It looks extremely dire for the city of New Orleans, with the Mayor now expecting the levees to be breached, and authorizing police and firefighters to commandeer cars and roust people from their homes.
“We are facing a storm that most of us have long feared,” Mayor Ray Nagin said in ordering the mandatory evacuation for his city of 485,000 people, surrounded by suburbs of a million more. “The storm surge will most likely topple our levee system.”
Conceding that as many as 100,000 inner-city residents didn’t have the means to leave and an untold number of tourists were stranded by the closing of the airport, the city arranged buses to take people to 10 last-resort shelters, including the Superdome.
Nagin also dispatched police and firefighters to rouse people out with sirens and bullhorns, and even gave them the authority to commandeer vehicles to aid in the evacuation.
“This is very serious, of the highest nature,” the mayor said. “This is a once-in-a-lifetime event.”
The National Weather Service paints a picture of armageddon.
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
It looks like it is time to put partisanship and politics aside. Dealing with this calamity is going to require a unified approach from all Americans. If you live in New Orleans, or in the path of this Hurricane, please don’t try to ride it out. This is not your ordinary hurricane.
The rest of us need to be prepared to offer whatever assistance we can.
I usually don’t follow hurricane stories every hour, on the hour–outside of taking sensible precautions if it’s headed my way or keeping check on relatives who may be affected–but this one has me scared to death for the people in the Gulf Coast…New Orleans, specifically.
My God…this was a tropical storm as it approached Florida and I think a Category 3 as it left…now it’s a Category 5?
Damn. I just hope everyone takes precautions. Don’t be a fool and think you can just ride this thing out.
I know what you mean — I keep going back and forth between the weather channel and CNN — I hven’t watched this much CNN since Gulf War I….but i have to have something on when the weather channel is doing local weather or has a commercial.
Where ever it ends up hitting and even if weakens to a strong CAT4, the aftermath will be hideous.
and a weak CAT5
Posted in your other diary: the Red Cross is already there. Check with them as this disaster unfolds – they’re the front line.
http://www.redcross.org/
I’d put FEMA next: http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm They recommend contacting the Red Cross as well.
State of Louisiana Disaster Index. Multiple agency links, information.
Invisible ones: the quite massive influx of insurance adjusters attempting to quantify the damage – includes FEMA + SBA. This is one good reason to keep your valued papers in a metal box, and take it with you.
Pray the storm weakens.
100,000 people to take shelter in the SuperDome — I hope like hell that they are safe there — I feel so, so helpless. At least I know they will be somewhat better off than if they were alone out on the streets or in their homes, but 100,000 people in an enclosed space during a CAT5??? So many bad things can happen….
Where exactly is the Superdome? Is it on higher land, and is it a sturdy structure? My experience of stadiums is such that I wouldn’t want to take shelter in one unless I had NO other choice.
Has it been used before in emergencies?
I don’t have hard facts, I have read that it is a bit higher than other places in NO, but that only means it’s about 10 feet above sea level — doesn’t help much!
Alos, I”ve read that it is built to withstand up to 200 mile per hour winds, but I have no idea if that is accurate. I am just thinking of 100,000 panicky people in an enclosed space….
Don’t know if it has been used for this before or not.
The SuperDome holds 100,000 people, but from what I’ve seen on CNN, there are only 10,000 inside, and another ~2000 waiting to get in.
Not that, if the worst scenario comes to pass, the loss of 12,000 is ‘good’ compared to 100,000, but if the lower levels were to flood, at least there is enough space for those in there to move up.
This whole thing has me sick.
The CNN guy at the Superdome said there’s no real science to prove that the Superdome can withstand a storm like this.
Electricity a problem.
Could be “very, very hot in there” after the storm. Oh gawd.
Yeah, earlier they said that a study to see if it would hold up under this kind of force “had not yet been finished”, so they really don’t know.
There aren’t any guarantees that anything is going to stand up to this, so maybe it’s best to have everyone that can’t go elsewhere in one place for logistical measures, anyway.
