2005 Campaign News & Analysis Update for 10/29/05 to 11/5/05

In This Edition: OH reform, VA, NYC, NJ, CA48, CA special election, and assorted mayoral races; polls, ads, etc. Election day is Nov 8!

Counting Down the Days

• Volunteering on Election Day
• How We Win in NJ & VA, by Penny Lee
• Governing.com has its votes to watch on Tuesday

OH

• RON update: 2 commercials, 1 GOTV plan, 5 days, by ttagaris Posted 11/3/05.
• OH GOPers not happy with Arnold butting in
• RON: By the Numbers
• OH Redistricting Reform Information: Reform Ohio Now

VA
Polls

• Released 11/4/05: Mason Dixon poll breakdowns: “Kaine leads in “vote-rich Northern” VA, 53%-37%, while Kilgore leads “ranging from” 11% to 13% “in the Shenandoah Valley, Southside and his native” SW VA. The race is even “in metropolitan Richmond, where both now live.” Kilgore leads among men, 48%-42%, and Kaine among women, 48%-41%. Kilgore leads among whites, 52%-36%, while Kaine leads among blacks, 85%-8%.”
• Rasmussen (R) poll shows Kilgore’s Hitler ads may have backfired
• Polling roundup Trends favor Kaine. GOTV!
• Kaine pulling away; Dem-Ind governing majority forming This poll may be an outlier as far as the actual numbers, but multiple polls have shown that the big mo is with Kaine. DHinMI explains why this poll isn’t the greatest.
• Released 10/30/05: WaPo poll: Kaine inches ahead; Kilgore accused of negative campaigning Poll results in graphic form and the full results here. One person’s take on it here. Like it or not, when Kaine uses his faith (which he is obviously sincere about given that he was a missionary many years ago) as a defense, voters are likely to view an attack on his faith (via the death penalty ad) as unfair.  That’s why the faith defense works.  

Campaign

• National implications for Kaine and Kilgore, by VirginiaBelle
• Fake “official Dem and Progressive’ voters guide in VA, by Hugo Estrada
• When in doubt, Kilgore attacks Immigration rhetoric.
• Kilgore flip-flops on appearing with Dubya
• Spending in 26th district House of Delegates race tops $400K
• 11/2/05 Roll Call: The governor’s race is too close to call. “Both [the Lt. Gov. and AG] races have grown heated, with recent polling suggesting that the two down-ticket Republicans have the edge. But the margins are modest, with sizable numbers of voters still undecided and much weighing on the level of turnout. The Virginia House of Delegates is, along with the New Jersey General Assembly, one of only two legislative chambers up this year. Virginia’s chamber has a 61-37 Republican majority, and while some speculate that the Democrats could gain seats for the second election in a row, the GOP will almost certainly retain control.”
• Kelly Timbrook, by akeitz Death penalty again.
• Seven days in oh-so-many-ways, by VirginiaBelle 11/1/05 update on the gov. race.
• Kaine: Balancing Politics and Faith
• Opinions on how the race is going here.
• Obama Stumps for Tim Kaine, by semiot Another diary on this visit here.
• The Raising Kaine blog has done a good job covering all the races in VA, not just the gubernatorial one. They’ve put up some substantive posts on the delegate races, as well.
• SW VA papers going for Kaine, not Kilgore A direct link to one of them: The Roanoke Times endorses Tim Kaine for governor Any Virginians know how much this will sway people?
• Kilgore jumps shark, accuses Post of GOP voter suppression, by lowkell
• WaPo’s Full Coverage of Virginia’s Elections
• VA Victory 2005
• Tim Kaine for VA Governor 05 Unaffiliated blog with a lot of great information.
• Raise Kaine for VA Gov in 2005
• Citizen Kaine Blog
• Creigh Deeds for AG in VA
• Adam Ebbin for VA House of Delegates (only openly gay member of the whole VA legislature)
• Bruce Roemmelt for VA State House of Delegates
• Greg Werkheiser for Delegate; 42 District

NJ
Polls

• Released 11/4/05: Marist Poll: Corzine 49%, Forrester 40%
• 11/2/05: Qunnipiac poll gives Corzine 12 pt. lead
• Poll summary as of 10/31/05
• Released 10/31/05: “A Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Jon Corzine (D) leading Doug Forrester (R) 51%-42% among likely voters in NJ GOV (release).”
• Released 10/31/05: Stockton College-Zogby poll: Corzine 47%, Forrester 40%

Campaign

• Money stuff via Hotline: “Records filed 11/2 show that Forrester has put up $17.5M of his own money in the race, $28.7M when the GOP primary is included. Corzine has given his camp $35M, $38.9M including the primary […] The spending by 15 previous GOV candidates in elections from ’77-’01: $51.9M. Corzine and Forrester have raised a combined $70M (Newark Star-Ledger, 11/4). The national record is $140M on the ’02 NY GOV race. The RGA is spending $600K and the DGA $1M on GOTV efforts.”
• In addition to the legislative and executive races, there are two state referenda on the ballot: Creation of office of Lieutenant Governor; Use of funds for hazardous waste cleanup for air pollution control.
• Forrester goes after Corzine’s personal life Given how late it is in the race, this will seem too choreographed. More here.
• Forrester bribes people to attend rally, by Motor City Blue LMAO.
• Conservative Daily Record endorses Jackson over Carroll for state assembly.
• Newspapers expressed disappointment in how the two have run their campaigns.  Some of the papers wished Richard Codey were running.
• Newspaper endorsements in the Gov. race
• Blue Jersey
• Corzine Connection (official)

