Month: June 2005

Countdown to 100$ oil (5) – OPEC inexorably raises floor price

This has been posted both on the European Tribune and on dKos. Is it a waste of diary space to post it here? answer the poll below.

Opec suspends talks on increasing output

Crude prices settled slightly down after rising in late trade on news that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had suspended talks about increasing production quotas by 500,000 barrels a day.

Opec said it would resume negotiations only if the oil price hit $60 a barrel.

Sheikh Ahmad Fahad Al-Sabah, Opec president and Kuwait’s oil minister, said $53 for West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, was an “ideal” price.

This is a higher level than Opec had previously stated.

At a meeting last month, most Opec ministers stated that $40-$50 was a suitable price range for consumers and producers.

Earlier “Countdown Diaries”:

Countdown to 100$ oil (4) – WSJ wingnuts vs China

Countdown to 100$ oil (3) – industry is beginning to suffer

Countdown to 100$ oil (2) – the views of the elites on peak oil

Countdown to 100$ oil (1)

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

For most of the 90s, the reference for oil prices was the 15-20$/bbl range. Then OPEC made its fateful decision to increase its quotas as the Asian crisis was underway, and caused the oil price to collapse in late 98 – early 99 as supply increased at a time of weakened demand. The reaction was led by an alliance of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Mexico (not an OPEC member) to put back some credibility into the quotas, and impose some discipline on the cartel. Norway helped from the sidelines; Saudi Arabia then hit the new idea of focusing on international stocks, anddecided to support prices by preventing these stocks from building up. This new energy within OPEC, in a context of strong economic growth, led oil prices into the high 30, which started to piss off the West somewhat (it bit especially hard in Europe at that time as the euro was only worth 80+ US cents then).

So, OPEC started suggesting that 22-28$/bl was a good range for oil prices, and pretty much everybody acquiesed. Oil producers were happy; oil companies were happy, and oil consumers were happy to see some stability – and lower prices than the incomfortable 2000 spike.

Prices increased again in the run up to the Iraqi War, as geopolitical uncertainty took its toll, but they fell brutally as the ground campaign took place very quickly. It started inching back up as it appeared that the situation in Iraq was not going to stabilise, and was suddenly pushed up a lot higher throughout 2004 when eveybody was surprised by the unexpectedly strong growth of Chinese demand and imports.

But even a few months ago, this was all seen as temporary, with “financial speculators”, the odd weather pattern or the “geopolitical premium” alternatively used as excuses for why prices were really higher than fundamentals warranted. Well, we know how prices have behaved since then, but the interesting thing is how OPEC has completely shelved the 22-28$ band in recent weeks.

  • first it was Saudi Arabia mentioning a 30-40$ range (as late as last month);
  • then at the recent OPEC meeting two weeks ago, they stated that 50$ was their new floor;
  • and now they’ve decided to use 60$ as the trigger before they do anything.

Of course, this changes very little to the fact that there is little they can actually do to ramp up production and thus bring prices down, but the spees with which they have raised the floor is pretty amazing. Are they pushing their luck (aggressively bidding for higher prices)? Or are they trying to hide their impotence by putting the bar when they would act higher and higher so that they don’t actually have to act (knowing they can’t do it)?

This only signals more price increases, and thus warrants a countdown diary.

DSM FOIA Conyers Goes After Records (Breaking)

“52 House members file FOIA request

seeking documents related to Downing Street

minutes.”

RAWSTORY: BREAKING JUNE 30, DSM FOIA

“Representative John Conyers, Jr., (D-MI)

House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member,

along with 51 other Members today submitted a

broad and comprehensive FOIA request to the

White House, the Department of Defense, and

the Department of State seeking any and all

documents and materials concerning the

Downing Street Minutes and the lead up to the

Iraq war, RAW STORY has learned.”

“In addition, the Members also formally

requested that the House Committees on

Judiciary, Armed Services, International

Relations, and the Permanent Select Committee

on Intelligence commence hearings on the

Downing Street Minutes.”

