Roy Spencer is a Climate Scientist who has had papers critical of Global Warming published in reputable scientific journals.
OK, fair enough. The evidence for Global Warming has been extremely difficult to achieve, mathematical models of climate continually run into NP-Complete (not computable) and Chaos (everything goes wierd), and the historic baseline of baseline is not only short but incomplete. Climate is Sensitive to Initial Conditions so a slight change of value assignment (quantification) to the variables in a model lead to drastic changes in the behavour of the system. The flow of recursion – which equation is processed when – can also have a dramatic affect.
Skepticism is a valuable tool in science. Skeptics are needed to ensure enthusiasm doesn’t run amok. But the skeptics must also adhere to the proceedures of Science – mere nay-saying is not enough. Skeptics must also adhere to the accepted scientific findings unless solid, solid, evidence is presented.
Dr. Spencer, in a post on his blog has just made the astonishing claim “…intelligent design, as a theory of origins, is no more religious, and no less scientific, than evolutionism.”
Adorn thyself with a tin-foil hat. We’re off to La-la land.
“Curiously, most of the books are written by scientists who lost faith in evolution as adults, after they learned how to apply the analytical tools they were taught in college.”
Notice the word “faith” is invoked early. Scientists do not accept arguments by faith; they accept arguments based on deduction, inference, and evidence. The point here is to ego-flatter some clod who never graduated from the 6th grade that his/her incoherent opinion is intellectually equivalent to the rigourous knowledge of someone who has studied a field all their life.
Also notice the intellectual dishonesty, Dr. Spencer invokes the social prestige of science without actually engaging in scientific methodology. The fact “most books” were written by “scientists” – Who? What are thier fields? What was the evidence? How many books? What was the reaction of their peers? References? – is a cover to gloss his ‘Appeal to Awe’ Logical fallacy.
“True evolution, in the macro-sense, has never been observed, only inferred.”
The counter to this is: So What? I have never “observed” the logical formulation modus ponens only examples of modus ponens. Let me make this real clear:
If it is raining then the ground is wet. It is raining. Therefore, the ground is wet.
If Socrates is a man then he is mortal. Socrates is a man. Therefore, he is mortal.
Are two examples allowing the inference of the True and Valid logical structure, modus ponens:
If X then Y. X. Therefore, Y.
but are not identical to modus ponens. Modus ponens is the Universal pattern; the examples are the Existential particulars.
But there is a very good reason Dr. Spencer has to outlaw inference, see below.
“Possibly the most critical distinction between the two theories (or better, “models”) of origins is this: While similarities between different but “related” species have been attributed by evolutionism to common ancestry, intelligent design explains the similarities based upon common design. An Audi and a Ford each have four wheels, a transmission, an engine, a gas tank, fuel injection systems … but no one would claim that they both naturally evolved from a common ancestor.”
One can only laugh.
First, a Theory and a Model are two different things. A Theory is a verified systematic statement of principles and relationships of phenomena. A Model is representation, mathematical, verbal, or physical, of something.
Second, his example does not hold. Cars, in my limited experience, do not have sex. Therefore the offered evidence is a non sequitar. Which leads to …
Third, we see yet more Material Fallacies. Dr. Spencer is assuming Intelligent Design rather than proving Intelligent Design. Admittedly it is faster and easier to assume what one is trying to prove but it is generally considered, since about 300 BC, to be methodologically flawed. To define Intelligent Design and immediately move on is to Beg the Question. Where is the valid proof? It is not enough to show flaws in some other explanation. One has to show proof your explanation is valid and in the above paragraph it has been shown Dr. Spencer’s offered ‘evidence’ is invalid.
“Common ancestry requires transitional forms of life to have existed through the millions of years of supposed biological evolution. Yet the fossil record, our only source of the history of life on Earth, is almost (if not totally) devoid of transitional forms of life that would connect the supposed evolution of amphibians to reptiles, reptiles to birds, etc. “
Oh, Bullshit. Dr. Spencer, here, is simply lying.
