2005, 2006, 2008 Electoral & Campaign News, Notes & Analysis for 7/17 to 7/22

I’m going to try and write more of my own analysis in these campaign news compilation diaries. Campaign news (2005, 2006, and 2008), election laws, voting issues, etc. are covered. Items via a variety of sources (i.e. The Note, National Journal, etc.), diaries at DKos, or found by me through Google News.  Unless otherwise noted, opinions in links aren’t mine (nor do I necessarily endorse them). I try to separate my personal comments from the news, but I didn’t always make it as clear as I could. I’m still trying to work that out.

Sections:

  • Democratic Party Branding, Electoral Issues, Party News, Shifts in Voting Pref, etc.
  • 2005 races
  • State/Local/Regional News, Analysis, and Organizing
  • 2006 House of Rep. Races
  • 2006 Senate Races
  • 2006 Gov. & Lt. Gov. Races
  • 2008 Presidential Race

Democratic Party Branding, Electoral Issues, Party News, Shifts in Voting Pref, etc.

2005

OH-2 Less than a month to go!

November
VA

NYC Mayor

  • NYC Mayoral Update, by LarryinNYC
  • WakeupCall: “NARAL Pro-Choice New York endorsed NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s (R) re-election bid yesterday (New York Post).”
  • WakeupCall: “A Quinnipiac poll shows that NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) is above 50% when matched against any Dem contender, including Fernando Ferrer (52%-36%), Virginia Fields (55%-29%), Gifford Miller (55%-30%) and Rep. Anthony Weiner (54%-28%) among NYC regis. voters (release).”
  • NYC Boot Bloomberg

NJ

  • Corzine event with Max Cleland 7/28, by JerseyBornFilly
  • WakeupCall: “A Fairleigh Dickinson poll shows Sen. Jon Corzine (D) leading ’02 SEN nominee Doug Forrester (R) 47%-34% in the ’05 GOV matchup among NJ regis. voters (AP).” (Forrester’s name ID was higher, but the gap didn’t close.)
  • WakeupCall: “A Strategic Vision (R) poll shows Sen. Jon Corzine (D) defeating ’02 SEN nominee Doug Forrester (R) 48%-40% among likely voters in the ’05 NJ GOV matchup (release).”
  • Corzine for Governor

Other

State & Local Races; State/Regional News, Analysis & Organizing

House of Representatives 2006

General, Regional

AZ-05 Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)
* Larry King to run against JD Hayworth in AZ-5

CA-50 Rep. Duke Cunningham (R)

CT-02 Rep. Rob Simmons (R)

CT-04 Rep. Chris Shays (R)

CT-05 Rep. Nancy Johnson (R)

IA-01 Open seat being vacated by Rep. Jim Nussle (R) who is running for Gov.
* IA-01 Open Seat Update, by demiowa

IL-06 Open seat currently held by Henry Hyde.
* Christine Cegelis (IL06)

IL-08 Rep. Melissa Bean (D)
* Rep. Melissa Bean for Congress

MN-01 Rep. Guknecht (R)
* Tim Walz for MN-1

MN-02 Rep. John Kline (R)
* Coleen Rowley (D) for MN-2

NC-11 Rep. Charles Taylor (R)

NJ-07 Rep. Mike Ferguson (R)
* NJ-7 Mike Ferguson

NY-29 Republican-held district

OH-15 Rep. Deborah Pryce (R)

PA-06 Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)

PA-07 Rep. Curt Weldon (R)
* Paul Scoles for Congress (PA-7)

PA-16
* Byron Miller 2006 Congress PA-16

PA-18 Rep. Tim Murphy (R)
* Hafer to challenge Murphy Makes this a good pickup opportunity.

SC-03
* Lee Ballenger (D) website

TX-10

TX-22 Rep. Tom DeLay (R)

VA-11 Rep. Tom Davis (R)
* Andrew Hurst for Congress

WI-05 Rep. Sensenbrenner (R)

WV-02 Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (R)
* Mike Callaghan for WV-2

Senate 2006

Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl (R)
* AZ Dem Party Chief Jim Pederson resigns, by Mister T in AZ Resignation in anticipation of a Senate run.

Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D)

Maryland Open seat currently held by Sen. Sarbanes (D)
* GOP has high hopes for Steele.

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D)
* Keith Butler on Public TV, by fergusonforcongress

Minnesota Retiring Sen. Mark Dayton (D)

Montana Sen. Conrad Burns (R)

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D)
* Siena Poll: Clinton has commanding lead over Pirro (R)

North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad (D)
* Sen. Kent Conrad for US Senate

Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R)

Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R)

Tennessee Open seat currently held by Sen. Cat Killer (R).
* Harold Ford, Jr. for Senate

Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch (R)

Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell (D)
* McGavick (R) prepares for run. He has resigned as Safeco CEO.

Governor 2006

Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D)
* AZ Governor’s Race, by pine Lovely diary.

Arkansas Term-limited Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)
* Lt. Gov. Rockefeller leaves 06 race because of an advanced form of leukemia.

