Is it enough?

The rightwingers, the religious cults and some of us who are fascinated with prophecies and Nostradamus have felt some kind of need for the apocalypse.  I think perhaps it is a response to the kind of God archetype we have created.  Maybe we want some kind of mass happening to prove that there truly is a God and he/it is not finished with us.

So what do you think?  Is it enough to see New Orleans destroyed, her people torn asunder, the gulf towns of Mississippi leveled almost completely to satisfy that primal scream of connection with that God archetype?  And in Iraq where almost 1000 people have killed each other in fear, is that enough?

What else is needed to complete the picture that we are all connected both with each other, with God (whatever your own view of that is) and our earth?

Today’s Topical Limericks (BONUS!) "The Flyby"

“THE FLYBY”

“Hey, Pilot! Woncha’ bring `er down lower!”
“But Sir… I can’t fly it much slower…”
“I’ll get off this squawk box,
An’ knock your head in your socks,
Yer’ ass is grass, and I’ll be the mower”

“We’re descending, we’ll bring her about…
Roger, Wilco, Sir… over and out,”
“Karl, ya see what I mean,
Ya gotta make a big scene,
True leadership’s `bout usin’ yer clout…”

(Continued after the fold, plus five topical limericks!)

“Hey, ya’ll, take a look out this winder,
Heh… looks like it’s been through a blender…
Little ants in a pond,
I just wave my big wand,
George Bush… human sufferin’ ender…”

“Them levees let that Ponchertrain Lake in,”
“Sir , the War took a lot of their bacon…”
“Karl, you know that’s a sin…
Gotta make with the spin…”
“Better play ball…  this Blanco and Nagin…”

“Down there! I think I see me some looters…
See the ones by the girl with the hooters?
Ya think Air Force One,
Could get Gatling guns?”
“I don’t know, sir… we’d never make it past Souter…”

“So they’re looters, sir… how can you tell?”
“They’re like the Cong back in Nam, there Michelle…
They’ll just drop or they’ll run,
Once they’ve heard the big gun,
And the runners… you just lead them real well…”

“My God, Karl! What’s that terrible sound?”
“Stall warning… we almost hit the ground…
We darned near clipped the dome,
Let’s just head `er back home…
I see the press now… it’s `Chicken Hawk Drowned’…”

“Who’s the pilot, I want to go meet `em,
My pants… damn… think I just mighta’ peed `em…
That’s a really close call,
Almost dropped the football…
Could we get him a Medal of Freedom…?”

Bush says that there’s a lot of help coming,
Foreign Aid? Says we shouldn’t be slumming,
You must starve by the laws,
Conserve gas, use rickshas,
To fix the Oiligarchy’s old plumbing…

Camp Casey is being disbanded,
“The Shrub” has been really backhanded.
This was no defeat,
BUSH beat the retreat,
This war o’er our country’s expanded…

`Tis sad that it’s now the “Big Queasy”
With waters all sickening and greasy.
Now with fears of West Nile,
And old germs more motile,
Sanitation restoration’s not breezy…

With Katrina and the war with Jihadists,
The new spin on the economy’s oddest…
Our oil production’s way down,
They’re all smiles, not a frown
Better run… if they’re using the word “Modest”…

Bunol, Spain’s in the news for excess,
“Tomatina” won’t famine address…
While chucking the maters,
Internal debaters,
Thought to send pizza pie as redress…

We need a New Plan for Iraq

Cross posted at JoeHoeffelandFriends.com and Mydd.com.

Our current plan in Iraq is not working.  We are not reaching our goals there, and it is quite possible we never will.
Every American shares the President’s goal of establishing a tolerant, pluralistic Iraqi democracy  that would be our ally and help bring peace and freedom to the Middle East.  Few Americans remain optimistic about reaching this goal.
We cannot pull out our troops abruptly and hand the insurgents what would be a devastating victory, but neither can we continue to make an open-ended military commitment to prop up the “Republic of Iraq” at a huge cost in American lives and treasure.
We need a new plan for America’s future involvement that sets a deadline – not on us but on Iraq.  We need Iraq to take over her own security against the insurgency.  This new plan must provide clearly that we will stay in Iraq only as long as the Iraqi government and its military and security forces are stepping forward to fight for themselves.  If Iraqis won’t fight for their own freedom and for the goal of a unified Iraq by our deadline, which sadly is very possible, then at that point we should bring our troops home.
Our military forces courageously defeated the Iraqi army two and one-half years ago, but we have yet to stabilize the country.  Iraq remains a dangerous place where we are losing on average two soldiers each day since our invasion.  Our troops are the best in the world, but obviously we have too few troops in Iraq, American or international, to control the raging and murderous insurgency.
The new government in Iraq will not be an American-style democracy.  The Iraqi constitution establishes Islam as a primary source of civil law, and the constitution will not fully protect the rights of  women or religious minorities.  Unlike the United States, where the majority rules and the minority has guaranteed and enforceable rights under our constitution,  Iraq will be ruled under the tyranny of a theocratic majority.
Our misadventure in Iraq is the greatest foreign policy debacle in United States history.  It has created more terrorists than we have captured or killed, and has made our country less safe in the war against terror.
Our standing in the world is at a low point, astonishing since the entire world viewed us with sympathy and support following 9/11.  Our arrogance and go-it-alone strategy and cowboy diplomacy has pushed away our friends and encouraged our enemies.
The President argues that we must stay the course in Iraq, which means maintaining current troop levels of about 140,000.  But that level of military force has not been able to stabilize Iraq over the last two and one half years, and the insurgency is getting stronger.
Without security and stability in Iraq,  there is no hope to establish a truly democratic, Western-friendly government or a free and tolerant civil society.
It is time to change the plan.
Clearly, the troops opposing the insurgency need to be at least triple the current force level, as the Army Chief of Staff advised Secretary Rumsfeld in 2003.
Given America’s other commitments and growing unhappiness with the war,  we cannot  achieve such an increase.  Given the poor state of our diplomatic relations, our traditional allies and the international community are not interested in that level of support.
That leaves the Iraqis themselves as the only source of the additional military and security forces.  The President recognizes this reality when he says Americans will stand down in  Iraq when the Iraqis stand up.  But when will that day be reached?
Let us set a deadline for the Iraqis- say, in six months, or next March on the third anniversary of our invasion – for their new government to be sufficiently formed and military and security forces sufficiently trained by us for the Republic of Iraq to take over.  It is their country, and at some point they will have to run it and defend it.
If at the time of the deadline the Iraqis are making real progress but aren’t yet ready to take over, we could choose to stay on and help.  If they are ready to defend themselves, we could decide to stand down in an orderly fashion.
But if the Iraqis are not ready, and are not making progress, even under the pressure of our deadline, then it might be time for us to leave.  If Iraqis cannot rally around the ideal of a united nation, and won’t fight for their own freedom, then the insurgency is guaranteed a victory, sooner or later.  The sooner we know the better.

