[The Pontificator predicts primacy. Hooray! – susanhu.]
This is good news. The Democrats have opened up a massive massive lead over the Republicans in the generic “which party would you vote for” poll for the 2006 midterm elections.
The lead — 12 points — is higher than I remember it being in 2002 for the Republicans, or for either party going quite some ways back.
Suppose the elections for the U.S. Congress were being held today. Would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?
(Leaners included)
Democratic Party 50%
Republican Party 38%
Undecided / Other 12%
Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates / Newsweek
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,009 American adults, conducted on Sept. 8 and Sept. 9, 2005. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
I would not discount the possibility that 2006 will provide us with a Congressional realignment on the scale of 1994.
Thanks it is good news. Although I am worried because I do not see the Dems out attacking like the Repubs do. The Repubs are spinning Katrina and we are doing nothing. http://rawstory.com has an article up today about Governor Blanco is now praising Bush. ARRGGGHHHH!!!
The polls are good news but I feel somehow the Democratic Party could blow it. They need to work harder at Congressional seats and taking back the Senate. It is so frustrating. We have to do something, it is ours to lose if we do nothing.
Although I am worried because I do not see the Dems out attacking like the Repubs do.
The republicans recognise a values issue when they see one. The Democrats do not. They’ve been intend on protecting the DLC LA dems (like Naglin, Blanco, Landreiux and the whole sorry lot of Democrats for Life which constitutes the dem bench in LA while the republicans are trying to get out in front on poverty issues.
Time to tell the truth, accept responsibility for the local and state failures (which were unconscionable and vile), rectify them and listen to those in the ‘big tent’ and the majority of the American people who, at least, seem to have woken up to the fact that the country has a problem with the way it treats the poor and that it’s current policies, budget priorities and ‘values’ exacerbate poverty.
Problem is that the ‘centrist’ dems have just as much contempt for the poor as the republican leadership. The GOP will use the poor to justify fattening the coffers of the religious right, charities with no accountability and, of course, their donors from the business community. They’ll build a few houses but ignore the homeless. They’ll continue to throw people off of medicaid to provide the illusion of containing heathcare costs and the ‘centrist’ dems will enable them and continue to try to win elections based on the peculiar notion that it’s moral to force poor women to carry to term children they cannot afford to feed or shelter.
One thing I’ve particularly noticed is the immediate denial from blogging right-wing nominal democrats about racism as a factor in the slow state and federal response and how any conversation about this has been hijacked with hysterical claims and vicious of personal attacks which preclude any decent dialogue. I found this very telling.
Does this mean that in any generic race the dems get an automatic 12 point advantage?
that 94 was the year the a lot of redistricting kicked in, and the was a lot more competitive districts in play. It will be very tough.
Exactly. The real question is how many Congressional district are actually marginal districts and therefore up for grabs. Unfortunately, I’m hearing some very low numbers on that score.
I also heard poll results yesterday on CNN that revealed that Americans wanted to get rid of more than 50% of the current congressional reps. (I’l see if I can track that down). I assume that means Republicans and Dems.
I think it’s too early to take much comfort in those types of numbers (in your diary) considering the raw anger that’s flying around right now. That anger will subside and that lead will go down once many go back to business as usual ie. party loyalty.
It’s part of the most recent Angus Reid poll as well:
Sept. 2005
Jun. 2005
Mar. 2005
Approve
34%
33%
35%
Disapprove
54%
53%
51%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling the response to Hurricane Katrina?
Approve
46%
Disapprove
40%
Some of the disapproval of Congress comes from wingnuts (e.g., freepers) disappointed abortion has not been outlawed, Iran has not been nuked back to the Stone Age, and etc.
It’d be nice if they could poll according to Democrats, Republicans, Independents, Other and Wingnuts. 🙂
The fact is that the election is NOT going to be held today. And, if it makes any sort of difference at all, I am in that 12% and have seen nothing so far that is going to move me out of it.
Qualification: I am very irritated right now.
Come on up, and let’s head to Calgary together to help Catnip find Brad Pitt…. it’d be such a fun, mindless diversion.
P.S. The hard cider in Canada is very strong and quite delicious.
He’s mine, damnit! All MINE! (But you can come and help). 🙂
So much for Canadians being so sweet and kind.
Still, the cider might make the trip worth it.
Yes – we’re nasty bastards sometimes, but don’t tell anyone. We’ve got this “nice” thing going on so no one bothers us. It’s all outlined in the “How to be Canadian” manual that’s super duper top secret.