I told you to take it easy and recover before strapping into your reporter chair! Nevermind. I know how absolutely boring hospitals can be. I’m so glad you feel well enough to join in.
Ha! It’s really impossible not to be on the ‘net. After the ER, they put me in the Telemetry Unit and I couldn’t remember what Telemetry means … if I’d been online, no problemo! Then it was bad when Darcy’s computer couldn’t pick up a WiFi connection, even outside.
One good thing last night…. CNN is on, the nurses are poking me,and all of a sudden I look up at the TV and shout “LARRY!” (They were replaying “Dead Wrong” and Larry was on, making me laugh out loud — “Uh maybe Curveball should have had a more obvious name like SCREWBALL!” — god, that’s a great presentation.)
The mayor announced that “they won’t be putting out a banquet table or opening up the soda machines,” so those people heading to the Superdome will have no more food and water available than what they carry in.
I hope that’s hyperbole, and that they’re quietly bringing in a week’s supply of both. But God, if that’s the truth…
I don’t know if they have emergency lighting, or how the ventilation is, but if the power goes out with all those people in there, and no way to get fresh air . . .
This could be very, very bad. I hope everyone lives through it.
that they were making from the outside superdome, it looks like the main doors are at least some 20-25 feet above the street. It would seem that at worst the doors could be opened after the worst of the surge has passed.
I hope they have some backup power and ventilation, so they can have some light and air.
Although the air in a flooded city isn’t going to smell any too good . . . but then that’ll be the case if the field is flooded.
This is all I’ve come up with so far.
Here is where the Superdome is at in the city (Lake Pontchartrain is up there on the North, MS River on the south):
Here is a picture of the outside, I believe that is a bank of doors leading out to the top level of a parking structure. But I have never been there, so hopefully somebody more familiar with it will correct me if I’m wrong.
Exactty– and if the whole city floods- what good does it do? cripes – its starting to look like Mad Max
of the Dome to flood. I don’t know if the roof can hold. It’s a potential deathtrap. Panic is probably the biggest threat. I am very worried about the people in the Dome.
Everest Coatings:
“SPF roofing systems have exceptional wind uplift resistance. Field observations of SPF performance during hurricanes Allen, Hugo, and Andrew led the industry to conduct laboratory testing of SPF systems at Underwriters Laboratories and FM Global. Imagine UL’s surprise when SPF’s wind uplift resistance actually exceeded the capacity of their equipment.
= = = = = =
One of the most famous examples is the New Orleans Superdome. A severe hailstorm damaged areas of the SPF roof in 1978, and the city debated for the next 10 years on how best to execute repairs. Finally, in 1992, the roof was repaired and re-coated. Despite such a long time before repairs were finally carried out, the roof never leaked from the hail damage. (In truth, some leaks were reported, but those were caused by bullets fired at the roof during Mardi Gras.)“
SPF = spray foam roofing.
Ground level flooding may be due to openings @ the base of the structure.
but I wish it was a true dome. The way it is shaped it is going to have a lot of wind stress.
Building inspector/engineer told me the trick is to “present” no flat surface to the wind. But who knows? Too many variables. Given a choice though I’d stay in the dome rather than some of those high-rise hotels I saw.
gonna be a very long night in the South.
It is hard for me to remember how far inland it is..my best memory is about 5 miles inland. It is a humongous place. It sits off the major highway that comes in to NO, cant remember its name..I went by Charity hospital on the way in. I worked at Childrens hospital while I was there. which is closer to the coastline. I can not bare to think of the dmage to all the history there! I am so glad ppl are taking shelter and leaving in preparing for this mess.
The history … CNN showed that cathedral there .. and there’s so much more … Darcy worried about all the great jazz clubs …
B — why so many people there? Is it because there are that many people who haven’t the means to get out of town?
P.S. Darcy had an idea today … in the event of a pending disaster, she thinks FEMA should give every family $500 so at least they can buy gas or food … it’s almost the end of the month and probably a lot of people are tapped out.
commented on below — I think CNN had their figures screwed up, there are estimating 100,000 people who will not leave NO for whatever reason — the numbers that e quoted are what CNN just siad about the folks at the Dome.