Well, things are coming along nicely.

I ran two searches on diaries to see if this was covered.. so for now I’ll go with it.

The letter:

Mr. Brett Gerry
Office of Counsel to the President
Ms. Margaret Grafield

Information & Privacy Co-Ordinator
Mr C.Y. Talbott
Chief, Office of Freedom of Information & Security

June 30, 2005

Re: Request Submitted Under the Freedom of Information Act.

Dear Sirs and Madam:

This letter constitutes a request pursuant to the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).

Recently leaked memoranda from Great Britain indicate that the US and the UK may have engaged in communications over the use of Iraqi intelligence, the existence of weapons of mass destruction, and potential military action in Iraq throughout the summer of 2002. This is allege to have occurred long before the Administration sought Congressional authority to engage in such military action. Because these memoranda raise serious questions over when these important decisions were made, we seek the release of all agency records, including but not limited o handwritten notes, formal correspondence, electronic mail messages, intelligence reports and other memoranda, as described in the numbered paragraphs below:

1. All original statements, documents, press releases, and the like,. and copies of the same, publicly issued, or available related to the lead-up to military action in Iraq, beginning with President Bush’s transition into office in 2000 through the present.

2. All original documents, and copies of the same, as well as statements related to the subject matter of the Downing Street Minutes of July 23, 2002 and all similar and related memoranda.

3. All records regarding the collection and analysis of intelligence related to Iraq and to whether it possessed weapons of mass destruction, the type of weapons of mass destruction Iraq possessed, and any ties between Iraq and al Qaeda for the last ten years, i.e. January 1, 1995 to the date of issuance of the records in response to this request.

4. All records relating to the planning and preparation for military action in Iraq available in any and all entities of the Executive Branch of United States Government for the period from January 1, 1995 to October 16, 2002.

5. all records relating to sorties flown over Iraq in which bombs were dropped and to the selection of targets for the dropping of such bombs for the period from January 1, 1995 to October 16, 2002.

Please include all applicable records which are:
* held by constituent entities of the agency,
* incorporated into the agency’s files and read by the agency,
* held by entities within the Executive Office of the President and not otherwise protected from disclosure by the Presidential Records Act.

We request a waiver of fees on the grounds that disclosure of the requested records is in the public interest and because disclosure “is likely to contribute significantly to the public understanding of the activities or operations of the government and is not primarily in the commercial interest of the requester.

Numerous news articles reflect the significant public interest in the records we seek. Disclosure of the requested records will contribute significantly to the public’s understanding of government conduct.

We recognize that several of FOIA’s exemptions relating to the protection of national security interests and the government’s deliberative processes may pertain to this request. Insofar as you feel these exemptions or criterion do apply, we respectfully request that you only redact sensitive information and still provide responsive memoranda, correspondence and other documentation in redacted form. This should include any e-mail correspondence as well, including the disclosure of the identities of correspondents, the mailing date for said correspondence, and the message’s subject line, wherever possible. similarly, becaue the national security exemption only protects information whose disclosure would impair national security, we expect any documentation containing intelligence now publicly known to be released in its original form or redacted only as necessary to protect the disclosure of information still falling within the appropriate FOIA exemption.

If our request is denied in whole or in part, we ask that you justify all deletions, omissions, or denials by reference to specific exemptions of the FOIA. We expect you to release all sefrefable portions of otherwise exempt material. We reserve the right to appeal a decision to withhold any information of to deny a waiver of fees. As you know, FOIA provides that even if some requested material is properly except from mandatory disclosure, all segregabvle portions of the same must be released.

In addition, we ask that you exercise your discretion to release information that my be techinically expempt but where withholding would serve no important public interest.

