Update [2005-9-19 00:44:30 by Oui]:
for Chancellor Leadership ::
- Too Close to Call
225 CDU/CSU [-22]
222 SDP [-27]
61 FDP [+14]
54 Linkspartei [+52]
51 Greens [-4]
.. Others
Deutsche Welle – english –
CDU, SPD Claim Victory
Without Majority
● Parties Put the Spin on Election Results
● “Only God Knows Who Will Win”
● Election 2005
● DW-TV on election projections
Gerhard’s one day of joy will soon turn sour. He may be in denial, and still sees himself as savior of German economic problems, perhaps he should review his own arguments for holding these early elections. Those facts haven’t changed and will make a third term as Chancellor highly unlikely, unless he is willing to put Germany’s future at stake.
2005 9/18 9/19
EUR/$ 1.2232 1.2136 ▼
$/JPY 111.35 111.33
GBP/$ 1.8078 1.8025 ▼
Germany needs a solution to proceed in economic reform and take a tough stance and committment on policy.
Only if the CDU-CSU Christian Democratic Union wants to continue with Angela Merkel
as their political leader, will she have a chance to become Germany’s first woman Chancellor.
A lot of questions that have to be cleared up in the coming 2-3 weeks and end the uncertainty for not only Germans, but also the EU and International relationships in the World. The worst outcome of an election has become reality the political leaders will face as a new day dawns. Who is Germany’s true leader … or will Germany be heading in a devastating period of uncertainty, political stalemate and further weakening of its economy.
● WaPo – Divided German Voters Leave New Leadership Uncertain
BERLIN, Sept. 18 — German voters dumped Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s government but split their ballots among so many different parties that none was able to muster enough support to replace it.
Exit polls indicated that the German electorate was more fragmented than it had been in any other national vote in recent history, a reflection of deep anxiety over record unemployment and years of anemic growth in the world’s third-largest economy.
Will keep diary UPDATED!
More to follow below the fold »»
German Election Result Will Be Delayed After Candidate’s Death
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) — The final result of Germany’s election on Sept. 18 will be delayed by at least two weeks after the death of a candidate forced the postponement of voting in one of the 299 electoral districts.
Voters in the district in the eastern city of Dresden, will have to wait until at least the first weekend of October to cast their ballots after the local candidate for the anti-immigration National Democratic Party, Kerstin Lorenz, died.
The delay means the votes from the district’s 219,000-strong electorate may decide the final election result.
In the last election in 2002, only 6,000 votes separated Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s Social Democratic Party from the opposition Christian Democrats.
Linkepartei – a group anti-Schröder from Eastern part of Germany, ex-commies – are the big winners. Last election with 4,7% of vote, missed minimum of 5% to gain seats in parliament; with 8,7% of vote and 54 seats, their goal for these elections was reached: prevent Schröder to continue as Chancellor and to prevent an outright majority of CDU-CSU and FDP administration with Angela Merkel. So far, the Linkepartei leadership refuse to be part of either coalition to form a new government.
A stalemate has been reached – either a GRAND coalition of both largest parties should be formed or perhaps a minority government, which takes over until in the short term new elections will be held.
Merkel’s party won 225 seats, three more than the Social Democrats; the Free Democrats got 61, the Left Party 54 and the Greens 51. Germany’s legislature has at least 598 seats — but often more — elected under proportional representation from party lists. The outgoing parliament, for example, has 601 lawmakers.
Merkel’s preferred coalition partners — the pro-business Free Democrats — had 9.8 percent, leaving such an alliance short of outright victory. The Greens, the Social Democrats’ current governing partner, had 8.1 percent; together, the two parties failed to reach a majority, ending Schroeder’s government.
The Left Party had 8.7 percent of the vote, but Schroeder said he would not work with them. The overall election turnout was 77.7 percent.
Exit Poll: Germans Oust Schroeder’s Party
Major upset as earlier polls had predicted large gains for Angela Merkel, performance very poor.