Some of the people had been waiting in line for 5 hours because they are checking through everyone’s belongings and taking away things like firearms and alcohol….the first is a good idea, I suppose, but the second, dunno — riding out a CAT5 without a drink seems a bit cruel to me.
Also, they’ve had to leave all pets at home for obvious reasons, but still very sad. Who knows how long it will take them to look through everyone’s stuff and get them all organized in there….I just hope they stay safe.
100,000 people to take shelter in the SuperDome — I hope like hell that they are safe there —
This is my question. How much of this storm is going to hit the Big Easy directly? Because the whole city is at or below sea level. Winds like that create HUGE, waves and with surges like that predicted I cannot imagine that a direct hit will leave much left of New Orleans. I’ve been 80mph sustained winds in the middle of the Gulf of Ak and really am lucky to be alive. I cannot imagine what winds twice that strong would do to a coast line much less a major metropolitan area. This sounds like scenes from one of those disaster movies so I would appreciate it if someone would tell me I’m overreacting.
Thanks.
with a potential surge of 18 to 28 feet
28 feet for the surge???
fuck. We should be getting all of those people out of there right now if there’s even a chance of a direct hit.
…, wish I could say differently. From the look of it (and I don’t know what is meant by “direct hit”), the eye is going to pass within 20-30 miles of the city and considering that the eye last time I checked was 22NM in diameter — I think NO is well and truely screwed either way.
Yes, I wish we could get some Air Guard over there with transport planes and get them the hell out of there, I would feel a hell of a lot better.
you know Brinn, I was just thinking that this morning. I wonder why they didnt do that very thing.
Mass air evacuation requires a 72 hour lead time before the first planes hit the runway.
To plan, establish, acquire, and then put in place the logistics, support personnel, operations personnel, and management for the air and ground ops while not causing a melt-down of world-wide air transportation.
As far as the evacuees … Look at it this way, you’re evacuating a town of 10,000 people including the hospital, day care, nursing homes, jails, and yadda-yadda-yadda.
It’s not just a matter of flying a bunch of planes to an airport. Unless …. You savvy Charlie Fox?
why couldn’t that kind of thing be a part of disaster readiness preparation? Why wouldn’t they have that kind of thing planned in advance, so that the first three steps (plan, establish, acquire) would already be in place and then all they would have to do would be to put in place all of the personell, managment,etc.?
I’m not ragging on you here, but this just pisses me off. What the hell are we paying the DHS all those millions of dollars for? What in the fucking hell have they been doing for the past 3 1/2 years?!
Thanks for the info., in any case!
to which my stock answer is that they are busy making it look like they are making us safer instead of actually making us safer. That usually refers to terrorist activity, but I’m sure there’s some of that involved when we’re talking about disaster preparedness as well.
Omir got it mostly right but there is one thing to add.
Some, not all, of the people (Fed, State, Local, private) involved in disaster planning would rather play fuckity-fuck mydick/boobsis/arebiggerthanyours than do their damn jobs. Unfortunately, there is enough of them to bring the process to a standstill.
(In my experience being a disaster planning jerk is an EEOC position.)
DId anyone hear the Director of Homeland Security for Louisiana? He did NOT know what was going on. He said he thinks that the Red Cross wiill probably have help.
WTF?
Some small good news… the Weather Channel has reported that the eye pressure has risen to 903mb. (However, that’s still a stronger storm than Camille)
Wouldn’t it be great if it just suddenly weakened…
but I’m not sure if it will. WWL shows that the water temperature increases as you get closer to shore from where the eye is now, and I don’t know how the interaction between water depth and water temperature and the other factors is going to work with regard to strengthening or weakening the hurricane.
Good grief- I lived in Galveston- the whole island is still resonating with the hurricane in 1900.This may be magnitudes worse.
I agree–and I also disagree. I agree that, clearly, it’s time to put aside rancor and pull together as human beings. On the other hand, natural calamities are always political events, as well. I think it is very important to keep stressing that this crisis may very well be exacerbated by Bush administration cuts to emergency preparedness programs, by the drain of national guard reserves to the war in Iraq, and, of course, by the underlying issue of global warming.