If the requested records are not in the possession of your agency (agencies), we ask that you forward this request to any agency you believe may have the records that are responsive to this request. In the alternative, we ask that you inforrm us of other agencies that may have such records, to the extent of your agency’s knowledge>

If you have any questions regarding this request, please telephone Stacey Dansky of the House Judiciary staff. We will be happy to discuss ways in which this request may be clarified or slightly adjusted to reflect the agnecy’s filing system and to expedite the search, if necessary.

We look forward to your reply to this request within twenty (20) business days, as required under 5 U.S.C> 522(a)(6)(A)(i).

Thank you in advance for your prompt attention and response to this matter.

Sincerely,

(signatories)

John Conyers Jr.

51 other members of Congress

(The bold part is mine. The typos are mine. I typed and filed off of a picture file.)

BLOGGERS: Join 4th of July Guantanamo Action

NOTE: The BLOG ROLL is growing. Look down the left side of the page, below Hulk Hogan and EuroTrib!

Join the bloggers coalition to close down Guantanamo! We can all help the Center for Constitutional Rights (CCR) publicize and support its Fourth of July rally in NYC (10AM-noon; 34th St, between Broadway & 7th Ave) featuring Eve Ensler, Code Pink, Gloria Steinem, Not in Our Name, Center for Constitutional Rights, and United for Peace and Justice.


ACTIONS:


  1. Join the bloggers’ roll to support the campaign. E-mail susanhu to get on the list at BoomanTribune.com. All that’s required if we add your name is that you write a story or diary about CCR’s actions.
  2. Write a story or diary about the coalition’s campaign to end illegal detention and torture. Use the images below the fold.
  3. In your story/diary, URGE OTHER BLOGGERS to sign the blog roll and to write their own stories/diaries.
  4. Encourage your readers to DOWNLOAD STICKERS and DOWNLOAD FLAGS to display on the 4th of July


    : : : MORE IDEAS & STORY INFO BELOW : : :

    MORE PROJECTS:



    THIS IS THE TEXT of the flyer that CCR is posting:

    HONOR AMERICAN VALUES IN YOUR COMMUNITY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY


    JOIN THE MOVEMENT TO END TORTURE
    CLOSE THE GUANTANAMO DETENTION CENTER


    WHY is it important to close Guantánamo?

    Guantánamo has become a world-wide symbol for the Bush Administration’s arrogant disregard of basic human rights. In the past weeks, world leaders including Presidents Carter and Clinton have joined leading human rights groups in calling for the closing of Guantánamo and other illegal prison facilities around the globe. Countless others have joined the call for an immediate independent investigation and/or special prosecutor to be appointed to investigate the numerous allegations of torture and abuse taking place on Guantánamo.


    JOIN ONE OF MANY RALLIES TAKING PLACE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY


    July 4th is just the beginning! Keep the movement going on Tuesday, July 5th!


    Participate in a massive telephone and online campaign to continue the petition to members of Congress.

    Torture is Immoral and Unpatriotic

    Shut Down Guantánamo


    More background information.


    If you have questions, please e-mail susanhu.


    CCR CONTACT: Jen Nessel at jnessel@ccr-ny.org + cell: 917 442 0112


    IMAGES FOR YOUR USE IN VARIOUS SIZES:


    Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


    Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


    Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


    OR DOWNLOAD STICKERS and DOWNLOAD FLAGS.

For the Record GWB 6/28/05 Vs. LBJ 3/31/68

Well, give him credit, the president’s plan to end the War was clearly spelled out:

[We] know that further efforts are going to be required:

  • –to expand their own armed forces,
  • –to move back into the countryside as quickly as possible,
  • to select the very best men that they have for civil and military responsibility,
  • to achieve a new unity within their constitutional government
  • to include in the national effort all those groups who wish to preserve itscontrol over its own destiny.

What?  Hang on jest a sec.. <rubs glasses>….  Sorry that Wasn’t W on Tuesday night at all, nope that was LBJ, March 31, 1968

Not coincidentally, just after the Tet Offensive proved that war wasn’t in its last throes either, despite what his cabinet had been saying publicly.

