2005, 2006, 2008 Campaign News, Notes & Analysis for 6/4 to 6/10

I’m going to try and write more of my own analysis in these campaign news compilation diaries. Campaign news (2005, 2006, and 2008), election laws, voting issues, etc. are covered. Items via a variety of sources (i.e. The Note, National Journal, etc.), diaries at DKos, or found by me through Google News.  

Unless otherwise noted, opinions in links aren’t mine (nor do I necessarily endorse them). I try to separate my personal comments from the news, but I didn’t always make it as clear as I could. I’m still trying to work that out.

Electoral Issues, Party News, Shifts in Voting Pref, etc.


NJ Gov.

NJ other Electing a Progressive in NJ : Jun Choi for Edison, NJ Mayor, by MrLiberal… (Newsie update: Jun Choi wins in what NJN political pundits called “a bit of an upset.”)


NYC Mayor (WakeupCall) A Newsday/NY 1 poll shows that in a 2-way Dem primary match-up for NYC mayor, Ferrer leads Manhattan BP Virginia Fields 48%-33% among Dem voters. In a general match-up, NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) leads Ferrer 46%-39% among regis. voters (release).

Detroit Mayor Some discussion in this diary. Check the replies.

San Antonio Mayor Results and discussion in this diary


House of Representatives

News Bits:

CA11 Pombo in the Crosshairs? CA Dems Hint at a Challenge, by wu mingMore on this at The Stakeholder

NH1 Schoolbard member Gary Dodds (D) will announce his candidacy against incumbent Rep. Jeb Bradley (R). The district usually votes Republican. An uphill battle.

IL6 IL-06: Roskam Raises $150K, by michael in chicago

IN2 Rep. Chris Chocola (R) to get a challenger in Joe Donnelly?

MD? Baltimore Health Commissioner Dr. Peter Beilenson (D) is going to run in Rep. Ben Cardin’s district Cardin is running for Senate.

MN1 Incumbent Rep. Gil Guknecht (R) has a challenger. Tim Walz (D) is a teacher and National Guard Vet. Website: here.

TX22 Defeating Tom DeLay and returning integrity to TX-22, by Nick Lampson for Congress


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FL Katharine “Tammy Faye” Harris is in.

MD MD Republican Senate Candidate Endorses Hate Speech!, by Lavoisier1794

MN MN Senate – Wetterling Internal Poll, by dperl99 Don’t take the poll without noting that Wetterling has a major name ID advantage.

MT Dean in Montana: Values, Tester, Western Strategy, by Bob Brigham

ND The White House is trying to recruit ND Gov. John Hoeven (R) to run against Sen. Kent Conrad (D). Conrad is strong on budget issues. Go give him some cash: Kent Conrad for US Senate

NE NYT article on Ben Nelson (D)

NY (WakeupCall) Ed Cox (R) announced he has enlisted ex-legal adviser to Swift Boat Veterans for Truth Ben Ginsberg to serve as his NY SEN exploratory cmte counsel (New York Daily News). (Newsie: I see Cox would like to be closer to the Watergate part of Nixon’s political career, as opposed to the starting EPA and opening China part.)

PA PA-SEN: Casey, Santorum, Hafer News, by acboninSome Questions for Chuck Pennacchio and His Supporters, by danielua Questions that Pennacchio will have to answer, whether he wants to or not. Supporters of an open primary have said that it helped candidates hone message and the like.  The same is true for Pennacchio.  Those questions are going to come up in one form or another later in the primary race and in the general election should Pennacchio get that far. The Pennacchio campaign would be wise to get out in front of this… (WakeupCall) A Franklin & Marshall College Keystone poll shows that in the ’06 race for PA SEN, Treas. Bob Casey Jr. (D) defeats Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) 44%-37% among regis. PA voters (release)… MyDD has analysis on the poll

WV (WakeupCall) A Garin-Hart-Yang (D) poll shows that 51% of likely WV voters would re-elect Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) in ’06 and 41% would vote for Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) (release).


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CA Schwarzenegger approval timeline (w/pic), by Marching Orders

MA (WakeupCall) A GOP official and a Healey adviser said that Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) has “promised” to endorse MA LG Kerry Healey (R) for MA GOV “if he decides to run for president” (Boston Globe).

NM (WakeupCall) The NM GOP ran a radio ad in NM and NH attacking Dem Gov. Bill Richardson for his “rich and famous lifestyle” (AP).