Towards the end of the article: “
Storm surges of up to 28 feet topped by waves up to 30 feet were possible in some areas, hurricane center meteorologist Chris Sisko said.” YIKES that is 58 feet.
Link: http://9news.com/acm_news.aspx?OSGNAME=KUSA&IKOBJECTID=f98b2328-0abe-421a-00e7-705e1c6a2079&
TEMPLATEID=0c76dce6-ac1f-02d8-0047-c589c01ca7bf
Agreed time to put pastinship aside.
The tragedy of what might happen to one of the most magnificent cities in the world is beyond words. HOWEVER- I do have one question and if anybody feels that I am in any way being partisan, they can go eff themselves!
QUESTION — HOW MANY OF THE RESERVE AND OR NATIONAL GUARD TROOPS THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE ASSISTING IN THIS EMERGENCY ARE OTHERWISE NOT AVAILABLE?
billjpa@aol.com
I don’t think it’s partisan at all. This question was first brought up by the folks in Montana at the start of forest fire season.
will use the aftermath of this storm for a fly-over photo-op.
Yes, and another question: why is it harder to get out of the city and save yourself if you are poor? If the Superdome does turn deadly, you can be sure it will be mostly poor people who die.
No car, no momey for gas even if you have a car….that kind of thing.
yes, rhetorical question…wishing we had better public transportations sytems…
I heard on the live new Orleans news feed that Omir sent us that the people in the Dome must bring their OWN food and water and supplies. There will be NOTHING provided for them.
The Superdome is basically just intended to be a sheltered place for you to stay alive until Tuesday. It would be nice if they at least had Portapotties, fresh water and MREs, but I gather that’s not the case.
The National Guard is apparently bringing in bottled water and MREs. No word on the PortaPotties, though; I doubt they’ll be able to flush the toilets when the excitement starts.
I’m so glad they’re providing water and MREs! It just seems cruel to say that there’ll be no “buffet table” waiting. Honestly, if you had the means, wouldn’t you be happy to bring your own food?
And if you had the means, would you choose to stay at the Superdome?
Hell, it’d be fun to bring a buffet of food to share!
Not everyone has a car. There are apparently people showing up at the Superdome with their bikes, pleading for the officials to let them bring them in with them b/c it’s their only mode of transportation.
conversation is that the National Guard for the area is basically gutted and mostly in Iraq. That is why FEMA was called in and the place declared yesterday. There wasn’t anybody to assist in carrying out the emergency procedures. There are a few National Guard but not many.
Good heavens. What have we come to that we even need to say that partisanship should be set aside in the face of a calamity like this.
For now, New Orleans has my prayers. I’ll also do what I can to help through the Red Cross.
WTF? Rally round the Preznit in our time of national emergency? Really?
<snark>This could be proof that G.W. is the anti-Christ, able to summon a monstrous storm to boost his sagging poll numbers. Jeez.<end/snark>
Boo, are you really suggesting that none of us mention Bushco’s pathological denials about global climate change? That we restrain ourselves from pointing out how they have cut disaster preparedness programs? Do we just STFU about the LA National Guard not being where they should be?
Of course, I think all Americans should do what they can to help the victims of this storm even if most of them are Republicans. We’re humanitarians and can do no less.
But, the Idiot-in-Chief and his Legions from Hell should get no free rides because of this potential disaster, IMHO.
I would never hesitate to help anyone in the face of catastrophic disaster , whether victim or first responder– asking their party affiliation would not ever cross my mind.
That being said, BUshCo and their various cronies get NO SLACK, none.
Interesting poll at cnn
Do you believe global warming is a factor behind the recent severe weather?
At the time of my vote 58 % agreed, 12% not sure
It’s not nice to mess with mother nature.
HELLO EVERYONE — and LOVE AND HUGS!
All of your messages meant the world to me. Darcy printed them out and brought them to me.