Spooky isn’t it?  

 But right there the similarity comes to a screeching halt. One was a serious address given by a sober, thougtful President.    

W gave the other one:

Lets compare shall we?
 

LBJ:

Tonight I want to speak to you of peace in Vietnam and Southeast Asia.

No other question so preoccupies our people. No other dream so absorbs the 250 million human beings who live in that part of the world. No other goal motivates American policy in Southeast Asia.

For years, representatives of our Government and others have traveled the world–seeking to find a basis for peace talks.

GWB

The troops here and across the world are fighting a global war on terror. The war reached our shores on September the 11th, 2001. The terrorists who attacked us — and the terrorists we face — murder in the name of a totalitarian ideology that hates freedom, rejects tolerance, and despises all dissent. … This nation will not wait to be attacked again. We will defend our freedom. We will take the fight to the enemy. ..There is only one course of action against them: to defeat them abroad before they attack us at home

LBJ:

But tragically, this is also clear: Many men–on both sides of the struggle–will be lost. A nation that has already suffered 20 years of warfare will suffer once again. Armies on both sides will take new casualties. And the war will go on.

There is no need for this to be so.

There is no need to delay the talks that could bring an end to this long and this bloody war.

Tonight, I have ordered our aircraft and our naval vessels to make no attacks on North Vietnam, …The area in which we are stopping our attacks includes almost 90 percent of North Vietnam’s population, and most of its territory. Thus there will be no attacks around the principal populated areas, or in the food-producing areas of North Vietnam.

Dubya

We’re fighting against men …who are capable of any atrocity. … They take innocent lives to create chaos for the cameras. ….

America {is} a conflict that demands much of us. It demands the courage of our fighting men and women, it demands the steadfastness of our allies, and it demands the perseverance of our citizens.

we fight today because terrorists want to attack our country and kill our citizens, and Iraq is where they are making their stand. So we’ll fight them there, we’ll fight them across the world, and we will stay in the fight until the fight is won.

LBJ:

Our presence there has always rested on this basic belief: The main burden of preserving their freedom must be carried out by them–by the South Vietnamese themselves.

We and our allies can only help to provide a shield behind which the people of South Vietnam can survive and can grow and develop. On their efforts–on their determination and resourcefulness–the outcome will ultimately depend….

On many occasions I have told the American people that we would send to Vietnam those forces that are required to accomplish our mission there. So, with that as our guide, we have previously authorized a force level of approximately 525,000.

Some weeks ago–to help meet the enemy’s new offensive–we sent to Vietnam about 11,000 additional Marine and airborne troops.

In order that these forces may reach maximum combat effectiveness, the Joint Chiefs of Staff have recommended to me that we should prepare to send–during the next 5 months–support troops totaling approximately 13,500 men.

GWB

Some Americans ask me, if completing the mission is so important, why don’t you send more troops? If our commanders on the ground say we need more troops, I will send them. But our commanders tell me they have the number of troops they need to do their job. Sending more Americans would undermine our strategy of encouraging Iraqis to take the lead in this fight. And sending more Americans would suggest that we intend to stay forever, when we are, in fact, working for the day when Iraq can defend itself and we can leave. As we determine the right force level, our troops can know that I will continue to be guided by the advice that matters: the sober judgment of our military leaders.

LBJ:

I have concluded that I should not permit the Presidency to become involved in the partisan divisions that are developing in this political year.

With America’s sons in the fields far away, with America’s future under challenge right here at home, with our hopes and the world’s hopes for peace in the balance every day, I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office–the Presidency of your country.

Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.

But let men everywhere know, however, that a strong, a confident, and a vigilant America stands ready tonight to seek an honorable peace–and stands ready tonight to defend an honored cause–whatever the price, whatever the burden, whatever the sacrifice that duty may require.