Willie Horton – Please Report to New Orleans

I was listening to the BBC World News Service broadcast on NPR.  The lead story from the U.S. was President Bush’s response to Katrina.  They paraphrase his statement this morning as saying, essentially, “We will take any means necessary to restore law and order, in New Orleans.  Looting, gas gouging, and insurance fraud will not be tolerated.”

Listening to CNN now, a reporter confirms gunfire in the city, and agrees with the characterization that New Orleans is “going over the edge.”

Everywhere this story is shifting from a humanitarian disaster, for which we were ill-prepared, and for which our federal government’s response has been poor, into a story with this headline:

Bush Declares War on Insurgents on the Gulf

of Mexico.  Will Fight Terror of Disgruntled Minority

I just see this whole thing being spun in a Rovian manner.  Pile on enough MSM images of people looting.  Mass unrest.  Hindering the national response.  As a way of managing the colossal fuck-up that this was.

Reports of shots fired at helicopter now.  It is a full blown fucking insurgency.

Fuck this information.  Poor people were left behind.  Largely black people were left behind.  They have been rotting without any effective response for days.  They can steal all the food, clothing, and guns they fucking want in my book.  God bless them for trying to fucking survive.  And, now, the greatest mobilization, at least it seems from the news I am getting, is to suppress their insurgent activity.

It reminds me of a comedian’s line during the controversy surrounding the beating of Rodney King.  “If you ever see me in that situation, put down the fucking camera, and help me.”

Am I insane, or is this the political gambit that is going to be played?  Even white, Democratic Governor Blanco is in on the act, saying words to the effect that, “We will do what it takes to restore law and order.”  Why don’t you do what it fucking takes to restore food and shelter?  Fucking worried about fucking insurance fraud.  Vomit.

Also, just to throw this in.  Fucking Haley Barbour – “It’s going to be hard.”  Everything that the Republicans fuck up, is now explained away as being “hard.”  Fuck off.  Leading is hard.  Step the fuck out of the way if you don’t want to do it.

The reaction to this disaster is one of the worst moments I have ever seen in this country.  Fucking ridiculous.

Just my two cents.

This cafe closed/ new one open

Dear Froggers,

UPDATE! I just realised that polls can’t be updated without going to a whole new diary, so please read this new “poll” and then vote in the comments:

How often shall we convene?
* Once a month to discuss the whole book.

* Every other month

* Read one chapter a week and meet weekly

* Other


Greetings from the midwest, where I feel profoundly grateful this morning that my family and I are dry, sheltered, fed, and safe. I hope you are equally blessed. I wish all of our brothers and sisters in the South could be so fortunate as we. It is, to a great extent, through this blog that we find out the news about them and how we can help them.

The other day, in this diary. . .LINK. . .BooMan leveled with us about the financial challenges of running this beloved blog. If you didn’t read his diary then, I hope you will now.

One idea that came out of it: run Powell’s Bookstore advertising. We’re big readers here, right? So why not direct our book buying dollars to a place that will benefit this blog? All the better that Powell’s is a an independent book store and a unionized, very Blue company.

That led to a second idea: Let’s have a regular BooMan Book Club in conjunction with Powell’s. We’ll pick a book having to do with politics/current events/history. We’ll get our copies from Powell’s, using the links on this site. We’ll all read it at the same time and then have a rollicking good discussion and arm wrestling about it.

I’ll keep this simple, so we can discuss and decide.

I’ll run three polls today:

POLL #1 will run until noon CST: WHICH DAY OF THE WEEK TO HOLD OUR DISCUSSION?

POLL #2 will run from noon to 6 p.m. CST today: FREQUENCY OF BOOK CLUB DISCUSSIONS (every two weeks, every month, every other month, etc.)?

POLL #2 will run all night and it’s the one you really won’t want to miss:  WHICH BOOK?

This is a regular cafe day, so we’ll chat as we always do, but if you’re interested in the book club, let us know below what you think about frequency and book choice. I’ll argue for the book I’d most like to read and you guys give it your best for your book choice. I’ll read all your comments and use what you say to guide my next two polls.

Reading, talking to each other, making a little money for BooMan Tribune. . .shouldn’t that be somebody’s idea of heaven? 🙂

I’ll prime the pump for one of the choices in the first poll. As ejmw pointed out in another thread, Saturday is the low traffic day for this site, so maybe that would be a good day to “meet.” (The bookstore will be a its own diary, not a Cafe diary.)  
I suggest: You decide.

ONE MORE THING! We need a name. Let’s decide the frequency/day/book today and then I’ll announce them in a diary tomorrow. I’ll run one last poll at that time and we’ll choose a name.

The Middle East Pulse

The Daily Pulse blog is up and running, and we are looking for regular contributors to write columns on the pulse of the world.  If you’re interested, please drop me an email.