Gerhard Schröder keeps losses limited to minor difference with winner CDU-CSU Angela Merkel.
Is uncertain which coalition will be formed.
- Parliament total 598 seats - possible coalitions:
- GRAND coalition CDU-CSU with SPD 448 seats
- Stoplight coalition SPD - FDP - Greens with 335 seats
- SPD - Greens - Linke with 328 seats
- CDU - FDP - Greens? with 337 seats.
EXIT POLLS RESULT :: at close of polls
221 CDU/CSU
207 SDP
65 FDP
53 Linkspartei
52 Greens
.. Others
First Analysis :: Poor performance for CDU-CSU in East German region. Angela Merkel lost much support, as the new Linksepartei wins 53 seats. The new party was formed as a social opposition party to Gerhard Schröder and is combined with many ex-commies from the Eastern region. These Germans still feel neglected, and have a high unemployment rate.
Germany’s Christian Democrats, led by Angela Merkel, have narrowly won Sunday’s election, exit polls suggest.
After voting ended Ms Merkel – who wants to introduce far-reaching reforms to revive a flagging economy – said her party had a “clear mandate” to govern. However it is unclear whether her party has won enough support to form a government with the Free Democrats (FDP).
Observers say she could be forced into a GRAND coalition with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s Social Democrats.
Germany’s ARD television puts the Christian Democrats in the lead with 35.5% of the vote, ahead of the Social Democrats on 34%.
The BBC’s William Horsley in Berlin says the exit polls suggest a tense wait as vote counting goes on, before it is clear what combination of parties may form the next government.
1. Social Democrats (SPD): 249
2. Christian Democrats/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU): 247
3. Greens: 55
4. Free Democrats (FDP): 47
5. Others: 3
German voters’ views
Analysis: Power struggle
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Major failure of the German polls ahead of this election.
An early lead of Angela Merkel – 23 percentage points – over rival and Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, had decreased to a 7-8 points firm lead.
The exit poll, historically very accurate in Germany, shows a small difference of only 2-3 points tonight.
A coalition of (50%) needs 300 seats in parliament, Angela Merkel with her proposed coalition partner FDP would score 286 seats. The gain came from the FDP, who more than doubled the predicted result of around 5%!
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ARD has the SPD now up to 213 seats and the Union has 220,
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I understood the exit polls gave a prediction of the final result.
The count in the media is based on the election results coming in from all regions in Germany. They do not predict the final result, as there are regional differences, large metropolitan and industrial areas and of course the major disconnect between East and West.
Will keep close watch on the incoming numbers and their meaning.
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Interesting article: Angela Merkel and the Bush administration, German politics
BY M.N. HEBBAR (BERLIN)
8 March 2003 Old article, but shows Merkel to be another blood thirsty elitist…
LINK: http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20editorials/2003%20Opinion%20Editorials/March%202003%20op%20eds/
Aljazeerah%20Opinion%20Editorials,%20March%208,%202003/Angela%20Merkel%20and%20the%20Bush%20administ
ration,%20German%20politics,%20by%20M%20Hebbar,%20aljazeerah.info%20Opion%20eds.htm
“In the process, however, Angela Merkel committed a faux pas that has infuriated the German government. She breached an unwritten rule of international diplomacy that precludes criticism of one’s own government in foreign lands by publishing an opinion piece in the Washington Post before her arrival.
Entitled “Schrder does not speak for all Germans”, the article found Merkel criticising the German government for its stance on Iraq, Had her party been in office, she said, Germany would have joined the eight European countries that put out a declaration supporting American policy.”
CIA involvement, could be….
Interesting: ” Merkel’s rallying cry – “dictators understand only the language of threat” – has served to boost her party’s image and has fallen in line with the thinking of the US administration.” Sounds like bush “dictators understand only the language of threat”
Another leader to do the elitists work…. At least Gerhard Schroeder HAS BALLS, something that could not be said for gore or kerry..
al jazeera info should be taken very carefully – this is not al jazeera but rather a site which includes a lot of completely crazy stuff. In this case the article is fine but so what. Everyone here who would object to a top Dem leader publishing an op ed in FAZ or Le Monde saying ‘Bush does not speak for all Americans’ please raise your hand.
