The Washington Post is reporting that the constitutional negotiations in Iraq have finally failed. No surprise.
If the constitution passes the referendum, a new, full-term assembly would be elected by Dec. 15. But if voters reject it, the December election would be for an assembly that would serve just one year and would try again to frame an acceptable constitution — a process that, with Iraq’s already inflamed sectarian and ethnic tensions, would put great stress on the country’s fragile government-building effort.
I believe this signals a turning point almost as significant as Tet. The difference is that the American public’s reaction to Tet was overblown and this will be underblown. Tet shocked America because we had been led to believe the opposition had no ability to launch such a coordinated attack. But Tet actually was a tactical blunder by the NVA. In this case, America will not understand the significance of the breakdown of negotiations until months later. Initial reaction will not be shock. But the prospects for a decent outcome in Iraq just died their official death. Someday the historians will mark August 28th, 2005 as the the day that broke the camel’s back.
Essentially, this result means that the constitution will almost certainly be rejected. The insurgency will begin to grow in strength. We will hold off giving heavy equipment to the new Iraqi army out of fear it will be turned against us, and lack of domestic support combined with manpower problems for the military will force Congress’s hands.
In Vietnam years, we are approaching 1972.
Gaaaahhhhh!
It doesn’t feel nearly as developed or far along as 1972. We haven’t got to the part of changing puppet governments like underwear.
I don’t get the Tet analogy quite. Tet may have been a tactical blunder, but it was a long term strategic success. The American public on average never thought the war was winnable after Tet. The failed constitution negotiations feels more like the end of the Diem years. It’s 1964-5, the real hellish years in Iraq are yet to come. Soon it will be fire base war, the insurgents have succeeded in driving the US into “secure” compounds. Meanwhile the insurgents continue to organize, it’s only stage 1 guerilla warfare still. When the guerillas stage small set piece battles it will be Stage 2.
Great post Rolfy. I was thinking the exact thing, that this is the beginning of the super escalation phase. Of course I’m hoping you and I are wrong.
comparing it to Diem’s assassination. But the reason I am comparing it io 1972 is that we have reached the same point in terms of domestic support and the army being broken. I also think we are on the verge of seeing a suprising and unpredicted assault on the Green Zone.
I also thing the fall of Baghdad to really bad guys could be about 3 years away.
PLEASE!!! Just rubber stamp the USA victory already, so the GOP can declare victory and bring just a few troops home while still keeping a major force there to guard “OUR OIL”…
Come on Booman, don’t admit any defeat just because we lost any chance of declaring victory the after we got Saddam and didn’t start to withdraw from guarding “OUR OIL”!
How can you say you are waving a real American flag when it doesn’t have “I love bush!” printed on it and it isn’t firmly planted in “OUR OIL”?
YOU! You free-thinker, you! You’ll get them all killed! How can you think at a time like this?
(Sorry, it’s the beer talking… Though, I still can’t seem to get drunk enough to think that bush is doing the right thing?)
side stepping this failed “constitution” and concentrating on how to legitimze it by stealing the election in October… this enters into their field of expertise…
I would be surprised if the constitution didn’t pass the referendum. I will not outright say direct US interference but I am confident they have a plan to ensure that freedom continues to march (by force if necessary)
It has always seemed unhappily likely to me that the outcome in Iraq would be an Islamic theocracy. Now it appears more likely than ever. Less goodies for women, and if you are gay, you’d better run for your life to Canada or someplace else that isn’t overrun by some species of religious fundamentalists. I’ll include the USA as a destination if you are in a fighting mood, since more Americans have become more hostile to gay people as our own brand of fundamentalism gains “dominion” over as much as it can.
After all, why should they depend on 10,000 years of experience in agriculture when Monsanto can sell them a brand new modern way to feed themselves?
Why should they share any power with women when they’ve been docile and happy for 10,000 years?
Why should george have to wait for other people to give him what he wants? If killing them doesn’t work, there’s always a way around them.
To the extent authors and writers invoke Vietnam they diminish the force of their argument(s). Our history is filled with examples of our failure to understand an enemy, including the entire Korean war. If you want to make your point – make it. But leave the backstretch to French Indochina out of it. In Vietnam years we are approaching 1956.
You don’t need Vietnam to make your point:
In anybody’s years it’s 2005.
either. I believe that they want to use the fact that Iraqis fight and kill each other as a reason to establish their permanent bases there. They really don’t want this government to succeed but they pay it all lip service to appear as if they are “doing the right thing”.
I simply for the life of me can not understand thsi administration and their talking heads/mouths taking reference to VN! Yes we have history onboard as a guide, but we are talking about Arabs here and not Vietnamese. We have a certain set of veriables present that is present that make things much worse. I think as time will tell, we will soon be seeing the change in mindset from the military once their pants are on fire so to speak with the information coming out with tatics and methonds involved. All I can say is God be with them, for the wrath of ur God should be with us duing this time. It will not be a pretty sight and when it happens, we will backtrack and say we should have…when it was toooooo late, of course. Remember all those body bags in Crete? they are there for a reason and this will be the reason. I hope I am wrong, really I do, but I seriously doubt it.
…and this is like someone said, 2005 instead of…… I can see the wmds of America becoming involved here at said point, knowing the type of ppl we have involved here….Think out of the box, if you will.