Today, I’ve cross-posted The Middle East Pulse, a survey of editorials from the Middle East.  these are fascinating points of view on Iraq, the constitutional process, the Gaza pull out, and even relgion, the wrath of God, and Hurricane Katrina.

Read, enjoy, and come to The Daily Pulse for editorials, letters, columnists, and even a place for you to add your own local points of view.
Jerusalem Post

This is an absolutely fascinating view on religion, defiance, and subjugation, written from a Jewish point of view.  The writer begins with claims by some that Hurricane Katrina was just punishment for the sins of New Orleans, and weaves from there Karl Marx, Pat Robertson, suicide bombers, and Jacob sparring with angels.  It is definitely a must-read.

Why Do Flood Victims Suffer?

Just a little over a month ago I visited the Gulf Coast states of Mississippi and Louisiana on a radio road trip across America’s Deep South. When I arrived on Bourbon Street in the French quarter of New Orleans, with its sex shops and year-round Mardi Gras drunkenness, I told my listeners, jokingly, that no doubt the Big Easy (as New Orleans is known) would one day be swallowed by the earth in some awesome display of the divine wrath. The joke became all too real in the terrible aftermath of Hurricane Katrina that devastated the Gulf Coast, leaving New Orleans submerged in a deluge reminiscent of Noah’s flood. …

WHAT IS at issue here is not just the rancid old chestnut of some religious people attributing natural disasters, like last year’s tsunami, as being the consequence of sin, but something far more insidious.

It was Karl Marx who famously argued that religious people are drug addicts whose barbiturate of choice is God. Far from being bold and courageous, Homo religiosus was a weak individual who used religion as a crutch even as his faith rendered him passive, feeble and subservient. Religion taught people not to challenge, but to submit. Not to question, but to obey. …

For many of the faithful, the closer they come to God, the more they become enemies of man. When a cataclysm renders tens of thousands of innocent people homeless, it is the victims who are guilty while God is always innocent. Perhaps these communities tolerated large homosexual populations. Maybe they allowed an abortion clinic in their midst. While God is perfect, man is inadequate. While God is righteous, man is sinful….

In Christianity grace is not achieved without the total surrender of the believer to Christ. Likewise, the very word Islam means to submit. But Israel translates literally as “he who wrestles with God,” the man or woman who is prepared to rattle even the foundations of the heavens in the name of life and justice.

Judaism gave rise to the defiant man of faith, the man who like Jacob spars with angels and defeats them. The Jew is a child of Abraham who went so far as to accuse God of injustice when the Almighty sought to the destruction of both the righteous and the wicked of Sodom and Gomorrah at once. …

The world today is replete with too many negative religious stereotypes that have gravely harmed the cause of faith. Secularists point to fanatical Islamic terrorists who blow themselves up as proof that religion is dangerous to the body. On the other side, they point to questionable comments, like that of Pat Robertson who last week inferred that the United States should assassinate Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, as proof that religion is equally dangerous to the mind, causing one to suspend rational judgment in favor of the irrational and the idiotic.

What is finally needed, after thousands of years of religious unrest, is the defiant man of faith who believes that his principal religious calling is to defy the heavens in defense of human life. …
The writer is a syndicated radio talk show host in the US and the author, most recently, of Hating Women: America’s Hostile Campaign Against the Fairer Sex www.shmuley.com

Bahrain Tribune

This fascinating editorial begins by pointing out that the present Iraqi constitutional process is being forced upon the country at the end of somebody else’s gun.  The proposed constitution is internally inconsistent on crucial matters (e.g. no law can supercede Islam vs. independent judiciary with power above it).  But its ultimate conclusion is that the process is a sham, a debate taking place entirely within the Green Zone, without the participation of the Iraqi people.  As such, it is merely a “fake representative process.”  It also makes an interesting argument that in 1789, representative democracy was an exciting and radical idea, but today it is an old and staid idea, which should best be replaced by actual participatory democracy.  Given the existence of modern technology and communications, is it really best to stick with a system created when it took one man days or even weeks to communicate with the capitol by horse or boat?

How to Avoid Civil War In Iraq

BETWEEN the idea and the reality falls the shadow of occupation. Whatever the parliamentarians in Iraq do to try to prevent total meltdown, their efforts are compromised by the fact that their power grows from the barrel of someone else’s gun. When George Bush picked up the phone last week to urge the negotiators to sign the constitution, he reminded Iraqis that their representatives – though elected – remain the administrators of his protectorate. While US and British troops stay in Iraq, no government there can make an undisputed claim to legitimacy. Nothing can be resolved in that country until our armies leave. …

Can anything be done? It might be too late. But it seems to me that the transitional assembly has one last throw of the dice. This is to abandon the constitution it has signed, and Bush’s self-serving timetable, and start again with a different democratic design. …

But when negotiations are confined to the green zone’s black box, the Iraqis have no sense that the process belongs to them. Because they are not asked to participate, they are not asked to understand where other people’s interests lie and how they might be accommodated. And when the whole thing goes belly up, it will be someone else’s responsibility. If Iraq falls apart over the next couple of years, it would not be unfair, among other factors, to blame the fact that Davis and Hart were ignored. For the people who designed Iraq’s democratic processes, history stopped in 1787.

Deliberative democracy is not a panacea. You can have fake participatory processes just as you can have fake representative ones. But it is hard to see why representation cannot be tempered by participation. Why should we be forbidden to choose policies, rather than just parties or entire texts? Can we not be trusted? If not, then what is the point of elections? The age of purely representative democracy is surely over. It is time the people had their say.

– Guardian Newspapers Limited

The Middle East Times (Cyprus)

This writer posits that the only reason Iraqis are “the enemy” is because America invaded Iraq, brutalized its people, and destroyed its infrastructure, all in a ploy to take over the oil fields.  You can see from this just how much damage has been done to America’s reputation by Abu Ghraib, and our failure to repair the bombed-out water and power facilities.  The Iraqis have less water and power than they did under Hussein, and the truth of the matter is most people judge the government, elected, dictatorial, or occupying, based upon the quality of their individual lives, and right now, outside the Green Zone, we are not looking good.

