This is a much more difficult diary to write that my last on Irag, simply because the inforamtion coming out of Afganistan is much more less.
Below the fold:
Ok, I am not a foreign policy expert. Nevertheless, my credentials include being an enlisted Green Beret in the Army and then after college (UMich – Russian & Eastern European Studies major), a Naval intelligence officer with experience at SEAL Team EIGHT. So my take on this comes from a tactical rather than strategical point of view. Please argue with me if you disagree.
When the whole Afganistan thing started, my best friend (and ex-wife, Olga) said that she never expected to hear “Khandahar” in the news again. She is from the USSR, yea the old name, in Komsomol and everything. She is now in the Virginia National Guard and since she is a geological prospecting engineer (specialty in radioactive ores & minerals) as well as a secondary MOS in geo-engineering, I told her to never put on paper her native language. I don’t want to see her deployed. Why?
Well, let me let you on a little secret from a non-classified briefing I attended in the spring of 2002. Since the WOT, we have a military footprint in every country in Central Asia. Why? OIL!
Yes, folks, this is about oil. This is about getting a pipeline to the ocean with minimum danger. The smokescreen is Iraq, watch Iraq but that is not where the interests lies. We’re talking Azerbaijani oil fields and stable countries to export that oil. Well, Iran is the most stable country to have a pipeline through, but before Afganistan was our best bet (and you really thought we cared about human rights?). The Taliban kept the country stable much like Tito in Yugoslavia. But now, we have a problem. The only stable country is Iran, we would like to see a pipeline maybe to Turkey, but that means going through unstable countries. We can’t abide Tehran, so it must be Kabul.
But as I said in my last diary, we must have the Auxiallry on our side. Unfortunately, these are the folks who are growing a great product that I try out everytime I visit Amsterdam. We are eradicating their means of production. This will turn them against us and toward the warlords.
As my ex said, it wasn’t until the Soviets went after the imams that the populace turned against the occupying power. Well, like Columbia, we’re turning off the populace by going after their livlihood.
So, we need Afganistan for the oil pipeline, but we’re losing it by oppressing the average farmer. I am not advocating the growth of drugs here, just expressing my vision of cause and effect.
Until we cater to the will of the populace, or support an alternative crop production, we will find ourselves in the Soviet dilemna.
Those are my thoughts.