From the Washington Post:
“It’s a race against time because by the end of this coming summer we can no longer sustain the presence we have now,” said retired Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey, who visited Iraq most recently in May and briefed Cheney, Rice and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “This thing, the wheels are coming off it.”
From Georgie Anne Geyer
“Iran, if things continue to go its way, finds itself on the threshold of controlling vast oil resources that stretch from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean … Iran is well on its way to achieving de facto control of significant portions of Iraq. Teheran is backing Shia cleric the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani (a Persian, not an Arab) and the radical Muqtada al-Sadr. The Iranians are funneling money and training to supporters inside Iraq. The Iraqi Shia control the political process and comprise the majority of the security forces … Iran is in a dominant position in Lebanon. The murder earlier this year of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has left Lebanon under the de facto military guard of Hezbollah. Iran remains the main benefactor, supporter and adviser to Hezbollah …” [See also my comment at Politics Plus Stuff.]
Then from the New York Times by DEXTER FILKINS we get the following:
In 28 months of war and occupation here, Iraq has always contained two parallel worlds: the world of the Green Zone and the constitution and the rule of law; and the anarchical, unpredictable world outside.
Never have the two worlds seemed so far apart.
From the beginning, the hope here has been that the Iraq outside the Green Zone would grow to resemble the safe and tidy world inside it; that the success of democracy would begin to drain away the anger that pushes the insurgency forward. This may have been what Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was referring to when, in an interview published in Time magazine this month, she said that the insurgency was “losing steam” and that “rather quiet political progress” was transforming the country.
But in this third summer of war, the American project in Iraq has never seemed so wilted and sapped of life. It’s not just the guerrillas, who are churning away at their relentless pace, attacking American forces about 65 times a day. It is most everything else, too.
Baghdad seems a city transported from the Middle Ages: a scattering of high-walled fortresses, each protected by a group of armed men. The area between the forts is a lawless no man’s land, menaced by bandits and brigands. With the daytime temperatures here hovering at around 115 degrees, the electricity in much of the city flows for only about four hours a day.
But everything is not beyond hope. G. W. Bush has become aware there is a problem. Thanks to Mark Kleiman who pointed out what I missed earlier, we learn about this new initiative in the White House to focus on the main priorities in Iraq. From the Washington Post we learn:
“At his meeting with his war cabinet yesterday, Bush reviewed the latest developments but reported no new direction. The administration has set up seven interagency groups focused on its main priorities in Iraq. These are providing security and training Iraqi forces, building national political institutions, restoring energy and other services, tackling economic problems, establishing rule of law, enlisting international help, and improving strategic communications.”
See? It isn’t hopeless! G. W. Bush has become aware that there is some level of difficulty in Iraq, so he has taken action. He has actually set up seven interagency groups which are to focus on the main priorities in Iraq. I guess he just wasn’t given the word anytime in the last two-plus years we have had troops fighting inside Iraq. As soon as he learned there was a problem he took ACTION! He created interagency groups! See? All is not lost!!
Interestingly, I think there’s a neo-con-friendly outcome of this that we’ve never considered before.
As one of your quotes says, Iran stands to gain a lot of territory and wealth by taking over Iraq, and seems to be moving steadily towards that. Also, the war on terror doesn’t seem to have paid off the dividends the neo-cons were hoping for. Remarkably few countries are insane enough to intentionally shelter terrorists. Those that do are usually poor enough that they’ve got no military to speak of. Thus, it’s turned out to be a bit of a bust as far as the eternal war and eternal arms race objectives of the neo-cons are concerned.
Ah, but consider an Iran that stretches across most of the Middle East. Iran’s already pretty well armed, and this would give it a lot of money to buy more weapons. And a lot of population to carry them, and a lot of oil to power them. Oh, and a ready-made reason to hate Truth, Justice, and Mom’s Apple Pie. And a large pool to draw terrorists from… Or for “terrorists” to have backgrounds fabricated in.
If Iran does succeed in annexing large parts of Iraq, I expect propaganda about the threat of the great evil Muslim Empire of Iran to be spewing from the White House within a month.
Gee. Are you suggesting that the conservatives and the NeoCons are building a replacement for the USSR so that we can enjoy the pleasures of a new Cold War with Iran?
I think they tried with China, but the trade got too much. They would have had to fight WalMart, and WalMart is just to big to get into a fight with. Then China started buying all those U.S. bonds and now literally owns the U.S. government. You may be correct. Iran may well do the trick for the conservatives.
Soon we will be hearing about Persian Spies and a Persian under every bed. Then Rick Santorum will stand up in the Senate and wave several sheets of paper and state “I have here a list of over 200 active Persian Spies in the State Department!” Hollywood is going to be attacked as a great nest of “Persian Sympathizers.”
Is that what you are suggesting?
Yeah. I don’t think it was their primary objective, but it definitely seems to be a good outcome for them. But I doubt it’ll be an especially cold war. With the upcoming oil crunch, it’s a great pretext for permanently occupying large parts of the middle east, and a united Iran/Iraq state provides a great excuse for absurd military spending to do so. It might be cold to start with, but I think it’ll heat up fast. And with it, the rhetoric about Islamist sympathizers. Keep the Fundamentalist Fascists happy by suppressing “foreign religions” and all that.
I agree about China. There was a lot of talk about how much of a threat they were in the ’90s, but it’s since evaporated. As you say, the Chinese government didn’t play along. Not only are they slowly easing their iron grip on China itself, they aren’t particularly expansionist WRT anything but Taiwan.