The Reality-Challenged Challengers to Cindy Sheehan

It is probably the fault of the media. Or maybe the failure of the public education system. Whosoever fault it is, the American citizens who have flocked to Crawford, Texas, to say that Cindy Sheehan does not speak for them, and to demand that Cindy stop giving aid and comfort to “the enemy”, know little about Iraq.

A couple of years ago virtually no Iraqis would describe themselves as enemies of the US. Iraqis welcomed Americans as tourists and as guests. Iraqis came to America to study as university students and maintained close ties with Americans and with their relatives in America. There was no enmity between Iraqis and Americans. …

The American military came to Iraq and brutalized, sodomized and humiliated the Iraqi people. That is what happened. And some Iraqis started fighting back against the illegal, brutal occupation, thus becoming “the enemy”. …

If not for oil the US Army would not be in Iraq, and the spectacular gamble to take over and control Iraq’s oil is not working, because Iraqis know that American success in controlling their oil is tantamount to colonial subjugation. Iraqis have been there and done that with colonial Britain and many would rather die than be subjugated. And so they fight on. …

Americans should get a grip on reality. If we were invaded we would fight till the invaders left. That is what Iraqis are doing and will continue to do until they drive us out. Then, after a period of healing, we can become friends once again. Our enemies in Iraq are enemies of our own making. Let us never forget this reality.

Stan Moore is a member of several falconry and ornithological clubs and organizations. Acknowledgement to Media Monitors Network (MMN)

The Middle East Times (Cyprus)

Hamas is hurting the Palestinian cause, this editorial opines.  Three factors are important.  First, Israel is unilaterally acting by pulling out of Gaza.  Second, the Palestinian people actually had an election, and did NOT elect Hamas. Third, times have changed, and the Arab nations will not make war with Israel; therefore action against Israel is suicide, rather than tinder for a conflagration.

Time for Hamas to Shut Up

The Palestinians are on the verge of a great moment in their history as Israel pulls all its forces and settlers, unilaterally, out of Gaza making this part of Palestine free for the first time since 1948.

Nothing would be more irresponsible than actions to interrupt that historic moment by the various movements, particularly Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement, and others like it that are out of control in Palestine. …

Therefore it was alarming to read an interview on August 17 with Hamas leader Mahmoud Al Zahar asserting in Asharq Al Awsat newspaper that:

“… shall never recognize a state by the name or its right to own a single inch in Palestine. This is what our Muslim religion dictates. Palestine is the property of Islam and Muslims. It is not, repeat not, owned by Palestinians or by Arabs. To say the least this is a highly unwise, almost criminal, kind of statement on so many counts.” …

This is 2005 not the 1960s and Vietnam. The world, Dr. Al Zahar, has changed. To be perfectly frank, the Arab world, let alone the Muslim world you talk about have pretty much walked away from any concepts of armed conflict with Israel. Syria has not fought for its occupied land one day since 1973. Lebanon’s Hizbullah is becoming a political party. And, Islamic suicide bombers, as you know very well, have now become a blotch on the name of Islam and Muslims everywhere. …

Liberating Palestine is now a matter of diplomacy. Even the United States now stands behind further withdrawals by Israel, through diplomacy.

Al Zahar and people like him should wake up or shut up. Stop inciting for the impossible. It is time to have the real interest of Palestinian people at heart. Most Palestinians do not wish to become martyrs. A lot of young kids want to have a future, jobs, liberty – a chance to live after years of suffocation.

Please keep your angel of death promises of blood to yourself.

Youssef M. Ibrahim, a former Middle East correspondent for The New York Times and energy editor of the Wall Street Journal, is managing director of the Dubai-based Strategic Energy Investment Group

Al-Ahram (Egypt)

This editorial, on the other hand, says the Gaza pull out is part of a scheme by Sharon to solidify the Israeli control of the West Bank.  The problem with this sort of editorial is that, even if true, it is not necessarily relevant.  Israel is a parliamentary democracy.  If the people of Israel see that disengagement brings peace, they will insist on doing it some more, and if Sharon won’t do it, Shimon Peres will.  This editorial is not about Israel, it is about Sharon.  As such, it displays a mindset where the person in power IS the country, a monarchy, or a dictatorship.  Israel is no such thing. In fact, it actually has greater power to replace its leaders than the United States, for there is really no mandatory election cycle- no confidence votes can be brought at any time.  Any editorial entirely about Sharon is an editorial that simply does not understand, or that chooses not to understand, Israel itself.

Deconstructing Disengagement

Despite the smokescreen of his face-off with Gaza’s settlers, Sharon has not changed course from his war on the Palestinians, argues Azmi Bishara

Sharon’s disengagement plan opens as follows: “The State of Israel is committed to the peace process and aspires to reach an agreed resolution of the conflict based upon the vision of US President George Bush. The State of Israel believes that it must act to improve the current situation. The State of Israel has come to the conclusion that there is currently no reliable Palestinian partner with which it can make progress in a two-sided peace process. …

Sharon’s disengagement plan is a bid to sideline the roadmap. It is an attempt to pre-empt anyone else from taking the initiative to break the “stalemate” — a product of Israeli intransigence or, otherwise put, of the non-existence of a Palestinian partner prepared to accept Israeli dictates for a permanent settlement — and compel the US, if only to improve its PR in the region following the occupation of Iraq, to pursue the roadmap as it was originally devised. …

Sharon clearly prefers a prolonged interim agreement with limited Israeli concessions to a permanent settlement with the Arabs. Like Henry Kissinger, he subscribes to the belief that a long-term “no war” solution is more realistic than permanent peace agreement. To Sharon, permanent peace is only possible not when the Arabs recognise Israel as an existing reality but when they recognise the historical right of Jews to establish that state. In other words, the Arabs are effectively required to accept Zionism and until they do concessions are only valuable to secure interim agreements and should, therefore, be handed out very parsimoniously. …