California Arnold (R)

Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell (R)

Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)

Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R)

  • WakeupCall: “Ex-Clinton operative Lanny Davis “has formally endorsed” Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley (D) for MD GOV while “admonishing” Montgomery Co. exec. Doug Duncan (D) “for going negative” (Maryland Gazette).”
  • Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley for Governor

Nevada Term-limited Gov. Kenny Guinn (R)
* State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus (D) announces bid for the governor’s office

New York Gov. George Pataki (R)
* Pataki approvals up, but still lose the 06 race to Spitzer 49% to 37%

Ohio Gov. Bob Taft (R)

Pres 2008

Republicans George Pataki of New York, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas were in Iowa for the meeting, along with Democrats Tom Vilsack of Iowa, the conference’s host, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania and Mark Warner of Virginia, chairman of the governors group.

All seven have at least hinted at an interest in the White House or shown other signs of presidential ambition, like early visits to key states or the creation of national political committees to raise money.

Bayh

  • Bayh Steps Up Staffing Efforts in Iowa
  • He attended a NH Democratic Party event last weekend.  He comes across like a nice guy, but he’s not particularly charismatic or exciting. He’s got a nice smile and seems modest. At this point, he’s probably better at retail politics than made-for-TV politics. You can judge for yourself and reply with your impression: At CSpan It’s the 7/17/05 clip.

Biden
* Biden learned lessons in ’87 race. Really interesting article for those who hate him, love him, or are somewhere in between.  Keep an open mind when you read it.  In my opinion, it seems as though Biden’s appeal is wide-ranging for those who don’t follow politics closely enough but do catch him every once in awhile on TV.  Biden comes across a lot better on TV than Kerry or Gore (if you’re not sick of him just being on TV all the time).  Some in the article disagree with me on Biden’s TV style, but he does have an assertive style of speaking even when he really is parsing words.  Whether that’s suitable for a presidential run is another issue. In any case, the advantage with known national quantites like Biden and Clinton is that they’ve got lots of experience answering questions in interviews and such.  Oh, and I’ve watched Biden on C-Span’s Road to the White House 2008 series.  Biden is a really effective schmoozer.

“The good news,” he said, “is I don’t have to tell [voters] who I am. They know who I am. Of course, that’s also the bad news,” he said with a laugh.

University of Delaware professor and presidential scholar Joseph Pika said Biden’s campaign style is suited for the retail politics of the early presidential primaries. Whether it’s suited for a full-blown presidential campaign is an open question.

[…]

David Wilhelm, who ran Biden’s Iowa campaign and went on to chair the Democratic National Committee, is advising the senator as he ponders 2008. He said he has been kept busy responding to calls and e-mails from old campaign colleagues, wondering: Are we putting the band back together?

“People forget that when he left the race, he was essentially tied for first place,” Wilhelm said. “People inside the Beltway probably don’t have any sense of how well he connects with middle-class voters on issues. He connects very naturally, very well.”

[…]

Political observers say many of Biden’s strengths and weaknesses have not changed in 18 years. Pika noted that Biden is still a senator from a small state, with a long Senate voting record that his political opponents could use for political leverage.

And Pika noted that Biden’s speaking style, which plays well to the crowds, might backfire on television — as Howard Dean learned after the “scream” video on the night of the 2004 Iowa caucus.

Clark
* Clark visits IN; says he hasn’t ruled anything out.

Clinton

Edwards
* He took the poverty issue to OK and Kansas City this past week.

Feingold

Gore
* Gore: New TV channel won’t be partisan He describes himself as a “recovering politician.” I guess this is another indication that he won’t be running in 2008. His former staffers and aides are being hired by other potential 08ers, and some pundits say he won’t run.

Huckabee

Kerry

  • WakeupCall: “Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) will be in NH on 7/29 “to attend a reunion with a small group of supporters” at the home of ex-NH Dem Chair Joe Keefe; Kerry will also attend state Sen. Lou D’Allesandro’s (D) birthday party (Manchester Union Leader).”
  • Kerry raising millions for Democrats across the country
  • McCain in an appearance on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno says he believes Kerry is running again in 08.

Tancredo

Warner
* Warner lays groundwork quietly in Iowa. Warner was in Iowa primarily for the National Governor’s Association, as NGA Chairman, but like other governors who attended the NGA convention, Warner was making political contacts in Iowa just in case he chooses to run for the White House in 2008. This is a pretty interesting article for casual 2008 observers and those watching really closely.

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Links of Interest:

Pease post in the replies of official Democratic candidate websites (esp. those for candidates who will be in tough races come 2005 or 2006) that you know of.  Thanks!

Consider Making a Donation to Democratic Candidates

Donate strategically or based on who you agree with more. Early money is always helpful. Not only does it allow the campaign to get advertising out there earlier, but it also helps the campaign plan expenditures.  Many campaigns end up with money leftover, because so much is donated in the final weeks of the campaign.  They didn’t know they were going to get so much money, and didn’t plan accordingly.  Keep in mind that TV ads are locked in about a week before the day of the election, so ad production ceases around then.  Purchases for ad time tends to happen months or weeks earlier.  Campaigns need flexibility as well.  The best ways for getting the message out to voters are different in different states.  In addition, early money (esp. in House races) helps attract money from DCCC, which has limited resources.  Early money can also send a message to a Republican incumbent.  He/she may not be able to campaign elsewhere if he/she has to deal with a challenge (however minor) at home.
Electoral Politics and Official & Unofficial Democratic Party Campaign Websites and Blogs Look at the categories in the beginning, and go to the section with campaign sites. Sites are listed by state. They are mixed in with blogs focused on the politics in a state or region.

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