GWB:

Conservatives saw the savagery of 9/11 in the attacks and prepared for war; liberals saw the savagery of the 9/11 attacks and wanted to prepare indictments and offer therapy and understanding for our attackers,”  

“Has there ever been a more revealing moment this year?” Mr. Rove asked. “Let me just put this in fairly simple terms: Al Jazeera now broadcasts the words of Senator Durbin to the Mideast, certainly putting our troops in greater danger. No more needs to be said about the motives of liberals.”

Okay technically that was Karl Rove  But really, is there a difference?

Today’s Economic News

The main news today was the FOMC’s announcement on interest rates.  Here are the pertinent parts from the press release:

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Pressures on inflation have stayed elevated, but longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.

The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

The emboldened sentence from the press release was the key phrase for traders, who interpreted the statement as implying interest rate hikes are not ending soon.  As a result, they sold shares after the Fed released the statement.  In other news, Bank of America announced a merger with MBNA for 36 billion.  However, this news was not strong enough to prevent today’s sell-off.
The 10-Year Treasury rose 9/32 to yield 3.92%.  The bond market rallied on the drop in the National Association of Purchasing Managers Index from 54.1 to 53.6.  In addition, the market interpreted the phrase “With underlying inflation expected to be contained” to mean that short-term inflation was under control, increasing bond’s overall after-inflation return.  Finally, traders focused on a possible weak showing in Friday’s ISM manufacturing number.

Oil fell 76 cents to close at $56.50/bbl.  The market continued to sell-off in the wake of yesterday’s announcement of increased oil inventories.  In addition, traders are still taking some profits from Monday’s record high.

The dollar lost .27% versus the euro and gained .4% versus the yen.  The dollar/euro trade was purely technical.  The dollar is overbought versus the euro, indicating traders have made paper profits and are converting some of these profits to cash.  The dollar increased versus the yen largely on the FOMC announcement.  Higher US interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors.

Damn straight, I’m the enemy

Booman nailed it today when he said, and I quote:

George W. Bush does not think that the Taliban are his enemy. He doesn’t think Usama bin-Laden is his enemy. He doesn’t think former Ba’athists are his enemy, or even foreign suicide bombers. No, his enemies are ‘opinion leaders’ here in the United States. That’s you and me.

You know what? He’s absolutely right. And now that I think about it, I am the enemy, and I’m going to stand up and say so.
If they are trying to organize support for an illegal and immoral war that my sons, both in their twenties with families, could still be sucked into, then damn straight, I’m the enemy.

If they are bankrupting the country to line the pockets of people who already have more money than you and I are ever going to see at the expense of education, health care and social security for the citizens of this country, then damn straight I’m the enemy.

If they want to create a populace that sits numbly in front of their television sets with whatever sludge they decide to serve up pouring into their brains, then damn straight I’m the enemy.

If they want to send my job overseas because it’s cheaper for businesses to do so, then damn straight I’m the enemy.

If they want to make my air unbreathable, my water undrinkable and my landscape unliveable, then damn straight I’m the enemy.

If they want to curtail my rights to freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom to worship, freedom from self-incrimination, freedom to own a weapon, freedom to peaceably assemble, freedom from unreasonable search and seizure, freedom from cruel and unusual punishment, freedom to vote, and freedom to think and act for myself, damn straight I’m the enemy.

I love this country, and if they’re going to treat me like a traitor for trying to stand up for it, then damn straight I’m the enemy.

Wading Into the Deep End

Look at our logo! Of course I think Bush should be impeached. I think he should be arrested. I make no secret of that. Let other web sites navigate politically, trying to ‘frame’ the progressive agenda effectively. Fuck that. I am not about that. I’m about frog-marching corrupt politicians, no matter what party they belong to. I’m a proud Democrat, but I won’t tolerate corruption from anyone. And all the kiddies that are afraid to wade into the deep end, take a look at this:

For Immediate Release: June 30, 2005
To Interview Bob Fertik:
http://democrats.com/contact

According to a poll released by Zogby today, 42% of Americans say they would favor impeachment proceedings if President Bush misled the nation about his reasons for going to war with Iraq.