Canadians can’t be all that bad, eh?
At least some parts of the country are trending left…
Considering the record of the tories in NS, they deseve to be relegated to persona non grata status. Go NDP!
I have told everyone who insists on giving me christmas presents even though I have repeatedly asked them not to, or if they must, to donate to charity in my name or open a savings account for the kids, that all I want this year is enough money ($300) to get passports for everyone int he family…
How much do they cost now? Something outrageous …
when i got a passport in 1991, it was $50. (I still have it, btw, even though it’s expired … and the last time I took the ferry to Victoria, B.C., the customs guys said they prefer an expired passport to a driver’s license for ID. Of course, thanks to the GENIUSES in Congress, I won’t be able to do that again … i’ll have to get a fucking current one.)
we need 4….plus passport photos.
There may be so many of us that Catnip will need to set up refugee quarters in the local hockey arena. While I’m there I can get one of those cool Manitoba Moose jerseys, although the price seems pretty steep to me, even in Canadian dollars.
Why are hockey jerseys so #$%^ expensive, anyway?
I may be partial, though (no, really?) but I’m sorry Catnip, I still think the Knoxville Ice Bears have a cooler logo on their jerseys.
D’OH
Since Catnip told me on another thread that she’s in Alberta, not Manitoba, I guess I should get a hockey jersey with this guy on it.
P.P.S. You’re correct, of course…. as you usually are.
But what if Democrats seized the day, and carried it through to 2006?! Now that’d be something to watch, and join in on!
at this point it would be something to see them seizing ANYthing besides their own asses in both hands….as a party they have been handed opportunity after opportunity and they have done not one damned things with it — I’m sorry, but the hell with ’em!
I am hella grumpy right now.
I hate it when i feel angry like that …. I even yell at my cat 🙁 Talk about misplaced expression of anger…. well, sometimes … like when they throw up a hairball on my comforter!
Oh, and it used to make me EVEN ANGRIER when people to suggest something lame to me like, “Go pound a pillow.” WTF?!
Well, many moons ago, when my signature dish was stuffed flank steak, my girlfriends used to come over and pound the crap out of the flank steak with a (whatdoyoucallthem) meat pounder thingie.
THEY LOVED IT! I recommend it! (Just wear glasses when the blood flies.)
Even better — splitting wood. You get aggression, exercise, and a nice fire.
Used to split wood all the time when I lived in Virginia…that is one of the things on my list of things to do — find the best place to get a shitload of wood for this winter — we cannot afford the heating prices and will have to have fires a lot!!
We are more fortunate than others in that we live in relatively warm climes, but still —
Look for sawmills. Most of them sell slab wood really cheap. Some of the ones that do logging also cut up tops and sell that.
Find somebody with a wooded acreage that will trade sweat equity for wood — lots of older people around here who can’t manage a chain saw let people cut wood off their property in exchange for having their wood cut up.
I just do housework. I don’t have an axe. I don’t get angry very often. You should see my house. 🙂
Please!
Visit our house and let me piss you off!
I’m not angry — angry is a whole different animal. I’m grumpy because I am frustrated, I am irritated and sigusted and ready to fling my hands into the air and say:
THE HELL WITH IT [and don’t ask me what ‘it” is exactly]
I do not make a difference in the larger picture and I have to stop setting myself up for failure and frustration. I make a difference in my immediate world — my kids, my neighbors (not even there so much, I reckon), my friends and family. The people who are standing ont he streets who I make a point to talk with even if I have nothing to give them….in my own mind. I can only be the change I want, and I have to accept that I will not see that change on a larger scale in my lifetime, and maybe not even in my kids.
I won’t give up, but I have to stop doing what I’ve been doing int he way I’ve been doing it. It simply isn’t efficient, or even effective.
Doesn’t it matter where these people live and what city states they called? I mean…if 80% of the calls were put out in Blue states/cities….
Yes it does matter.
These types of surveys are only indicative of the mood of the electorate nation-wide. The House is elected by district and districts are gerrymandered. It has proven very tough over the last election cycles to un-seat an incumbant. However, in order to change the House this is one of the steps that has to be made: a pre-condition. So, while this doesn’t mean all that much it does mean something and is Good News.
Presumably those sorts of variables are factored into the structure of the survey and/or the final analysis.