What happened since? The first Intifada dragged on and then Jordan unilaterally disengaged itself from the West Bank and Gaza. King Hussein lifted the carpet from under the Labour Party option of restoring the densely populated areas in the West Bank to Jordan. In an important article in Yediot Aharanot of 12 August 1988 and in a press conference held a week later, Sharon threw down the gauntlet to the Labour Party, challenging it to unilaterally annex to Israel those territories that would not have been handed to Jordan in a territorial compromise and to hand what was originally to be conceded to Jordan to the Palestinians instead. The territories he had earmarked for this option, which was intended to pre-empt the Palestinians from venturing one of their own on the ruins of the Jordanian option, constituted 42 per cent of the West Bank plus Gaza. If, since then, the PLO had taken the place of Jordan in the Oslo accords, this was a reality he inherited from Rabin. If he now speaks in terms of a Palestinian state instead of autonomy, his concept for Palestinian statehood differs from his concept of Palestinian autonomy only in that the former grants the Palestinians control over their domestic security and provides for a semblance of sovereignty. And, if today he is disengaging from Gaza, this, too, was an attempt to seize the initiative under new regional and international circumstances. The most salient of these are Washington’s wholehearted backing of the Likud position since 11 September, the US occupation of Iraq and the second Intifada. None of these have altered the fundamentals of Sharon’s design.

Jerusalem Post

This is less an editorial, almost a prayer, for relief from the ravages of Hurricane Katrina. It is also a prayer that the victims’ neighbors will be there to bring aid and comfort to the homeless, injured, and bereaved.  Amen.

After the Tempest

Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom is not alone in sending condolences and sympathies, on behalf of the State of Israel, to the victims of Hurricane Katrina. Our sympathies, too, are roused for all those affected.

After all, who can remain numb to the devastation that this most violent of storms has wrought, and continues to wreak, throughout the southern United States? Katrina has blown winds of unfathomable fury and poured surging waves of water that have overwhelmed New Orleans and its environs. The mammoth storm has swallowed entire city blocks, utterly destroyed countless homes and businesses, cut off electricity to vast stretches of land and sent millions of people fleeing in search of safe haven, far inland. …

Disasters have a way of bringing out the worst in some people, as the lootings and violence in the flooded streets of New Orleans has already shown. But disasters also have a way of bringing out the best in most of us, which is why the story of this hurricane can still be a hopeful one. Young men and women are struggling together to evacuate the stranded, to strengthen the levees so that they can resist Katrina’s floodwaters, and to treat those who succumb to the sweltering heat.

Once the tempest has passed, there will be other tests. Katrina’s victims will need drinking water, they will need shelter, they will even need simple compassion – in short, they will need a stronghold in the day of trouble. Let us hope their neighbors answer that call with all the goodness that God has invested in them.

The Jordan Times

Should the Iraqi parliament have dissolved on August 15, after failing to draft a constitution?  That seems to be the Shiia position, though nobody knows that here in America.  And you know something interesting?  From a legal point of view, they might be right.  If they are, Iraq should have new, and perhaps more representative elections and start the drafting all over again.  And if they are right, everything that happens from here on out has truly questionable legitimacy.  This is why I like looking at foreign papers- they give me information and points of view that simply never make it into the bland corporate American press, even on issues of great importance to Americans.

Constitution will Not Create Viable, Unified, Iraq

Iraq’s new constitution will not create a viable, unified Iraq. Indeed, if this document is approved in the referendum due to be held by Oct. 15, it could precipitate the fragmentation of Iraq.

There are three main reasons why the constitution poses a danger to the existence of Iraq. First and foremost, it has been imposed by the US as an occupying power. The document is seen by Washington as a means of creating the impression there is progress in the political process the US initiated after it toppled the Baathist regime. …

Second, the document was drawn up by separatist Kurds and Islamist Shiites with narrow ethno-sectarian agendas and no broad national vision.

The Shiites, dominated by SCIRI and Dawa, insist that Islam should be the official state religion, Islamic law must be “a fundamental source of legislation”, and “no law can be adopted which contravenes the agreed tenets of Islamic law”. Due to the third provision, civil and personal rights laid down in other sections of the constitution are limited by Islamic law as interpreted by conservative Islamic scholars….

Third, the provisions of the constitution could lead to squabbling and ultimately civil strife over Iraq’s oil resources which lie in the north and south. The document stipulates that revenues from existing depleted and damaged oil fields should be transferred to the central government and dispersed according to need. Areas deprived of revenue during the period of Baathist rule would be compensated for a fixed period. But the constitution is deliberately vague about earnings from new fields which could boost Iraq’s known reserves by 40 per cent and dramatically increase output and revenue. Both Kurds and Shiites have left vague the provision dealing with new fields because they expect to control the country’s main oil resources and benefit exclusively from their revenues. …

Opponents of Shiite-Kurdish dictation, including former secular Shiite Premier Allawi, anti-occupation Shiite radical Muqtada Sadr, religious and secular Sunni leaders, women and the heads of the country’s minorities, argue that the constitution should not be put to referendum. They say that once the Aug. 15 deadline was passed, parliament should have dissolved itself and called for new elections. They believe that new elections could produce a more representative national assembly because Sunnis, who boycotted the January poll, are prepared to participate. But since new elections would deprive the Shiite-Kurdish coalition of dominance, these parties oppose fresh elections.

This means that opponents of the constitution have to step up registration of voters for the referendum with the aim of securing the constitution’s rejection by two-thirds in three provinces. Sunnis are a clear majority in the four provinces but need the backing of Christians and Turkomen and of Sadr in Baghdad to secure the necessary two thirds. If the constitution’s opponents fail to defeat the constitution in the referendum, the Sunni-led insurgency is likely to gain fresh recruits from other communities, escalating the war of attrition in Iraq.