NYC

• Ferrer’s animated ad spoofing Bloomberg gets quite a bit of press.
• Maris WNBC Poll Released 11/1: Bloomberg 62%, Ferrer31%
• Quinnipiac Univ. Poll Released 11/1: Bloomberg 59%, Ferrer 31%
• 10/30/2005: NYC Mayoral Debate thread, by Jeffrey Feldman, and the non-partisan Politicker.
• NY Observer’s The Politicker on politics in NYC

CA-48 Special Election; replacing Chris Cox (R)

• Steve Young on AAR with Al Franken, by BigDog04
• ActBlue: Donate here for Steve Young
• Steve Young for CA-48
• CA-48: Turning Orange County Blue

CA $50M Special Election

• Push polling in CA by ReThug group, by mldostert
• GOP polling expert rips Arnold’s Campaign and Conservative bloggers, by Alliance for a Better California
• Yes on 75 Ad: Take off the costumes, Find ex-gays and bigots, by Alliance for a Better California
• Yes on 73 (Parental notification) call I just got, by joel3000
• Field poll results: Arnold’s Initiatives on the ropes, by CA Pol Junkie Still, GOTV efforts are important, and there are still millions of dollars in ads that will be spent in the coming days.
• Micro-targeting the GOTV effort
• McCain appears in ads encouraging people to vote for Prop 77
• WakeupCall: “A Field poll shows that after being read a summary of the official ballot label, 51% of likely CA voters intend to vote no on Prop 77, the redistricting init, whereas 35% intend to vote yes (release).”
• Alliance for a Better California

Other

• Texas: Elections on 11/8/05: “State propositions on defining marriage as between a man and a woman, rail funding, local bond approval, bail, usury, additional members of Judicial Conduct Commission, mortgages, state land ownership and Transportation Board term limits.” (Via Hotline.)
• San Diego Mayor: Sanders 50%, Frye 48%
• King County, WA County Executive: Sims (D) 48%, Irons (R) 41%, Lange (G) 7%
• Detroit Mayor: Too close to call, by Motor City Blue Latest polls here. It’s getting closer.
• St. Paul, MN Mayor: Help say NO to DINIO Kelly, by JK Minnesota And yes to Democrat Chris Coleman.
• Excerpt from RollCall:

In Washington state, anti-taxers seem to have the edge in a bid to overturn a transportation package funded by a gasoline tax. The tax plan was strongly backed by the business community and passed with support of both parties in the legislature.
Several hot-button social issues will be on the ballot Tuesday. Texans will decide whether to add their state to the long list of those that have defined marriage as being between a man and a woman.

In Maine, voters will be asked whether a law passed by the Legislature that prohibits discrimination based on sexual orientation should be kept or repealed. The most recent survey data shows Down Easters preferring to keep the law as is, but historically, pre-election surveys about gay-related ballot measures in Maine have understated the strength of anti-gay voting on Election Day.
[…]
In the meantime, voters in both California and Washington state will face dueling health care measures. Californians will choose between two visions of prescription-drug pricing policies, one backed by activists and another by the pharmaceutical industry, while Washington residents, in a battle that has broken records for initiative spending in the state, will choose whether to back doctors or trial lawyers on the issues surrounding medical malpractice lawsuits. Paradoxically, an August poll had both Washington state measures comfortably ahead.

Washington state voters will also choose whether to outlaw smoking in indoor public places. The measure was leading in summer polling.
[…]
Meanwhile, in Cleveland, City Council President Frank Jackson, who topped incumbent Mayor Jane Campbell in an eight-way, nonpartisan primary, has the edge going into Nov. 8. In Detroit, embattled Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is badly trailing ex-Deputy Mayor Freman Hendrix.

In St. Paul, Minn., incumbent Mayor Randy Kelly trails ex-City Councilman Chris Coleman, due largely to Kelly’s endorsement of Bush last year. In San Diego, ex-Police Chief Jerry Sanders leads city councilwoman and surfer Donna Frye in a city that has chewed through several mayors in the last year.

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• LeftyBlogs: News by State
• Penndit Link Listing: Electoral Politics, Official & Unofficial Democratic Party Campaign Blogs (Donation links here)
• Penndit Link Listing: Issues, Activism, Political Info, and General Political Blogs & Websites
• DNC blog: KickingAss
• Political Calendar
• Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball
• The Cook Political Report
• Governing.com: Resource of States and Localities
• The Politicker from NY Observer
• The National Journal’s The Hotline

Cross-posted at Penndit.
Cross-posted at My Left Wing.