I’m okay so far … two more out-patient tests – echo stress (cuz I can’t do the treadmill stress because of my athritis) and upper GI in case it’s my esophogaus … which the marvelous internet I got from my regular clinic thinks it might be because I’ve had a lot of heartburn, etc.
FIFTY HOURS without
salt
caffeine (!)
any fat
butter (must have butter)
ICE CREAM!
cigarettes … cept for the 7 I smoked yesterday and this morning. First 27 hours without any cigarettes. They gave me a patch but that’s lame … had Darcy bring me my Nicorette gum from home.
The care was quite wonderful in such a small county hospital. The internet was dogged and dedicated. The nurses said they go to him when they have major problems.
THANK YOU ALL AGAIN! LOVE YOU ALL!
IS TRACY okay in Alabama?
Hope your prognosis is good news too.
best of health to you.
Here’s hoping all the tests turn out ok! Yikes! No cigarettes?!? I stand in awe of you!
I called Tracy this morning — they are ok, the biggest danger for them will be tornados, so they’re watching carefully and battoning down the hatches for wind and rain that they’re bound to get….
Good to see you, lady!
Thank goodness you called Tracy. I’m sure she’ll have a big mess, at the least.
My aunt and uncle went through that in northeastern Florida last year .. their son lives nearby, and they traded off the generator every day until they got electricity back. They’re going to buy another this year!
I wasn’t a good patient. I kept telling anyone who’d listen that I wanted to go home. A nurse snapped at me at one point, ‘Yes, you’ve told me you want to go home twice in the last hour.”
But I calmed down a bit after that first cigarette after 27 hours. And I did sneak a Diet Coke out of the machine + a Butterfinger.
Bad, bad to the bone. That’s me….
SO GOOD to be with you all again.
And I’m dying to hear more about Crawford! The news coverage was extensive on CNN and on CBS Sunday Morning today.
Susan, if you need someone to vent to about quitting smoking, feel free to email me. I’m over 2 weeks smoke free now.
I also recommend http://www.quitnet.com . It’s a smoking cessation web site/community. The UI needs to be updated, but it works in a pinch.
Here you are recovering and inquiring about me. What a doll! Things in my part of the woods are okay. School is still in sessions. Sky very overcast and the clouds are rolling by fast. Not used to that here, in Colorado the thunderheads roll by but the sky seems kind of lazy since moving here, not today though. It’s breezy and it looks like rain off and on all day, but nothing major.
Freudian slip … the INERNIST was dogged … not the Internet.
Darcy brought her laptop but we couldn’t pick up a wireless connection. And neither of us has a dial-up account so we couldn’t use the phone line.
Got lots of reading and TV watching done.
Yay!! (I think it’s really cute that you typed internet instead of internist.)
internists I mean. He researched all my EKG’s from years back, like a CSI investigator. I think he tried to hypnotize me in his office he was so charismatic. But I won the argument by getting my cholesterol levels down with diet and exercise and NO drugs.
Best of health to you Susan.
Glad you are back! How are you feeling? What did the drs say?
I was just going to inquite about the internet who was treating you. How’s it going susan, I hope you are doing good and now don’t overdue yourself.
Bayou Farewell: The Rich Life & Tragic Death of Louisiana’s Cajun Coast
from June 14, 2003
From the Sangha Café and Fair Trade Marketplace in Washington, DC, author and journalist Mike Tidwell discusses his latest book, “Bayou Farewell.” The book details the erosion of the marshland of coastal Louisiana into the Gulf of Mexico and the environmental impact on the local industry and wildlife. According to Mr. Tidwell, the six thousand square mile bayou region loses one acre of ground every 20 minutes. Considered the fastest disappearing landmass on earth, Mr. Tidwell cites as evidence the large numbers of oak trees dying from salty groundwater and entire cemeteries being overtaken by swamps. The book also describes the food, music and culture of the region, and the people who live and work in the area. The various populations include the Cajun men and women who work on the fishing and shrimping boats, an enclave of Vietnamese fishermen and the French-speaking Houma Indians.