“This is why Stephen Jay Gould, possibly the leading evolutionist of our time, advanced his “punctuated equilibria” theory. In this theory, evolution leading to new kinds of organisms occurs over such brief periods of time that it was not captured in the fossil record. Upon reflection, one cannot help but notice that this is not arguing based upon the evidence — but instead from the lack of evidence.”
Now we are deep in tin-foil hat territory.
That no dinosaurs are found above the K-T Boundary, mammalian species found above the K-T Boundary are not present below the K-T Boundary, and the diversification of mammalian species after the K-T Boundary is not captured in the fossil record? Really? In what Universe?
Dr. Spencer is demanding species that do not exist have to leave a fossil record after they have been snuffed-out in order to prove they no longer exist otherwise it is “lack of evidence.”
This is why Dr. Spencer has to disallow inference. Put in his own field and using his own methodology:
We measure temperature in El Paso and Denver but not in Albuquerque. As inference is not allowed, and we have a gap in the temperature record at Albuquerque, the only valid conclusion possible is: Albuquerque has no temperature.
To-whit, To-whoo.
There is a lot of other stuff to be ridiculed in the blog but – hey! – why should I have all the fun?
I have to go and get some work done but I’ll be back later this afternoon to respond to any comments.
The key word in the Ford/Audi distinction is “naturally.”
But, strangely enough, I would claim that they evolved naturally from a common ancestor.
Given that internal-combustion engine powered cars came to dominate, it is only natural that their progression, though time, should take advantage of certain technological advances and “evolve” from that early car. And it is only natural that there would be differences between them, for they are products of different environments (human dominated, but still environments).
No one sat down and planned out the progression of automotive evolution. Cars “evolved” in response to environmental factors and in response to technological evolution in other fields.
I don’t disagree but let me pick a small nit.
There is a danger of committing Amphiboly (using one word, two meanings, in an argument) when “evolve” is ascripted to cars when discussing the Theory of Evolution. The “evolution” of cars is under the control of a Designer – actually a Design Team – while the “evolution” of species results from non-human processes.
(Having typed that sentence I just realized if the ID people want to use cars as one of their examples then they have to postulate a group of gods/goddesses as the Intelligent Designers. Are we talking Thor/Odin/Freja – the Volvo Design Group? The up and coming Hindu Team of Brama/Vishnu/Shiva? Or the Greek team of Zeus/Athena/Dionysus releasing their classic models?)
I think it’s a pretty good example, because it shows – quite clearly – that evolution doesn’t rule out a designer… It “merely” says that we have no evidence of one. Evolution doesn’t say that there can’t be a designer, merely that one is not necessary.
Car designs very definitely do evolve. You can model their development as an evolutionary system, with appropriately defined breeding, selection, and mutation operators.
It’s as much tactical as anything else. I refuse to give an inch to these jerks.
YMMV.
(Thank you for the recommend, BTW)
I think bringing things back to genetic algorithms and models is a good way to beat them to death, though. Because they demonstrate that so many of the arguments used against evolution are simply false. Sure, the “environments” most genetic algorithms model are very simple, but you can add complexity in a lot of ways without breaking the basic model. (Which is good, as computer scientists love complexity. It lets us write papers. Lots of papers.)
Genetic algorithms and genetic programming produce some really cool results. Even some of the very basic genetic programming systems we’ve got now can produce algorithms to solve problems that no human would have devised. Not very useful in practice, but still cool.
I disagree (in an odd sort of way) that the evolution of a car is under the control of a design team. There was no team envisioning cars as they are now when they were first developed. There is individual design of models, but the general trend is much more “natural selection.” The design team is much more reactive than proactive.
In other words, I don’t see the design team as “intelligent design” but as the tool of “natural selection.” The design team is responsive not, in this sense, creative.
I’ve never built cars but I have built computers and I sort of agree that the design process being “under the control of the designers” is more often a delusion than a reality. I would even go farther and say once more than 3 departments are involved you can kiss-off “intelligent design” as well.
