Rummy's Flat Earth Society

by Larry C. Johnson (bio below)

As a diehard Redskins fan, I am well versed in denial. And the same can be said for our erstwhile Secretary of Defense and most of the media who cover him. Consider today’s spectacle at the Pentagon as Rumsfeld insisted repeatedly that things are going well in Iraq and only getting better. Best of all, according to Rummy, Iraqi military and police forces are growning stronger each day. He said it so it must be so.

Only one problem–he said it before. Let’s go back to October 2003 when Rummy asserted,

In less than six months we have gone from zero Iraqis providing security to their country to close to a hundred thousand Iraqis. Indeed, the progress has been so swift that … it will not be long before [Iraqi security forces] will be the largest and outnumber the U.S. forces, and it shouldn’t be too long thereafter that they will outnumber all coalition forces combined.

So, what did Mr. Rumsfeld say today?

the Iraqi army now has eight division and 33 brigade headquarters in operation, compared with none in July 2004, while the number of Iraqi army’s combat battalions has grown to 95, compared to five in August 2004.

What in the world was he talking about in 2003? …. keep reading on the flip …
A division consists of about 15,000 troops. Fifteen times 8 gives us 120,000. A battalion can be as large as 1000 men. So Rummy is claiming that there are 95,000 Iraqi combat troops as well as 120,000? But in 2003 Rummy claimed the Iraqi Army was close to 100,000. Which is it Don? Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and assume the Iraqi Army is actually closer to 120,000. Are we to believe that the US has only succeeded in recruiting an additional 20,000 soldiers for the Iraqi Army since October 2003? And the media, by and large, are either too lazy or too stupid to hold Rumsfeld accountable for these delusional moments. I guess, with the holiday parties upon us, they don’t want to get disinvited to the White House Christmas Party.

How long must we endure such delusional thinking? Remember, when Rummy made the October 2003 bold prediction the number of American dead was less than 400. Now we are closing in on 2200 and no “light” at the end of this tunnel. Just because Rummy wants a functional Iraqi Army does not make it so.

But it gets worse. Not only is Rummy off base on the number of troops actually able to operate independently, he refuses to accept the madness these troops are carrying out under the new Iraqi banner. In Rummy’s world there are no abuses by the current Iraqi Army. Yet multiple sources confirm that the Army, which is comprised primarily of Shia fighters, is targeting and murdering Sunni Iraqis. Let’s not forget that the Ministy of Interior is running, with US acquiesence, a secret detention center where more than 150 Iraqi men and children are being tortured. We’ve created a Saddam like regime without the control and order imposed by Saddam. Great!

We have not seen this level of hallucination by a Secretary of Defense and a Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff since the gory days of Vietnam, when then Secretary of Defense McNamara and MACV Commander General Westmoreland claimed the Viet Cong insurgency was drying up. The Tet offensive in January 1968 forced that little fantasy to get a taste of reality.

Fortunately, a more accurate picture of the true readiness of the Iraqi Army has been provided by James Fallows in this month’s Atlantic(subscription required). Some of the folks interviewed by Fallows noted that:

“The current situation will NEVER allow for an effective ISF [Iraqi Security Force] to be created,” a young Marine officer who will not let me use his name wrote in an e-mail after he returned from Iraq this summer. “We simply do not have enough people to train forces. If we shift personnel from security duties to training, we release newly trained ISF into ever-worsening environs.”

“A growing number of U.S. military officers in Iraq and those who have returned from the region are voicing concern that the nascent Iraqi army will fall apart if American forces are drawn down in the foreseeable future,” Elaine Grossman, of the well-connected newsletter Inside the Pentagon, reported in September.

“U.S. trainers have made a heroic effort and have achieved some success with some units,” Ahmed Hashim, of the Naval War College, told me in an e-mail. “But the Iraqi Security Forces are almost like a black hole. You put a lot in and little comes back out.”

The problem we face is that the number of so-called Iraqi troops may be growing, but they are largely Shia and identify more with their religious group than a psuedo national identity. As a result, they will be effective in killing Sunnis, insurgents and civilians alike, and the insurgency will continue and will likely escalate. Meanwhile, our troops are caught in the middle of an expanding civil war.

It is time that the American people demand a Secretary of Defense who is in touch with reality and capable of asking tough questions and hearing unpopular answers. Given Rummy’s age we can’t rule out dementia. But such a diagnosis is of little comfort to the U.S. soldiers who are being chewed up in the streets and sand of Iraq.

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Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson, who worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (as a Deputy Director), is a recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management. Mr. Johnson has analyzed terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC’s Nightline, NBC’s Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for publications, including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times, and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on terrorism and aviation security around the world. Further bio details.