“The results of this Zogby poll are astonishing and reveal the depth of anger among the American people over President Bush’s lies about Iraq, even among 25% of Republicans” said Bob Fertik, president of Democrats.com.

“These results are especially remarkable because few Americans are even aware of the secret Downing Street Memos, which prove that President Bush was determined to invade Iraq long before he consulted Congress or the United Nations in the fall of 2002,” Fertik said. “These official minutes of Prime Minister Blair’s national security council meeting prove ‘the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy’ – that Bush knowingly lied to the world to sell his war plans.”

Democrats.com helped create a grassroots coalition at AfterDowningStreet.org to break through the blackout of the “Downing Street Minutes” by the White House, Congress and the American news media. This coalition worked closely with Rep. John Conyers on his June 16 hearings about the memos, which was attended by 35 House Democrats and broadcast by C-Span.

On July 23, grassroots activists around the country will hold events to mark the third anniversary of the Downing Street Minutes. These events will feature veterans of the Iraq War, families of those killed in Iraq, Members of Congress, and experts on the Iraq War. The theme of these events is to “Mourn the Losses, Learn the Truth, and Investigate the Lies.”

Following the publication of the Downing Street Minutes in May, Democrats.com also renewed its campaign to impeach President Bush and Vice President Cheney. This campaign, at ImpeachCentral.com, has collected 20,000 petition signatures so far. Democrats.com members are lobbying Members of Congress to introduce Articles of Impeachment to begin the impeachment process, which requires a majority vote in the House of Representatives before a trial is held in the Senate. Democrats.com hosts the ImpeachBush Meetup, which has 295 chapters and nearly 6,000 members.

Several Democratic Members have said Bush’s lies might be impeachable offenses, including Rep. Charlie Rangel. The Democratic Parties of Wisconsin and Nevada have officially called for Bush’s impeachment, as well as the Green Party, Veterans for Peace, and numerous Web sites including ImpeachBush.org and Impeach.TV.

Before President Bush spoke to soldiers at Fort Bragg on Tuesday, Democrats.com urged Bush to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq by Thanksgiving, and to resign by New Year’s Day to “let a new team put American on a new road to security and peace.”

According to Fertik, “President Bush gave a prime-time speech with all the trappings of the Presidency to urge Americans to ‘stay the course’ in Iraq. Bush’s speech fell on deaf ears because the American people know that we are in Iraq only because of the deliberate lies told by the President. The War in Iraq has already cost the lives of 1,744 young Americans and added $200 billion to our national debt, but it has only increased global terrorism and made America less secure. Americans want a change, and if President Bush won’t change his policies, then the American people will change their President through impeachment,” Fertik said.

Recent polls show Americans have turned against the war in Iraq. A solid majority believes the war was a mistake, and over 60% of Americans believe Bush has no plan for winning – or leaving. The Zogby poll shows Bush’s speech actually reduced his dismal approval rating by one more point to 43%. This is the lowest approval rating for a President in his fifth year in the history of polling. At this stage in his Presidency, Bill Clinton’s approval ratings were 60%, and they rose to 70% when Republicans tried to impeach him for a personal weakness.

Democrats.com, founded in 2000, is the largest online community of Democratic Party activists with over 300,000 subscribers. Democrats.com recently co-founded AfterDowningStreet.org to end the media blackout of the explosive Downing Street Minutes and to demand a Congressional investigation of grounds for impeachment.

Suggestion Box

Hi folks.

We moved to a new server.  And we also upgraded the ‘recent comments’ feature and made it work faster by eliminating the search for replies to recent comments.

But a few things might not be working right at first.  So, if you notice any problems, post them below.

Update [2005-6-30 16:21:9 by BooMan]: Don’t just give Andy complaints…show him some love too.