crossposted at The Next Hurrah
Avian flu (aka bird flu and H5N1) is in the news again. There are sobering reports that bird flu has now spread to poultry in Russia and more parts of Indonesia, where 3 members of a family are confirmed to have died raising the possibility of human to human (H2H ) transmission. For a good FAQ on this topic if you are new to it, go here or try Flu Wiki. we are not in the midst of a pandemic, but the possiblility exists that we could be some time in the next few years. Even if it does not happen, pre-planning is an absolute must.
On the other hand, the CDC is finally finishing its pandemic preparedness plan. Can you spell rationing?
The plan lays out just who will get the vaccine, in descending order of priority:
- Group 1. The highest-priority group includes 9 million healthcare workers involved in direct patient care; 40,000 people who are making the vaccine and antiflu medicines; and some 37 million people who are at greatest risk if they get the flu, namely those over age 64 with a medical illness, younger people with two serious underlying medical conditions, pregnant women, and all household contacts of children under 6 months of age. Also in this top group are key government officials and specialized pandemic flu responders.
- Group 2. In the next tier are healthy seniors; younger people with one risky health condition; young children between 6 to 23 months old (the vaccine is not recommended for infants under 6 months); and workers in critical fields like public safety, utilities, emergency response, transportation, and telecommunication. This group is 68 million strong.
- Group 3. The third priority is 500,000 people, including key government healthcare decision makers and those working in mortuary services.
- Group 4. At the bottom are the remaining 179 million healthy people, 2 to 64 years old, not included in any other category.
Rationing is going to be part of the mix of how we respond, and will be subject to change as more data becomes available. It almost has to be as there’s not enough antiflu medicine to go around, and a proper vaccine will likely take 6 months or more to show up in any quantity. Quarantine and shutting down certain services such as schools, entertainment, etc might in certain circumstances be necessary as well.
Given that that’s the case, best to discuss it beforehand, early rather than late. There’s enough mistrust of this government without a natural disaster making things even worse then they already are. We need our public health officials out in front explaining things as they go along. We need to get used to who they are and what their role is. And they need to be trained in how to communicate risk to the population honestly and fairly. It’s the only way we’ll ever begin to be prepared.
