Juan Cole posted this at 4:30 AM. His sleep deprivation was likely overcome by the shock from reading Tom Friedman:
Tom Friedman, writing in the New York Times, makes several policy decisions with regard to Iraq. The first is to stay the course until an effective Iraqi force could be stood up. Another is to find ways of re-involving the United Nations in Iraq. Both of these ideas have things to recommend them, though Bush is highly unlikely to go for the latter.
The third is to double US troop strength in Iraq to 260,000 servicemen.
I’m not sure why Tom doesn’t know this, but we don’t have the troops to do that.
That image wasn’t Prof. Cole’s idea. … More below:
There are only 10 fighting divisions in the Army, and standing up more would take 5 years. (A division is typically between 20,000 and 25,000 troops). You can’t put all ten into Iraq (remember Afghanistan and South Korea?), and couldn’t keep them all there permanently if you could. Friedman’s suggestion literally cannot be implemented.
As early as 2003, military journalists were pointing to the problems in maintaining troop strength in Iraq. At that time, it seemed the only hope was to widen the coalition. That did not happen, and probably now cannot. The alternative is to kidnap the reservists and keep them in Iraq for 18 months at a time. That is what has been done, and it isn’t likely to help recruitment of reservists.
Moreover, a counter-insurgency is not always best fought with large numbers. We had 500,000 men in Vietnam, and that did not go well. Counter-insurgency requires political successes in which you get the people on your side and manage to entice the insurgent leaders into giving up violence. (Hint: So far little sign of successful counter-insurgency in Iraq.)
So the suggestion is impractical. And if it were practical, it would not work.
It is an index of how desperate the US political class is that impractical ideas are put forward by major journalists in newspapers of record that have already reported on their impracticality.
P.S. Booman regaled us yesterday with Friedman’s remarks on Toyota vs. General Motors.
Iraq near perilous tipping point –Isn’t it always?
The rest of the country has gone shopping That’s the alarm, Tom, it’s time to wake up. The President told us to shop. It’s our mission.
Rumsfeld’s decision to invade on the cheap.
No, the invasion went like clockwork. It was the Neo-Cons’ collective decision to occupy on the cheap that created The Mess Nobody In The Galaxy Could Ever Have Forseen.
Who is training the insurgent-fascists? Nobody Didn’t Saddam train many of them?
we need “a bold mobilizing strategy” right now.
I agree. We need a group of bright, reality-based leaders to work together to forge some kind of democratic system of government for The United States of America.
How he won a Pulitzer is beyond me. He is leaving the Times soon, but not soon enough.
And isn’t it odd that none of his editors noticed that little problem?
I watched him and Maureen Dowd on the UCSB channel last week. I think they said they have some editorial freedoms. But someone must check their work before it’s printed. I would hope.
There are three elements to a guerilla war:
You can’t win a guerilla war without winning over the auxillary.
Right now estimates of the Iraq auxillary is about 90%
ergo, we ain’t gonna win this thing.
my 2 cents.
That’s fascinating and I’ve not seen it elsewhere … possible just because I can’t read everything.
But, it’d be great if you broadened that into a diary. I think we’d all be interested.
Hi Susan,
You probably haven’t read it because it comes from my military training, unless of course you dig reading dry military manuals.