appears Ferrero-Waldner’s statement has caught at least two of the seven Swiss “Presidents” off guard, there appears to be a big potential difficulty looming: (again from Swissinfo)
“Swissinfo: Can we expect Brussels to wade into the campaign in the run-up to September?”
Karin Gilland Lutz, a Bern Polical Scientist: “It’s difficult to know, but I don’t think it would be a very clever move. The Swiss don’t like it when they feel there is outside interference. This has sometimes been a feature of other referendums, for example in Ireland. Whenever an EU commissioner tried to stick his or her nose into European debates there, it never went down well.”
swissinfo: Finally, if you had to place a bet on the outcome of the September vote, where would you be putting your money?
K.G.L.: Definitely on the “no” side. It will be incredibly difficult for supporters of the treaty on the free movement of people (from the 10 new EU contries into Switzerland) to win this one, because the People’s Party is good at playing on people’s fears – and with this vote they have the perfect opportunity to play with fears about unemployment, and this is something many people are worried about right now.
Those in favour of extending the accord on the free movement of people are really going to have to work much harder than they did in the run-up to Schengen if they are to stand any chance of winning in September.”
Long story short, Switzerland could end up completely outside of the EU, as far as security accords, if they vote “no” in September. Also know this: the Swiss have been reaching out to the Americans, and talking about this in the press. Developing story…
My first thought is that the European Union is pressuring Switzerland, who will pretty predictably vote “no”…and away from the EU. But into the hands of the Americans? And I wonder how the people here would vote on that?
What do you mean with your statement:
I haven’t seen anything about this in the press, where have you seen it. I would be pretty amazed if the Swiss would reach out to Americans at present, considering the sentiment here. At least with the people I know, there is more frustration and anger against Americans then against the EU, even with the pressuring from the EU. The pressure is an old game that has been going on for a while.
I saw quotes from Calmy-Rey in the St Gallen Tagblatt a week ago or so…but I did a Google search just now and found these articles from Swissinfo:
http://swissinfo.org/sen/swissinfo.html?siteSect=111&sid=5803261&cKey=1116663331000
and
http://swissinfo.org/sen/swissinfo.html?siteSect=111&sid=5800333
Now, I may be reading more into this than I should be…but still, it is noteworthy that this is coming out now. I can’t help but think that the Swiss government is considering alternatives. I agree and don’t think the Swiss people would be all that happy with it…but if it meant jobs and a better economy, who knows? (I hope you se this, as this diary has already scrolled off)
the title of the first article is “the Swiss put business before aid”, and the second article, is “The Swiss turn their gaze beyond the EU”…
Bob, thanks for the links – I will have to see some other sources, I haven’t seen much in the press and the St.Galler Tagblatt is as far as I know a rather conservative newspaper and SVP oriented. Looking at the links, I am not sure there is anything new in these information. I mean the business ties to the US are tight. It is amazing, but many Swiss multinationals are already forced to cooperate with US laws to be able to work in the US. I am not yet convinced – however, I am sure, on the other hand, that many at the higher management levels would love for this to happen. However, just looking at the map and the positions of Switzerland it would be an illusion to believe that Switzerland could ignore the EU.
Thanks Fran…I think you are more level-headed than I on this…though I guess time will tell for sure. I do think the Swiss will vote “no” in september, especially since this EU minister has put her foot in Swiss affairs. what do you think? and if it is a no, then what do the Swiss do, since it then is effectively saying no to the EU. Curious as to your thoughts on this…
Cheers!
Bob, don’t be to impressed by what is going on. Okay, it could be different this time, we will have to wait and see. However, when I look back there always have been these pressure games and shouting matches between Switzerland and the EU. And so far Switzerland always survived.
From my experience not much would change. Why not ask, what will the EU do if Switzerland says no. Close the border, the fastest transit route from Germany to Italy is through Switzerland. You forget one thing, those bilateral treaties contain also things the EU wants from Switzerland. Will they start harassing Swiss companies in the EU. They could, but most EU countries have relatively high unemployment rates. I guess not much would happen if they go after small companies, but going after Swiss Multinationals??? They probably would just outsource.
And if the Swiss say no in fall, it would be a no to the free movement of people, something the Swiss always have been anxious about (even before the EU existed) – it would not be a no to treaties with the EU in general, like the yes to Schengen, was not a yes for the EU in general. Don’t mix the vote in fall up with a vote about the EU.
This is somewhat confusing, but my first guess is that Fererro-Waldner is trying to score points with the 10 new member nations. As I understand from a first look, the Eastern European nations signed the Schengen treaty a year ago, but it has not been implemented with respect to them (haven’t been able to find out if/when that’s scheduled).
Interesting.
I think Ferrero-Waldner was being impolitic…at least as far as Switzerland goes. She’s Austrian, she knows the Swiss sensitivities to outside influence. It seems to me there’s something else going on…why not let the Swiss finesse their own issues? Why make it front and center, giving the SVP an opportunity to go on the offensive…which they have. Something is going on, though it isn’t clear what to me…