The Daily Star (Lebanon)

Iraq will not move forward until the people of Iraq embrace the democratic process and renounce violence.  That is the opinion in this editorial.  Of course, that is ALWAYS the point of view of the majority, but rarely the point of view of a minority in fear of the majority.  The minority can only surrender armed struggle when they can trust the majority to protect their rights and liberties.  That is the trade-off, and it has yet to happen in Iraq.

Change in Iraq Will Come from Defining the Morally Acceptable

The question seems to just keep coming back. How will the United States ever leave Iraq? Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld recently said that the insurgency could last as long as 12 years. That’s not what the Bush administration promised a world skeptical of a sea change in Iraq. …

There needs to be an ideological assault on the notion that it’s okay to kill innocent people. Bombing schools, voting booths and police stations has somehow become “socially acceptable” in certain circles in Iraq. Courageous Iraqis are taking a vested interest in reforming their country, but they are so far from enjoying reasonable security that it’s hard to imagine how things will ever change. …

If and when there is a change in the violence in Iraq, it will most definitely begin with a redefinition of what is socially and morally acceptable. …

This is exactly the message Iraq’s president, Jalal Talabani, needs to be sending: the individual is more powerful and has more credibility when he or she engages in the democratic process and respects the basic principals of humanity.

Justin H. Schair is a graduate of Hofstra University where he edited The Chronicle, the university newspaper. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with the Common Ground News Service.

Al Jazeera

This writer opines that the Gaza pull-out was a victory for Hamas and a defeat for Sharon.  It is rather long, so follow the link for details, including a description of what he believes was Sharon’s plan to assassinate all effective Palestinian leadership.  It is a fascinating point of view, particularly given the more common belief in the Arab press that the pull-out was part of Sharon’s master plan to consolidate the West Bank forever as part of Israel.

After Gaza: Hamas’ Victory?

Amid the controversy whether the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza was a victory or a catastrophe, it seems important to review the circumstances that surrounded Ariel Sharon’s pullout decision.

Actually, the circumstances had not been advantageous to the man, who came to power in 2001 as a result of Israeli desperation to stop al-Aqsa Intifada (the Palestinian uprising provoked by Sharon’s visit to al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem on 28 September 2000). …

I have no doubt that the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza was in fact a victory for the Palestinians and not a victory for the political program of Sharon.

It is true that Sharon has his own goals, which is to consolidate the settlement process in the West Bank, and it is true that the man has his strategic plan to establish a Palestinian state in Gaza, linked by three or four cantons in the West Bank.

But that is not necessarily what will happen, and those who managed to force Sharon into the Gaza withdrawal can still destroy this plan and force a similar withdrawal from the West Bank.

Yasir al-Zaatra is a Jordanian writer. The article has been translated from Arabic.

The opinions expressed here are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position or have the endorsement of Aljazeera.

Gulf Times (Qatar)

in Qatar, they are willing to ask the questions the American press dare not ask- why is New Orleans gone, and who is responsible?  Why were warning about hurricanes ignored, and money funneled elsewhere?  We, too, will have to ask these questions eventually, but in today’s climate, the chances of them getting answered remain slim.  It is truly unfortunate that the greatest press freedom and inquisitiveness now comes from Qatar, not New York or Washington D.C.

New Orleans the Victim of Negligence

The sight of a major American city gradually vanishing beneath floodwaters, while the authorities are seemingly powerless to do anything about it, has undoubtedly shocked and astonished people around the world.

The disaster will not, however, have come as a complete surprise to the people of New Orleans, the Federal Government or experts in US geography and meteorology. The only uncertainty was when catastrophe would strike. …

The question of why successive US governments ignored the likelihood of this disaster happening has been asked in the past and will be asked much more insistently in future.

The murder of 3,000 people in the New York World Trade Centre was sufficient to justify the expenditure of some $200bn in Iraq, on very dubious grounds. So why wasn’t serious action taken to protect New Orleans when it was known that up to 100,000 American lives were at risk there? Why didn’t Homeland Security include securing New Orleans? Was it because there is more political mileage in warfare than in civil defence works? …

The Peninsula (Qatar)

The Iraqi constitution, as drafted, only guarantees civil war.  Concession must be made to the Sunnis, or the process must start all over again. That, at least, is the opinion of this editorial, and perhaps the writer has a greater understanding of the situation than Fox News or the Wall Street Journal.

Last Minute Offers Needed to Win Over Iraq’s Sunnis

IS IT better for Iraq if its bitterly controversial draft constitution is approved by a national referendum? Or would the country have a greater chance of stability if the text were voted down, in the hope of writing a better one next time? …

The choice is a nasty one. Iraqis can stick to the US-scripted timetable, even though perhaps a fifth of the country appears to loathe the draft that has been so painfully stapled together. Or they can scrap the text and try to find a new version that does a better job of glueing the country together – with all the risk that they will fail, and will shatter momentum and confidence in doing so.

The best outcome would be a “third way” – that enough compromises are proferred before the referendum to make the text more acceptable to all groups than it now is. That is not impossible. But you wouldn’t put much money on it – although offering aggrieved groups money may be one of the few things that the US can still do to tilt the probabilities. …

…The worst case now is that Shi’ite and Kurds force through their constitution, without concessions, in the teeth of Sunni opposition. That could give the insurgency endless life.

The next-best case is that Sunnis organise themselves – and persuade voters to brave the violence – to defeat the constitution legitimately.

That would be nerve-racking. It would mean that Iraq would hold elections at the end of the year to pick an assembly to write a new constitution. It would start the whole process again. But it would still be acting within the legal framework laid down by the US, even if the timetable had long gone.

Yemen Times

The only remaining rationale for America’s invasion of Iraq is democracy’s power over terrorism, a questionable, but possibly valid, theory.  It might ultimately work, but only if it empowers moderates and minorities.  

