by Larry C. Johnson
Just like a doomed relationship between a wife beater and a woman knocked senseless too many times, the Kurds are discovering that they are in a bad marriage with an abusive spouse. According to various press reports Kurdish leaders, including President Talabani, have complained to Shia Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari that the coalition’s Shia parties, known as the United Alliance, are welching on promises to start work on resettling Kurds in the northern city of Kirkuk and to fairly distribute government positions between the coalition parties.
Gee whiz. The Shias promised to share and now they, by virtue of their status as the majority population in Iraq, are laying claim to their self-perceived right to rule the country as they please. It seems that the Kurds have fallen victim to the same fantasy based approach to policy and politics in Iraq that afflicts the Bush Administration.
Wait! It gets worse. Friends in the intelligence community tell me that some of the more moderate Shias are beginning to grumble because Shia groups allied with Iran are becoming more assertive. In short, Iran will do whatever it takes to ensure that it’s supporters in Iraq come out on top.
Notwithstanding the loud whistling past the graveyard of Iraqi democracy by Bush Administration offiicials and neo-con cheerleaders, the central fact is that the upcoming election to ratify the Iraqi Constitution will do nothing to solve the insurgency and civil war. In fact, regardless of the outcome on October 15, the Iraqi civil war will continue.
The reality of the civil war and the failure of the Iraqi Army to serve as a credible force for the security of the new nation trying to emerge will hit the world square between the eyes. Our senior political and military officials in the United States continued insistence on proclaiming that black is white and up is down is hurting both the American and the Iraqi peoples. We cannot keep saying the Iraqi military is getting stronger when the number of units capable of operating independently decline. We cannot keep saying we are winning the war on terrorism when the number of terrorist attacks keeps increasing and the number of jihadist terrorists expands. And, we cannot continue to describe what is going on in Iraq as the “birth of democracy.”
This kind of delusional mindset may be tolerated in the rubber rooms of psychiatric hospitals but it has no place in the White House or the Green Zone. It would appear that the Kurdish leaders are finally waking up to confront what has been the reality for almost two years–i.e., that the Shia are in a strong position to control the new Iraq and will assert their power in support of their own kind. Maybe President Talabani can talk some sense to President Bush, Secretary of State Rice, General Casey, and General Abizaid about the reality on the ground in Iraq. Until then, we’ll just have to grit our teeth as we watch the “wife beaters” run amuck while our leaders sing the praises of family harmony in Iraq. This is beyond sad, it is dangerous.
Larry C. Johnson
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So the majority run the country in the way they want. No surprise there. It also sounds democratic.
So the Shia are not helping the Kurds with their little ethnic cleansing plans. No surprise there. But we dont need to worry our military is doing a good job of providing cover while the Peshmerga purge non Kurds from towns as recently witnessed in Tal Afar.
That we would even dream that we could illegally cruise into Iraq and establish some little client regime is beyond comprehension, and whoever thought up the idea is clearly insane. That we then reelected these war criminals makes us all complicit. To think that there is any way we can salvage this whole mess is also beyond comprehension. We have created a monster that can now only be sorted out by the people inside the country, and that will probably not be pretty. However, there is no longer anything left we can do to improve matters short of immediate withdrawl and trying to learn as country from the very real horrific acts we have commited, the war crimes we have perpetuated, and the general destruction we have caused in a country guaranteeing the hatred of America and all things American for generations to come.
From my blog (link below), I wrote that the Shiites only control 54% of Parliament. Given your info, if Talabani and his people pull out, that makes the fall of the Iraqi government a likelyhood.
The quarrel, as reported by Juan Cole, is over the fate of Kirkuk. It seems that Kirkuk, whose fate is up for a vote, is up for a vote might become the next Bleeding Kansas, as both sides strive to populate Kirkuk with their people:
I think given the current feud, Kirkuk could act as a similar trigger for an Iraqi civil war. And Al-Jazeera reports that Talabani has now asked Jaafari to resign.
So, if the Iraqi government falls, I suggest the Shiites could blame the Kurds for pulling out, the Kurds could call the Shiites a bunch of liars who went back on their promises, and we could have a three-cornered civil war on our hands. We already have a two-cornered civil war between the Shiites and Sunnis. This could mean Turkish intervention if Kurdistan decides to spite the Shiites and declare independence.
The Kurds are now allied with the United States and the Shiites with Iran.
That’s what’s happening in a nutshell. The Kurds want to separate from Iraq but Turkey does not want this. Their protection from Turkey and the Shiites comes from the US. Eventually they want to the US to leave but at this moment they want them to stay.
The Shiites are working with Iran to kill American Soldiers in greater numbers. The Iraqi Army is useless to everyone and is not wanted by the Shittes or the Kurds.
You might as well start calling it Kurdistan.
Delusional pretty well sums up the neo-con mind set governing both foreign and domestic policy.
That’s an interesting analogy.
I always thought of it like the the movie The Bear. At the end of the movie there is this scene where a young bear is learning how to roar. So the cub is crossing a river, I believe, and some other wild animal larger than the little bear appears, lets say a mountain lion, so the cub is scared. So, the cub roars and the lion runs off, but what the cub doesn’t know is that it was really its mother who was behind him who scared the lion off.
I think the Kurds are like that little bear who, without that “mother bear” behind him.. may not be intimidating enough to stand up for themselves.
It’s been said before many, many times. There’s some truth to it. At least if you keep running back to the Dem party, you’ll always know your place in the world – frustrated loser.