— BOOKTV.ORG
— heard this WaPo reporter in the middle of the night on CSPAN2 in 2003. Fascinating how he got to know the locals for his book. This description doesn’t give you what he also talked about — how New Orleans and much of that region of Louisiana will be underwater — gone — he feared soon.
— he blames the diversion of the Mississippi River and the levees which keep the water from flowing naturally.
— It was not the typical topic that would draw me in, but he was riveting. I wish the video were available.
CNN, etc. should have him on the air.
Are you back working already?? <Nurse puts hands on hips. Taps foot. Looks stern.> Are you familiar with the phrase, “put your feet up?”
Oh no .. still wading through 800 e-mails, etc. and feeling not in sync yet .. poor BOOMAN!
What a fabulous leader he is! I hope HE’s okay. Too much on his plate. He’s the best!
It’s so hard to be an internets star!!!:)Glad to see you back!
constantly on my mind right now. What if the land had been left in its natural state with a flood plain…
We come to a landscape like conquerors and rearrange it to suit our purpose but nature always wins in the end.
There are some people who never put partisanship aside, who turned 9/11 into politics immediately, and their headquarters is the White House.
This is just the beginning. Storms like this were predicted in global heating models. The victims of Bushcorps denial will of course be those with the least resources, who can’t escape.
I wouldn’t want to be the governor of Florida or any state endangered by storms and water level rises who has ignored the climate crisis.
Of course the people of New Orleans are in all our thoughts, and we hope for their safety.
Glad to hear from Susan, too. Giving up the smokes is a positive step. Ice cream, that’s another story.
Just one partisan comment:
Did any of you hear Bush’s initial address this morning?
It was by radio. It was very crackly, like Bush himself was at the epicenter of the storm!
I found that very strange. Unless CNN just wasn’t able to pick up the satellite feed when he spoke? They did show a video of him speaking later?
I hope he wasn’t trying to sound like he was battling the storm.
I’m not sure what happened there, but the audio was horrendous. They eventually showed video of the address and it too was bad. Bush looked all tanned and rested and spoke like it wasn’t too urgent and choppy. Like he was reading “My Pet Goat” to kindergarteners.
Well hell? It’s all about him after all.Showing off with no shame or responsibility.Only Stepford Laura would be so dimwitted as to put up with him,and she is drugged out .
<<singing>> welcome back…welcome back Susan….Glad you are back home, Susan…..<<hugs coming your way>>
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2005
Katrina is maintaining a classic presentation on satellite images…and category 5 intensity. The central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter plane at 1755z and 1923z was 902 mb…which is the fourth lowest on record in the Atlantic Basin behind hurricane Gilbert of 1988…the Labor Day hurricane of 1935…and hurricane Allen of 1980. Having said that…data from the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer instrument on board the aircraft suggest that the surface to 700 mb flight level wind ratio is not quite as large as we typically use…and the initial intensity is adjusted slightly to 145 kt. Hurricanes do not maintain such great intensity for very long. However there are no obvious large-scale mechanisms…such as increased vertical shear…to weaken Katrina. The hurricane is likely to make landfall with category 4 or 5 intensity.
There is not much change to the track forecast philosophy. Initial motion is about 315/11. Katrina is expected to gradually turn northward into a break in the subtropical ridge associated with a large mid-latitude cyclone near the Great Lakes. The 12z GFDL hurricane model’s track has shifted a little westward…as has the latest NOGAPS run. The official forecast is slightly to the west and slightly faster than the previous NHC track. This is very close to both the dynamical model consensus… and to the latest FSU superensemble track. Among our most reliable models…only the U.K. Met. Office is significantly to the east of the official forecast track. It should be noted that the small change in the official forecast track is essentially at the noise level. One should not focus on the exact track…particularly in the case of a hurricane as large as this one. Destructive effects will likely be felt well away from the center and it is not possible to specify which counties or parishes will experience the worst conditions.
