Interim results in the New Zealand election:
| Party | Vote % | Seats |
| Labour | 40.74 | 50 |
| National | 39.63 | 49 |
| NZ First | 5.84 | 7 |
| Green | 5.07 | 6 |
| Maori Party | 1.98 | 4 (overhang) |
| United Future | 2.72 | 3 |
| ACT | 1.52 | 2 |
| Progressive | 1.21 | 1 |
There are still 193,000 special votes to be counted, so there could be some change in these figures, but that’s the broad sweep of things.
Labour has held its vote share and will probably retain power. The Greens and Progressives are already pledged to support them, and both NZ First and United have said they will negotiate first to support the largest party. The exact shape of the government – whether it is an LPG or LUP coalition, or a Labour-Progressive minority government – will depend on negotiations, but Helen Clark has done what no other Labour leader has done: win herself a third term. In the process, she’s hopefully buried 90’s neoliberalism for good.
Policywise, there’s unlikely to be much substantive change, and certainly I can’t see any change to our independent foreign policy. New Zealand will continue to support multilateralism and oppose US unilateralism. The anti-nuclear legislation is also safe. The casualty is likely to be the prospect of further socially progressive legislation; we may not see progress of gay adoption or marijuana legalisation this term. “Right to die” legislation is probably still on the cards, though the question there is more about proper safeguards than underlying principles.
Despite his good showing, National party leader Don Brash is likely to be rolled within the year. There’s a good chance of a National Prime Minister in 2008, and at least three people who will be chasing that job. He has said he will not retire from Parliament, but its unlikely there will be any place for him after a leadership change. The finance spot he previously held is firmly taken, and he’s unlikely to be happy with a mere associates role. Which means he will probably go back to the kiwifruit farm, allowing a younger MP to take his place from the list.
Overall this is not a resounding victory for the left – but its not the defeat the right were hoping to inflict.
Idiot/Savant
No Right Turn – New Zealand’s liberal blog