And CIA involvement… huh? Are you suggesting that they’re deliberately sabotaging the German right? You’ll have to explain your reasoning on why they’d do that…
Btw. opposing the Iraq War – doesn’t take much courage to adopt a view shared by a large majority of the electorate. The CDU’s hesitation about the Iraq War was they key issue that kept them out of power in 2002. Now they’ve somehow managed the most stunning electoral screw up I’ve seen in a long time.
I actually remember reading that article at the time it was published. It is the main reason I haven’t trusted Merkel and was cheering against her in this election.
That said, it doesn’t strike me as particularly bad to publish such an article, although Merkel’s piece is talking BS – he “doesn’t speak for all Germans”? Well, he spoke for enough of them at the time. Sure, the Socialist Worker’s party speaks for a lot of Americans, too.
One final point. I don’t begrudge Merkel publishing such a piece, but imagine if, say, Howard Dean, John Kerry, or Hillary Clinton wrote such an article in LeMonde – what would the GOP reaction to that be?
What I mean by my last point is that it is one thing for an American editorialist, activist, or intellectual – say Paul Krugman, Michael Moore, or Eric Foner – to publish this piece. It is quite another for a party leader to do so.
Ben P
Ich bin ein Berliner!
(I am a sugar coated doughnut stuffed with jam.)
This is one huge surprise. Everybody, EVERYBODY, was expecting a Black/Yellow coalition win.
These results are going to make it very hard to form a goverment.
This one looks messy with no mandate for anyone. No doubt it will be the people who suffer as the leaders start their arrogant posturing.
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“Bos wins, Balkenende decides,” was the headline in the Volkskrant newspaper – Jan. 23, 2003. It is difficult to argue with the Dutch daily’s conclusion.
Purple coalition of Socialist PvdA – VVD Liberal Democrats – D66 Green Liberals was equivalent to German Stoplight coalition Socialist SDP – FDP Free Democrats – Green Party of Joshka Fischer. After two full terms of reign by PM Wim Kok, the Socialist Party lost the following election by a landslide to the Christan Democrats CDA of PM Balkenende.
However, the circumstance of a major new party of Pim Fortuyn LPF and his assassination on the eve of the election, gave an unstable new government. An early election was won by CDA and PM Balkenende with a single seat difference in parliament, over their main rivals the Socialists party of Wouter Bos. A stalemate was reached, very similar to the outcome of the German election on Sunday.
Balkenende formed a new coalition between CDA – VVD and the small party D66 Green Liberals. Although not expected to be in leadership for an extended period, the new government did have a profound concern over the poor economic situation in the Netherlands and the need for reform and a cut in expenses by the administration. The polls dropped to all-time lows as the policy effected all levels of Dutch society and consumer spending. However, during recent weeks, the expectation for economic growth in 2006 has been upped to 2.5%, a lot better than the zero growth over the last 4-5 years.
For Germany’s economic health, it seems necessary for a GRAND coalition or perhaps the Jamaica coalition of CDU/CSU – FDP – Greens to run an administration of economic and social reform. Reforms that Chancellor Schröder did not manage during his 7 years reign.
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The block to a ‘Stop Light’ coalition is the CDU’s control of the Lander and, therefore, the Upper House of Parliament. This gives the CDU effective control of any legistation so one would guess they need to be in the governing coalition.
A Black/Red Coalition has the numbers but would the SPD be willing to be the junior partner in such a deal? But that is the only way I can see the CDU forming a goverment. Would a Black/Yellow/Green coalition last? (I’m out of touch with day to day politics but I doubt it.)
Here’s one for speculation: Black/Red/Yellow/Green. That one gives the broadest possible base for the economic and social reforms which everyone (?) agrees is necessary.