Having cannibalized their fall sales by going all out with their incentive plans during the summer,Ford and GM are now facing the problem of collapsing sales of their new models which are heavily weighted with big SUVs and big trucks.October sales were down about 25% at each of the big two and the Japanese carmakers have now grabbed a market share close to the 50% threshold. When that magic mark is reached, it will have the same effect as the 2000th victim of Bush’s war.The era of American dominance of the automobile industry would have ended.As China and India enter these markets within the next ten years, one can expect a decent burial for these two once mighty giants.
In several of my posts here at Bootrib, I have been saying that the end of American dominance of the automobile industry should be seen as a metaphor for the decline and fall of American Imperial Enterprise as a whole.For nearly sixty years after WWII, Americans, as a people, have thought of themselves as exceptional partly because the more benighted peoples in the rest of the world lacked the jet fin styling, the automatic transmissions and backseat sex of American boys and girls.Now that those perks are becoming available everywhere,the uniqueness of the American landscape has worn thin.The death of the American auto industry may well presage the death of American cultural dominance.
That cultural death blow will carry over into the military and political arenas, IMO. When an American President becomes an object of scorn and ridicule as the current impoostor has become, the day is not far off when the cultural and political landscape will shift towards Asia, Europe and Latin America.
As our nation hurtles toward bankruptcy and China, India and Brazil become ascendant,we can expect the fate of GM and Ford to widen and capture many more.
http://tinyurl.com/8js5d Good article in NYT on the annual world auto show in Japan…and how far behind are we?…big auto companies here are buying or leasing technology from Toyota for pete’s sake.
Truly amazing how incredibly ignorant and shortsighted the American auto companies were, stupid stupid stupid…and plain old bad business sense not to have invested much more heavily in newer technology and innovations. And it’s American workers that are paying the price for the auto industry’s stupidity. Which in turn diminishes the economy and the welfare of the country as a whole as fewer and fewer manufacturing jobs are available-a vicious circle.
Metaphor or indicator, either way f’ing A right on. Some would look at this as the inevitable cycle of hegemony, but I think we all know that it didn’t have to be this way, that we had some f’ing agency and we (and the cosmetic-laden US car makers) didn’t have to choose the short-sighted gluttony of being the SUV nation. We could have had some foresight and had a President who knew WTF he was doing.
But we took the short cut. Nothing inevitable about that, just way f’ing tragic.
Good diary, BTW.
The auto industry is cyclical. First it over produces and over expands. Then the economy softens and they have some bad years. (Some might think they have the bad years and that causes the economy to soften).
Then they tighten up their operations, the economy improves and the cycle starts again.
Here is an optimistic piece from today boosting GM:
Marketwatch
Mr. Kerkorian wouldn’t have bought 10% of GM recently if he didn’t expect things to improve. This does not excuse the management from being unprepared, just that they are not totally dumb. One of the positions that GM and Ford are taking is that hybrids will not be able to capture enough of the market to be significant. The improvement in city driving is not enough to compensate for the added complexity and thus, they will remain a niche product.
I believe Ford and GM will see some further market share erosion, but they are in the process of reducing capacity, so they will be able to stem the bleeding. Kerkorian ain’t no dummy, he’s snapping up a bargain right now. GM alone accounts for 30+% of sales in the US, they’ll cut jobs, close plants, outsource more to forign countries to cut parts costs and will return to profitability in their car lines. Not a happy outcome, but acceptable.
I am not as optimistic as you are simply because the auto industry is on a secular (long term) slide.The worldwide overcapacity in automobiles is what is driving the industry.There is simply no way for GM to stem the tide in such an environment.Any cutbacks it has to make will be quickly snapped up by hungry competitors who are already well positioned to serve the market.
I think GM’s problems come not from its product mix,its legacy costs and other issues in the news now.It is now simply perceived as a dinosaur which has missed the boat in automotive technology since the 70’s.It is like an aging model whose vaunted beauty has faded and no amount of makeup or botox treatments would restore it to its old self again.After having typically missed the hybrid technology,they are now badmouthing it while Toyota and Honda have taken the risks and seem poised to steal the thunder of our automakers.What is galling to me is that they do not seem to think about the possibilities of such a technology improving to the point where it can become universally accepted by all consumers.Even as I write I see an item about some small entrepreneurs talking about plug-in hybrids that would double, triple and even quadruple the mileage of hybrid cars.
Confucius say Hubris makes you miss hybrids.
The article in Marketwatch was interesting to me for what it didn’t say. Reading about Toyota and hybrids all the talk is of technology and innovations. This article mentioned how great it was to go to 0 to 60 right away, how kinda macho the car sounds or how the new interiors are going to be great…
And the last paragraph talks about how some people can afford gas so it’s not a problem and they need bigger cars to pull their boats, horse trailers, etc…sounds like same old same old to me and most people I know do worry a lot about gas prices and mpg.
Other countries are making great strides in different fuel technologies, I think it’s Argentina where over 60% of the cars bought are now ‘flex’ cars…but here we’re basically doing nothing.
As an owner of a hybrid that helped me get rid of two gas guzzlers, I can tell you that our new hybrid is one amazing car in terms of fuel economy.It gives well over 45 MPG on the highway and 55 MPG in the city.These kinds of fuel economy numbers were not attainable in conventional cars.Also note that the fuel economy numbers are better in city driving.Which is where we burn up a great deal of gasoline and create smog.
What is exciting to me is that as the market for hybrids grows, it will make possible several major innovations not the least of them being batteries with faster charging and increased capacity making possible the use of smaller gasoline engines, true D.C. motor drives,drive by wire technologies, all of which promise to revolutionize the automobile, and yes, reduce gas consumption to the point where an oil based economy may well become a thing of the past in the next five decades.
You mentioned the importance of batteries and Toyota has quietly gained 60% interest in Panasonic and the making of batteries for hybrid cars. Also GM SOLD them their large holding in Fuji industries and that is apparently where there is a crucial dept. for making batteries for hybrid cars. Another stupid move in my opinion by an American car maker.
This is all academic to me as I do not have a car…I can no longer drive due to neuro-muscular disease but follow this simply because it just seems endemic of American companies in many areas, not just auto industry, losing ground because they don’t want to invest in research into newer developments that will be the wave of the future-and the future is almost here. Besides such short sightedness on big companies parts which in turn makes for less jobs when we can’t compete.
Flex fuels are quietly in the market, most GM cars can run on e85 or 15% ethanol blends. They’ve been doing marketing pushes around here with under $2/gal e85 at stations.
http://www.e85fuel.com/database/search.php map where you can click on each state and find the nearest flex station near you.
Cool, Thanks