Good News in Iraq?

by Larry C. Johnson (bio below)

The neocons who helped bum rush the United States into war are insistent that things are actually peachy keen in Iraq. It is just that damn liberal media who keeps spreading the lies and the bad news about the place. Oh really?

Consider the following:

The strife between the Shias and the Sunnis in Iraq is escalating. A dandy piece in today’s New York Times by Sabrina Tavernise lays it out in excruciating detail.

Two and a half years after the American invasion, deep divides that have long split Iraqi society have violently burst into full view. As the hatred between Sunni Arabs and Shiites hardens and the relentless toll of bombings and assassinations grows, families are leaving their mixed towns and cities for safer areas where they will not automatically be targets. In doing so, they are creating increasingly polarized enclaves and redrawing the sectarian map of Iraq, especially in Baghdad and the belt of cities around it.

But, it is not just the “liberals” bemoaning this fact. Consider David Brooks’ op-ed piece in the same newspaper. He notes that, “And what also drives violence in Iraq is that the Shiites have responded to Sunni supremacy by turning ultrachauvinist themselves. In the vacuum of security caused by the botched American occupation, these ethnic tensions have turned into a low-grade civil war.”

The other manifestations of the civil war are quite evident. Who can forget or ignore the Ministry of Interior torture center, which is under the control of Shia officials and dedicated to the proposition that the only good Sunni is a dead Sunni. How do the Sunnis respond to this? They bomb funerals. Shia funerals, that is.

So, how does the U.S. figure in this mayhem? Well, we’re organizing and training an Army and police force comprised largely of Shia and Kurds. That is a fact. These forces in turn attack largely Sunni communities. That also is a fact. Those communities, not surprisingly, believe the United States is engaged in a deliberate policy of extermination. That is not true but it is the perceived truth. In fact, other surrounding Sunni nations such as Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia believe we have a secret plan to create this chaos as part of a broader strategy to gain control of the region for our own purposes.

We face a terrible choice. We cannot allow the purging of the Sunni to continue and have ourselves blamed as the ones directing this genocide. However, if we move to rein in the various Shia groups we will find ourselves battling Shia insurgents who so far have saved most of their wrath for the Sunnis.

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Hey, wait, it gets even better. If we are perceived as turning against the Shias we will face the monumental task of trying to protect our logistics supply line which runs south from Baghdad thru Shia communities to Kuwait. It is a vulnerability that military commanders understandably don’t want to talk about in public. Let there be no doubt that the major benefactor of the Shias, the Iranians, understand this point all too well.

The multiple threats we face in Iraq will not be solved by an election. The differences dividing the ethno religious groups in the territory of Iraq cannot be bridged by a group hug or a sit down around a conference table. We have ripped the scab off of an ancient wound and unleashed a beast that cannot be calmed through diplomacy. We do not have the force structure in place in Iraq to contain the burgeoning civil war. Instead, we are becoming pawns that each side of this ethnic quagmire will use to justify their particular agendas. The British learned the hard way in the 1920s. It remains to be seen if we are willing to learn anything from history or just destined to repeat it.

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Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson, who worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (as a Deputy Director), is a recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management. Mr. Johnson has analyzed terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC’s Nightline, NBC’s Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for publications, including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times, and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on terrorism and aviation security around the world. Further bio details.