Cross-posted at CA-48: Turning Orange County Blue
The Big Dog has long believed that Democrats would be well served to field only one candidate in the CA-48 special election. (Of course, the Big Dog also has a dog in this race and a bone to pick, while I have neither).
After much thought, I’ve come to agree.
Philosophically, I’m opposed to efforts by Democratic power-brokers to clear the field for a chosen establishment candidate. But practically — and in the case of CA-48 only — I believe it makes sense for them (or bloggers or Democratic activists) to rally behind a single candidate before Monday’s deadline. At present, three Democrats are expected to run.
I believe Democrats’ best bet is to win the primary.
Come either a Campbell-Gilchrist-Young/Graham/Foster or Brewer-Gilchrist-Young/Graham/Foster general election, the Republican frontrunner will find it in their best interest to attack the Democratic nominee. But in a lone-Democrat primary, both Campbell and Brewer would be ill-served to acknowledge — much less critique — the Democrat. Were Campbell to attack the lone Democrat, he would drive votes to Brewer.
Were Brewer to attack the lone Democrat and compete for moderate Democratic votes, she’d undermine her ongoing effort to position herself as conservative enough for the district and spend limited resources on efforts likely to bring less bang for her buck than would attacks on Campbell. Better to articulate her support for choice and stem cell research and let the moderates fall where they may. Gilchrist might choose to criticize the lone Democrat, but he has few votes to gain from doing so by name and will probably stick to a broader critique of the Democratic Party’s response to illegal immigration.
Further, the benefits to fielding a single candidate are significant. Staff could begin work immediately, local and national fundraising could be channeled to a single campaign, and a district-friendly message could be developed and repeated through election day. Helped by a national media itching to write more special election copy following Paul Hackett’s near-win in OH-2, a single Democrat could enable, in the words of conservative OC Blogger Kahuna, “one of the great Republican Party screw-ups of our time.”