TX A New Direction for Texas, by Chris Bell

Pres 2008

  • Donate to the DNC
  • Dean talks about what to do for 2008
  • (AP) Former NC Sen. John Edwards and VA Gov. Mark Warner visit Iowa this month. (Newsie: A few months ago, it was reported that Warner (with his family) was going to go to IA to hang out with the Vilsacks.  Warner apparently gets along well with many governors, as he is chairman of the NGA.)
  • Immigration expected to be a major issue in 2008 and GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo from CO is trying to elevate the issue.
  • (WakeupCall) Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) will return to NH 6/11; Wesley Clark will keynote a breakfast in NH 6/12; and Sen. George Allen (R-VA) will be the featured speaker at a luncheon in NH 6/25 (Manchester Union Leader).

Allen (Hotline) Slate’s Starr writes that Allen’s CoS/ex-Thune campaign mgr Dick Wadhams can “take Allen from a little-known senator to a spot” on the ’08 ticket. Wadhams “is positioned to jump in where Karl Rove gets off.” Rove and Wadhams “have known each other since their days” in the CRs, and they “run similar campaigns.” Like Rove, “Wadhams didn’t hesitate to run attack ads and regularly belittle his opponents.” Wadhams “is emerging as his most obvious successor” (6/10).

Bayh Bayh Insists He’s Not Decided on 2008. (Newsie: A “senator for life” doesn’t give big bucks to Anita Dunn for nothing. I’d say Bayh is leaning heavily towards running.)… Good Bayh in 2008?, by kaineforgovernor A good diary that touches upon other candidates as well; good discussion (if you overlook some uneducated comments) in the replies below… (WakeupCall) Giving a “more direct response” than he has “previously given” when asked if he will run for president, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) said: “Yes, I’m doing the practical things to keep that open as an option” (Ft. Wayne Journal Gazette).

Biden (Hotline) At the FL Dems’ annual J-J fundraiser dinner 6/11, “Turning Florida Blue,” the keynote address will be delivered by Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) (release, 6/9).

Clinton (WakeupCall) Asked if he is “hoping” that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) will be the WH ’08 Dem candidate, RNC Chair Ken Mehlman said: “I think that just as in 1979 when Democrats were relishing the possibility of running against that right-wing crazy Ronald Reagan, they made a mistake” (“Meet the Press”)…

Edwards Video blog link hereEdwards Claims to Be Unsure about running for President in 08… Roundup of Edwards news from MyDD

McCain (WakeupCall) Bush media consultant Mark McKinnon “has committed to help Sen. John McCain in a second presidential bid” (Dallas Morning News). (Newsie: McKinnon is a former Democrat and really, really good at what he does.)… 2 reasons to think McCain will run for President

Richardson Bill Richardson is spending a lot of time in NH

Warner Howard Fineman: Mark Warner, the Democratic Contender As usual, Fineman oversimplifies and pushes often-inaccurate-conventional wisdom about campaigns that too many pundits buy into, but since Warner is rather obscure, it’s worth reading for the 08-obsessed, anyway.

Sen. Cat Killer National Journal’s Insiders Poll: Most see Frist’s presidential chances diminished

State & Local Races; Miscellaneous


Please post in the replies of official Democratic candidate websites (esp. those for candidates who will be in tough races come 2005 or 2006) that you know of.  Thanks!

Consider Making a Donation to Democratic Candidates
Donate strategically or based on who you agree with more. Early money is always helpful. Not only does it allow the campaign to get advertising out there earlier, but it also helps the campaign plan expenditures.  Many campaigns end up with money leftover, because so much is donated in the final weeks of the campaign.  They didn’t know they were going to get so much money, and didn’t plan accordingly.  Keep in mind that TV ads are locked in about a week before the day of the election, so ad production ceases around then.  Purchases for ad time tends to happen months or weeks earlier.  Campaigns need flexibility as well.  The best ways for getting the message out to voters are different in different states.  In addition, early money (esp. in House races) helps attract money from DCCC, which has limited resources.  Early money can also send a message to a Republican incumbent.  He/she may not be able to campaign elsewhere if he/she has to deal with a challenge (however minor) at home.
Electoral Politics and Official & Unofficial Democratic Party Campaign Websites and Blogs Look at the categories in the beginning, and go to the section with campaign sites. Sites are listed by state. There are mixed in with blogs focused on the politics in a state or region.

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