Can democracy defeat terrorism?

The Bush administration provided three major rationales for going to war in Iraq. Only one remains at all credible: the need to transform the Middle East through democratization and thereby undercut support for terrorists. But does this argument really have any more basis in reality than the administration’s previous claims of an “imminent” threat from weapons of mass destruction or Saddam Hussein’s alleged support for al-Qaeda? …

Democracy, however, is more than just elections. It also requires tolerance of minorities and respect for individual rights, as well as the development of effective institutions for resolving political conflicts in divided societies. If this occurs in Iraq, it may provide some post hoc legitimization for the war.

But such an outcome remains in doubt. In the short run, the invasion of Iraq has created an intensifying insurgency and incipient civil war. The presence of foreign troops creates a stimulus for nationalist and jihadist responses. The future of Iraq, not to mention democracy there, remains uncertain at best. …

But, in the longer term, the slow, steady progress of democratization can provide a sense of hope for moderates, creating a plausible vision of a better future – the essence of soft power – that undercuts the message of hate and violence promoted by the extremists. Democratization can surely help remove some of the sources of rage that fuel terrorism, but it is only part of the solution.

Joseph S. Nye is a professor at Harvard University and author of Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2005.

What’s Next?

The United States is now nakedly exposed to contingent events for another 3.5 years, until Bush leaves office.  Mediocre Republican minds and a philosophical antipathy to government intervention underpin this situation. Intelligence and planning will not be applied to anticipate and ameliorate future diasters; we just have to sit back and absorb them.

What will be next?  My sense is a pandemic, possibly involving the much-talked-about bird flu virus or a variation.  The flu vaccination fuck-ups last winter and the general Republican hostility to science and good government point to this.

We’ve still got 3.5 years to go.

Katrina – a survey of the economic and geopolitical impact

While it is much more important today to focus on the plight of the affected populations – to evacuate those that still need it, and to help those that have lost everything, it is also becoming clearer eache day that the impact of Katrina on the economy of the USA will be major, and that its international impact will also be very real.

Below the fold:

  • oil
  • refining capacity and gasoline
  • electricity supply
  • natural gas and power prices
  • ports
  • wheat
  • other economic indicators
  • some unexpected geopolitical ramifications

Oil

From the (federal) Mineral Management Service (press release for Wednesday)

Today’s shut-in oil production is 1,371,814 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 91.45% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today’s shut-in gas production is 8.345 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 83.46% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

This thread over at the oil drum (report from an anonymous insider ) which has been featured in earlier diaries provides some scary information on the status of the offshore platforms has now been partly confirmed by the Coast Guard which confirms that at least 20 platforms are missing (out of more than 700).

The big worry is that a lot of the underwater and onshore pipelines and facilities have been damaged.

It is likely that several hundred thoudand barrels per day will be missing for a long time. In the current streched world market, this is a significant volume gone missing at the worst time (fourth quarter in traditionally the period with the highest worldwide demand for oil).

Refining capacity
From the Dept. of  Energy‘s most recent update on the situation (5 page pdf): (click on picture for bigger version)

So at least 1.8 mb/d of capacity is currently closed, and close to 3 mb/d are under “reduced runs”, so not operating at full capacity, either due to power outages, lack of access to oil from pipeline closures or other causes. Hopefully this will come back on stream fairly quickly.

The FT reports that some of the producers have already started to ration fuel:

Refiners ration oil as they assess damage

The loss of contact with personnel underlined the depth of problems facing the nine US refineries shut down in the wake of the storm that on Monday swept through America’s energy heartland, shutting down 10 per cent of US refining capacity.

Valero said one of its refineries would be down for up to two weeks. Others were unclear how long it would take to restart operations that had been flooded with several feet of water, damaged in places and lost electricity. As a result, rationing by some refiners has already begun. Chevron, the second biggest oil and gas company in the US, was the first to reveal it was rationing petrol to buyers across the south-east of the country.

The pipelines that fed those areas were closed, said Michael Barrett, Chevron spokesman. “There is no way to get product up there.” The loss of power to two big pipelines that moved products out of the area had shut them down.

Mr Barrett explained that stations that had monthly contracts with Chevron could still get petrol, but they could only take a 1/30 of their allotment per day.

Some of this may be panic or bubble-like behavior:

US refinery industry caught out by hurricane disruption

The rise in oil prices to $70 a barrel after Hurricane Katrina swept through the Gulf of Mexico has highlighted the fact that the US refinery industry is unable to handle short-term supply disruptions.

The hurricane has shut nine refineries with a combined capacity of 2m barrels per day, or about 12.5 per cent of US refining capacity. It has also shut 1.4m b/d of crude oil production, or about 90 per cent, of the US Gulf of Mexico output, and 88 per cent of the region’s natural gas.

With US refineries near capacity and the amount of oil output lost equal to the world’s spare oil production capacity, the industry is vulnerable to price spikes because there are few options to overcome a significant supply disruption.

The 33 per cent rise in US petrol futures this week to a record $2.90 a gallon, which equates to a remarkable $121.80 a barrel, was the key driver behind the oil price rally to record levels. As refiners see their petrol-making margins rise above an eye-catching $50 a barrel, traders have pushed crude oil prices higher to get a slice of the bonanza.

Electricity
The situation is dire in the region, with more than 2.2 million people without power:

(From the same Dept. of  Energy‘s update, which has more detailed information State by State and utility by utility.)

Some areas will be without power for a while, as poles are down, and equipment is under water. Crews are converging from the rest of the country to reestablsih services.

Natural gas and power prices

This has been somewhat neglected in the discussions about oil, but natural gas production has been interrupted as well (as indicated above), and this has had a bigger impact on natural gas prices than on oil prices, as shown in the graph below: prices jumped by more than 25% from an already high level.