On the basis of aircraft flight level and SFMR surface wind data…the wind radii have been expanded even more over the northern semicircle. Hurricane force winds are forecast to spread at least 150 N mi inland along the path of Katrina. Consult inland hurricane and tropical storm warnings issued by National Weather Service forecast offices.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/2100z 26.9n 89.0w 145 kt 12hr VT 29/0600z 28.3n 89.8w 145 kt 24hr VT 29/1800z 30.6n 89.9w 130 kt…inland 36hr VT 30/0600z 33.4n 89.2w 60 kt…inland 48hr VT 30/1800z 36.0n 87.5w 35 kt…inland 72hr VT 31/1800z 41.0n 81.5w 30 kt…inland 96hr VT 01/1800z 48.0n 72.5w 25 kt…extratropical 120hr VT 02/1800z…absorbed
Don’t know if this has been posted, but here is a link to a live feed from WWL TV in New Orleans.
mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
(you need Windows Media Player or something else that can view mms streams to view it)
It’s kind of surreal watching this feed, seeing the frat boys drinking beer on Bourbon Street and seeing Lexus commercials when the last thing I would be worried about right now would be buying a car.
I have to wonder what’s going to happen later tonight and tomorrow when the storm hits. If I were the people in that studio, I’d be saying “That’s it, we’re heading for Shreveport, good-bye, good luck, and God bless.”
THIS IS VERY GOOD — plays easily (not jerky), clear audio and video! THANKS!
I’ve only had it freeze up momentarily about three or four times in a couple hours of watching. I was worried that with the link to the web page being up on Kos and several other places it would be impossible to watch and I might have to leave it so Louisianans who need it rather than curious onlookers like us can watch, but I don’t think that’s the case.
Darcy sent along these links on HOW TO HELP ANIMALS DURING DISASTERS:
PETA
WDSU
CentreDaily
Miss New Orleans Blog
— And didn’t the experts during the tsunami state that diseases would NOT be spread by floating dead bodies?!
The live URL has changed. It is now:
mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
The feed from WWL died out maybe 45 minutes ago. Frankly I’m surprised it lasted that long. I’m guessing from the URL that the feed is being piped from the remote studio in Baton Rouge via KHOU which is owned by the same parent company.
on dKos: BenGoshi’s and mine are both places to post offers of housing for refugees from Katrina.
Also our joint effort to recruit housing coordinators in Southeastern cities.
Will a slight turn and slight weakening save the city? Where just a couple of hours ago, NO’s fate seemed sealed, there now seems to be a good deal of hope. Not that the area will avoid terrible floods, but that it will not get the sort of doomsday hit discussed earlier.
From Weather Underground:
HOWEVER, the odds are also going up that the eye will pass just east of downtown New Orleans. Satellite imagery clearly shows a loss of outflow and eroding away of the deep layer moisture as the TROF from the west is making a significant impact on the storm,
and a change in heading to NNE (010 deg) that I do not believe is a wobble.
Positive note — MANY of these areas are reporting water temps in the 83-85 deg range, down considerably from the high 80’s this morning. This will help slow any potential intensification.
Don’t stop praying.
Why weren’t New Orleans’ city buses organized to evacuate people who do not own cars?
Why were planes bringing people into the New Orleans on Fri and Sat?
Looks like authorities are as confused as they were in DeLillo’s novel “White Noise.”
The roof of the superdome is leaking…
Katrina’s Worst May Not Hit New Orleans
It’s being reported everywhere that the Superdome’s roof has started to leak and peel apart in some spots.
Let’s hope what’s left will remain intact enough to protect all the people there.
Approximateely 60 (SIXTY) holes in the Superdome roof, along seams; an entire seam has given way, and the people are underneath the cement overhangs to stay dry.
I hope they are okay.
Second: Universal Health Care for Americans, so everyone who’s hurt in this can have health care.
I’ll work for both of those.
PS
Last week went to doc for an “annual physical including female stuff”. First time in roughly 10 years. They gave me 30% off for paying on the spot, as I’m not insured.
Total bill: $417. WITH the 30% discount.
I’ll see them again in another 10 years.
Do you have $417 disposable income monthly? If not, please join me in working for Universal Health Care for Americans