Surveys are suprisingly accurate, especially if the same survey is conducted by multiple organizations and then the average taken over all of them (even the notorious Gallup is usually not far off the mark). However the stated margin of error should be taken into account when interpreting the results. The probability that the error exceeds the margin is something like 1 in 10000 — unlikely but not impossible.
In general, yes – surveys can give an accurate snapshot of public opinion; IF they are done correctly AND if the survey is put in the correct context.
It was a national telephone poll. Comparing a national sample to a sample for any particular Congressional District – which is actually where the House will be elected – is a weak inductive argument and, thus, uncogent.
Now here is a question for you: how has the ‘Do Not Call List’ affected random sampling in telephone surveys?
that there IS opportunity out there to turn things around in the power structure of this country. It won’t just happen, but is doable given smart candidates who are willing to put themselves and their beliefs on the line without pandering to religious nutcases or flagwaving subversives. It also means that Dems or better must have viable candidates in EVERY district, whatever the polls or pundits may claim. There’s a constituency out there. Now it’s up to the Dems to connect with it. If we do, the Bush debacle could mark the start of an American turned decent again.
What he said.
Perhaps an intensive investigation and research project – archeological? – to find and then re-affix spines to the various Democratic leaders and organizations is in order?
When you add in the preznits numbers, and look at the fact that Katrina was a natural disaster, and then a political disaster.
And now look at the fact that it is quickly becoming a financial disaster for the taxpayer. There is still a lot of room for the “trifecta of incompetence” to go down even more.
I have a feeling that by the time Pfitz makes any announcements numbers are going to drop even faster for anything attached to the GOP.
If they prosecute rove, libby, etc., than bush has knowingly had criminals working for him. If they don’t prosecute anyone, HONEST AMERICANS will be screaming for some form of justice.
They will get their “pound of flesh” in the voters booth, either way.
All of the talk for years about how 3rd party candidates will eventually kill Dems? I think you may see slight gains in the Dem votes, regardless of candidates or issues. But nothing huge, and I think you may see more for the Greens this time, if they chose the right candidate.
Here is the kicker though:
I really don’t see real conservatives voting for the GOP. Look for surges in Badnarik supporters and/or for them to sit on their hands when it comes to the next round of elections. (Barring any disastrous miracles for the GOP?)
It may not have completely sunk in yet… But wait until they see the tax bill for Katrina, coupled with the images of failure to respond, and add to that the likelyhood that oil is not going to get any cheaper with winter coming on. Honest conservatives will not be able to support this crap anymore.
No new taxes is again the Gop cry. Instead we’ll cut even more from the disabled, the poor, the environment, the safety net, education, science, and infrastructure (at least the parts that aren’t on the news at the moment). Republicans care about none of the above. Don’t look to them for change — they are not educable. But there’s a whole wavery constituency of clueless voters and nonvoters who might just be finally ready to wake up, learn something for a change, and start working to put the humans back in charge of America. That’s where we need to be trawling.
.
Means we have to work harder now the repugs are in an underdog position.
Same thing is happening in Germany with CDU Mrs. Angela Merkel, the strong lead of twenty percentage points has caved in to seven. The balance of the leftist parties is at 50% – equivalent to CDU and FDP Liberals, just one day before the elections.
De Welle – Close Contest
It’s also very important for the European Union: the relationship between the leading countries UK, France and Germany. Angela Merkel wants to increase the influence of the smaller countries, let the larger countries communicate better with their neighboring states, to improve im- and export and the economy.
Gerhard Schröder of the Socialist Party is the better communicator before a crowd and in debates on television.
▼ ▼ ▼
if anyone thinks for one second that the gop is worrying, they are smoking some fine stuff! Given the fact the dems such as biden, lieberman, bayh, and their ilk are willing to behave like gop’ers, what do they have to worry about. Now, if some of our true dem leaders were to rush to the chimps side, the dems might just as well fold up and head home, but thank g-d that we don’t have to worry about that happening!
Oooops, WAPO today! oh well, maybe 2040 will bring new hope for the dems!
billjpa@aol.com
If there is a realignment going on, we need to have strong candidates in every Congressional District–every one, all 435 of them. And for every single US Senate open or Republican seat that is up for re-election.
And we, yes that’s us, must have an organization that motivates Democrats in each of the 192,480 precincts to turn out in a non-presidential year. Total turnout for Democratic candidates has to approach 65 million to ensure a landslide realignment.
We are being given a unique opportunity. Let’s overwhelm the corrupt system and take it.