Now this is important because natural gas prices effectively determine electricity prices, with a lag. Coal fired and nuclear plants are cheaper, but they are online pretty much all the time and the price for electricity is determined by the price for additional capacity, which comes today almost exclusively from gas-fired plants (low cost producers will get a windfall, but that’s another story).

A lot of gas-fired plants have been built in the past 15 years, and the general expectation was for gas-prices in the 2-4 $/mbtu range (that made prices similar to that of coal-fired plants). Now that gas costs 3-4 times more, power prices are set to increase by 50-100%. It won’t happen overnight, as there are long term supply contracts in place and regulated tariffs, but it will trickle through in the coming months (unless regulators block retial prices, in which case utilites will be squeezed between higher wholesale prices and lower retail prices, triggering a new Californaia-like crisis).

This is the real sleeper story for next year.

Ports

The South Louisiana Port is the largest in the Us and the 5th largest in the world and it has been impacted by hte hurricane, to an extent unclear at this point. With personnel missing, access roads made difficult, US trade for large swathes of the region could be made more difficult.

The LOOP (Lousiana Offshore Oil Port), the biggest oil import facility and the only one able to receive supertankers was shut down on Sunday and is slowly starting to reopn. But as I pointed out in diary yesterday, the port is only accessible by only one road which appears to be closed. That will make it difficult to return to normal activity, even if tankers can be downloaded and the oil sent off by pipeline, as seems to be the case already.

Wheat

One sector where the closure of the port facilities will have an impact is on wheat. This comes at the peak time for US whaet exports, and it comes in a market where poor crops in other countries have led to a smallish worldwide shortage for the year. Delays or reduction in US exports could have a major impact on prices for the commodity. and guess who the major importers are? China and the Middle East.

Economic indicators

FT
energy costs were 7 per cent of household income in 1960, 9 per cent in 1980 during the second oil crisis, and about 4 per cent last year. (…) petrol, power and natural gas prices had doubled since last summer, and were taking a larger share of household spending.

So, with today’s prices, gasoline and energy are already as expensive to US consumers that they were at the worst of the 1979-80 crisis.

Flurry of bad signals for US economy

Wall Street was unsettled yesterday by deepening investor fears over the US economy and high oil prices. These worries were starkly highlighted by a series of negative signals – the start of an inversion of the US Treasury yield curve, the biggest-ever monthly decline in an index of manufacturing activity from the Chicago area and a downward revision of US growth in the second quarter.

(…)

The Chicago purchasing managers index – a barometer of business activity in the midwest – came in at 49.2 for August, the lowest level since April 2003. The level was far below economists’ expectations of 61.5 and July’s reading of 63.5. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

(…)

“The combination of a yield curve starting to invert and high oil prices sends a strong message to investors that the US economy is set to slow,” said Anthony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak, a brokerage.

GlobalInsight provides some scenarios here. The best case sees 60-75$ oil, 2.50-3$ gasoline ans slower growth. The worst case sees 70-100$ oil, 3,50$ gasoline and zero growth for the rest of the year.

International considerations

The FT notes that :

The US has no emergency reserves of petrol while commercial reserves are near a two-year low and dwindling by the day as refiners are unable to replenish their storage tanks.

This is where Europe, the second player in this tug of war, comes into the fray. The EU stipulates that countries must also hold reserves, not only of oil but of petrol. There are 52m barrels of petrol reserves worldwide, most of them in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. But whether it is politically feasible for Europe to send the US petrol while Europe’s own prices are at record highs is unclear.

The first signs are not promising. Wolfgang Clement, Germany’s economy minister, yesterday implied the petrol shortages in the US were at least in part its own fault.

Whether the US would want to accept such aid is also far from certain.

Relations with Europe could sour on this pretty quickly. The article also notes that relations with Saudi Arabia, the other player in that game, will not be simple either.

Menawhile, Indonesia has to grapple with the consequences of its policy of subsidising gasoline for its population. At current prices, the subsidies will cost the central budget 14 billion dollars, or a third of its total spending. The Indonesian currency has seen a run agaisnt it as this is seen as unsutainable – but reducing subsidies and increasing prices threatens riots…

Altogether, the extent of the damage is not fully known, but is likely to be major, and may appear in the most unexpected places. The economic impact of the total devastation of a whole region is unknown; the impact of higher oil and gasoline prices, and later of power prices, on US consumption will be significant and could trigger the long feared bursting of the housing bubble.

THIS is what emboldens our enemies.

The (heartbreaking) spectacle of a major American city crippled, falling apart and now being virtually abandoned by the authorities is what really emboldens whatever terrorist enemies we have.  This sort of thing is what makes us vulnerable.  Looking at what is happening in New Orleans, what terrorist wouldn’t feel encouraged to mount an actual strike on a major city?  We have no National Guard — they’re over in Iraq.  We have no leadership — everyone is running around in circles, or on vacation.  If I were Osama Bin Laden (remember him?), I’d be rubbing my hands together and calling the boys over for a beer and a brainstorming session!

This needs to be shoved in the face — HARD — of anyone who dares mouth the platitudes about the war in Iraq making us safer.  An absolute and total lie, and now, a dangerous lie.

Gas, Who’s Got Gas?

Here we are getting ready to drive down from VA to the suburbs of Atlanta to do the final move-out on a house we expect to close on 9/9. Last night I read a diary on dKos by dbratl reporting on panic gas buying in Atlanta. This morning there are reports that the Gov. in NC is asking people to conserve because of shortages and that gas stations in TN are closing because they are sold out. Good Lord, folks! Is the rolling thunder of America’s interstates about to grind to a halt?!

I realize our dilemma pales in comparison to the hell Katrina survivors are going thru. So I’m certainly not asking for sympathy. Instead, I’d like this thread to be a pool of info on gas availability up and down the eastern US. Are the reports of shortages just rumor-mongering? Are there long lines where you live or does everything appear to be okay?

Bottom Line: Is there enough gas along I-85 for us to get to Atlanta and back?!