(Laughing)
I agree “natural selection” is operative in product market acceptance and the design process. It may very well be that bio-forms and cars “evolve” under similar rules. (Here I’m thinking of the emergent flocking behavior of ‘boids’ that turned-out to also be applicable to herding.) The Santa Fe Institute has published a book using Complexity Theory as a basis for describing/investigating economic activity but it has been too long since I read it to be able to discuss it in any detail.
Bruce Arthur(?) was the guy leading that particular effort – IIRC.
This stuff is so insidious. I have a friend who is very, very left (almost in anarchist territory)… anti corporatism, thinks there is little difference between Republicans and Democrats and all of that stuff, and…
…believes in Creationism, doesn’t see where ID is any less of a science (or “theory”) than evolution is, and doesn’t think there is a scientific basis for global warming.
I’m really glad that on blogs various people like you, Darksyde and others, are putting things out in layman’s language because when you have even recognized scientists like this one saying silly things like “ntelligent design, as a theory of origins, is no more religious, and no less scientific, than evolutionism.”, one has a much bigger problem on their hands. And is in need of even more accessible information to counter it.
Thanks for posting this.
You’re Welcome.
I had much fun writing it so I’m glad you enjoyed it, too.
[friend who] _ …believes in Creationism, doesn’t see where ID is any less of a science (or “theory”) than evolution is, and doesn’t think there is a scientific basis for global warming.
Amazing, isn’t it?
I could get _real
snarky here but … let it pass, let it pass.
let it pass, let it pass
That’s pretty much what I did. I figured it had nothing to do with fact (there had already been discussion about scientfic theory vs opinion theory), and more to do with a personal religious thing or something… so I just changed the subject. Wasn’t quite sure what else to do, as it was a friend and not a political opponent.
I just chalked it up to a much needed lesson on how to talk to “Red State” religious voters. Or something, ;). I am still not sure why some religious embrace science, while others flee in horror from it. And not even just the religious, as it doesn’t seem as if Spencer is coming to his point of view through religious beliefs?
Anyway, interesting topic.
Roy Spencer can kiss my biologist/chemist ass.
We have a maxim in science: never trust the roving degree. That is, why would you trust a biologist to interpret the data of a particle physicist. In fact, you can’t.
and Spencer, in all of his ill-advised, painfully-misinformed wing-nuttery, can shove his opinions up his butt, because that’s the only place they really belong.
I agree but the problem is people take this bullcrap seriously.
Not true. NP Complete problems are computable, but are not computable in polynomial time. In other words, as the question being asked grows more complicated, it takes much, much longer to get an answer. The “much, much longer” is usually exponential – as in, if you have N items, it takes 2^N computational steps (times some constant) to acquire a result.
I was using the term in its “popular” (i.e., sloppy) meaning of ‘computation does not halt within the lifetime of this universe.’ Admittedly this is not the technical definition but I have seen it used that way in published papers.
No, there’s another class of problems that fall into that category, though I can’t remember what they are. NP-Complete ones just get very difficult very quickly, but have a lot of other cool properties. For example, they’re all completely equivalent. If you can solve one in polynomial time, you can transform any other NP-complete problem into it in polynomial time.
Amusingly, genetic algorithms are a really good way of finding approximate solutions to many NP-complete problems.
I’m working on a system that will use GA techniques to grow Artifical Lifeforms as the processing Agents, eventually. I wanted to use Artifical Life and GA from the get-go but found, as I was stuck using von Neumann architecture, computational load became an issue. Further, over time it dawned I was spending my time doing GA/AL R&D rather than ‘getting on with it.’
Amusingly, genetic algorithms are a really good way of finding approximate solutions to many NP-complete problems.
If one thinks about it this makes a great deal of sense. Although Complexity Theory hasn’t yet been reduced to a ‘mechanics’ any non-trivial problem lying in a Class IV Fitness Landscape is, I would submit, better approached through GA/AL techniques rather than attempting to force the problem back to a Class II FL. For one thing Class III behaviour can be handled – at best, recognized at worst – on Class IV; whereas activity on Class II, landing on a Strange Attractor, usually, unless you get lucky, just collapses when Chaos rears its head.
This is fascinating and exciting stuff.