Larry Johnson, a former CIA/State Dept. analyst, makes troubling observations at the Counterterrorism Blog about U.S. intelligence issues following the Taliban’s downing of a Chinook helicopter in the mountains of Afghanistan:
- “The ability of the Taliban to communicate with the outside world about activities in a remote area of Afghanistan is equal to if not better than [the U.S.]. War is not simply engagements on the ground, it also involves information flow. The Taliban are showing a very sophisticated capability in this regard.”
- “More troubling is the possibility that the Taliban forces knew in advance that US forces were coming into the area and were in a position to ambush our people. That is a counterintelligence problem pointing to possible penetrations of US operational plans.”
- “[I]t is clear that Islamic extremists along the Northwest Frontier of Pakistan are stepping up their infiltration of Afghanistan … to derail elections there. This is a war the United States cannot fight alone … our erstwhile Pakistani allies are not doing their part to stem the tide of Islamic militants entering Afghanistan and to locate and destroy the remnants of Bin Laden’s forces. …”
It was a tragic loss of exceptional personnel needed in an emergency: “We now know from US sources that the helicopter’s passengers included members of a Quick Reaction Force who were responding to calls for assistance by US troops on the ground who were fighting Islamic militants,” Johnson notes.
Emphases mine.
What Larry J. isn’t telling you is that Pakistan ALLOWS those groups to cross the border… they could seal it off a lot more effectively if they wanted to, as they’ve done it in the past.
The Taliban are allied with certain tribes which generally fall under the wider ethnicity known as Pashtun, who have excellent connections with the military and intelligence services of Pakistan.
Meanwhile the civilian gov’t of Afghanistan, aside from Karzai himself (who is ethnic Pashtun), is primarily composed of Afghanis who speak Dari (or Uzbek or Tajik).
There is a huge power play going on in Afghanistan without anyone in the west seeming to understand it or report on it. The non-Pashtun have long been aligned with India and Pakistan will do anything in its power to keep India from growing in influence.
What I’m writing here is an extreme simplification of the politics in the area, but the point is that the Taliban slash “extremists” are most definitely being allowed to find refuge and support inside Pakistan.
The Pak Army’s incursions into NWFP and Waziristan are to cement Islamabad’s control over these tribes, not their eradication or removal from power.
Pakistan is an artifical state with a variety of competing powers, ethnicities and religious groups. Look at Musharraf’s support for the MMA party and you will see the reason why he’s both a general and the president, he knows who HIS base is. It’s a delicate balancing act, because at the same time he’s embracing these fundamentalist “devils”, he’s also Bush’s hero in the “War on Terror” and gets billions of dollars in cash and weaponry from the USA.
Musharraf is quite shrewdly fighting the proxy war with India not (primarily) in Kashmir anymore but in Afghanistan.
Don’t forget Musharraf’s government LEGALLY RECOGNIZED the Taliban as the “legitimate” gov’t of Afghanistan prior to 9/11…
The simple equation is this – the more the U.S. and NATO have to fight the Taliban/extremists in Afghanistan, the longer the War on Terrorism continues, and the more aid and weaponry Pakistan will get..
Why kill the chicken that lays golden eggs?
Pax
During the most recent Pentagon briefing (which I’m watching on C-SPAN right now), General James Conway doesn’t seem to be too concerned about what’s going on in Afghanistan when asked if this shootdown indicated a resurgence of the Taliban. His answer was bescially “well this is the first helicopter that’s been shot down so…”.
They do expect more violence as the Afghani elections draw near, but I sure got the impression that they don’t see this as a big deal. Right…just like when the Iraqis were supposed to be greeting their liberators with flowers and candy…we believe them…don’t we?
If you think the military is stretched thin now – just wait a few months.
I watched that too, Catnip. And see Tracy’s comment below… wasn’t it odd how Lawrence de Rita and Gen Conway danced around the “missing” troops question?
And, just now, MSNBC’s military expert is saying there will be a “massive increase” in violence in Afghanistan … some groups will be trying to take over Afghanistan. “Nothing like what we see in Iraq.”
How can this administration be in such denial? That’s what gets me…
Further to my previous post about the US military conveniently burying its head in the sand about the growing insurgency in Afghanistan, the NYT reports:
“We were wrong,” a senior Afghan government official acknowledged, saying of the Taliban, “It seems they were spending the time preparing.” He insisted on anonymity because of the delicacy of the subject within the government.
“We were wrong”. There’s something you’ll never hear from Bushco.
War? What war? Oh! Afghanistan. Oh yeah – that war is over, isn’t it?
I just read this on MSNBC
U.S. forces remain unable to locate a small U.S. reconnaissance team that a Special Forces unit was going to support when their helicopter was shot down, killing all 16 troops aboard, the U.S. military said on Friday.
Sounds to me like the Chinook was baited. The Taliban knew the army would come with more troops if this group went missing.
slowly in order to exhaust public interest in this and miss the prime times of the news cycle! Yesterday they wouldn’t even fess up to the missing troops, they even went on the record saying that there were no troops in the area classified as missing.
Tracy, see my note to Catnip up yonder.
They’re being very coy and very quiet about what’s going on. Did you see a news story about the missing troops?
said that 7 additional troops on the ground were missing. Because this thing happened right in the middle of the speech I stayed up past midnight reading news from all over the world and news reports out of China and Thialand had stories about the missing 7. I decided to take break yesterday because I found myself getting way too wound up lately. I used to be a great meditator, but these past four years I have a hard time calming. I couldn’t stop myself though last night from checking in and then I found several copied news reports that no soldiers were “classified” as missing yesterday. I wake up this morning and Bingo….now we have missing troops. A shootdown where everybody was killed and also missing troops on the ground is too much to lay on the public at once. It says basically what your diary says – They are pretty organized in old Afghanistan lately and we just got our ass handed to us! They didn’t want that right after W’s speech. I haven’t checked for sure. Once I started boiling I turned the computer off, but I found one news source that I thought claimed that the shootdown occurred hours before asswipes speech. If so they have been doing spin control on this before that bastard even got up there. I didn’t look at the two speeches either……..I wonder if it could be connected if that Chinook had already been shot down and satellite phone calls already made to the press?
To a good story about it, link. Sad thing is though that basically I read an almost identical story late Wednesday night or in the wee hours of Thursday morning from China and Thailand. What can I say? When you have loved ones in Iraq you learn to not even check the American press if you want the information now and not later.
BBC News:
The US military has reason to hope the soldiers have not been killed or captured, the BBC’s Andrew North says.
The Taleban say they shot down the aircraft, which was carrying troops to help a reconnaissance unit in the area.
All 16 soldiers on board died, in the worst single US combat-related loss since invading Afghanistan in 2001.
QUICK GUIDE
Afghanistan
A man claiming to speak for Taleban militants said an American had been captured in the area where the helicopter was shot down. …
US forces are searching for soldiers who are still missing in Afghanistan three days after a helicopter was shot down on a mission to support them.
The US military has reason to hope the soldiers have not been killed or captured, the BBC’s Andrew North says.
The Taleban say they shot down the aircraft, which was carrying troops to help a reconnaissance unit in the area.
All 16 soldiers on board died, in the worst single US combat-related loss since invading Afghanistan in 2001.
A man claiming to speak for Taleban militants said an American had been captured in the area where the helicopter was shot down.
etc., etc.