Spurred on by some of the comments in my On Courage essay, I thought I’d bring a new debate to the floor. Rather than discussing the differences between urban and non-urban voters, let’s discuss the difference between white college educated voters and white non-college educated voters. And rather than offer any theory for the following stats (.pdf), I’ll let others take their shots at explaining them. I’ll only say that the stats show something going on that defies purely economic explanations. And it offers up food for a lively debate between the camp that sees Democratic salvation in economic progressivism and the camp that prefers a strategy of appealing to social conservatism.

[A]mong non-college-educated whites with $30,000-$50,000 in household income, Bush beat Kerry by 24 points (62-38); among college-educated whites at the same income level, Kerry actually managed at 49-49 tie. And among non-college-educated whites with $50,000-$75,000 in household income, Bush beat Kerry by a shocking 41 points (70-29), while leading by only 5 points (52-47) among college-educated whites at the same income level.

Conclusion: the more voters looked like hardcore members of the white working class, the less likely they were to vote for Kerry in the 2004 election. That’s a problem–a big problem–that Democrats have to take quite seriously.

For those that want a few more sources:

link
link
link

0 0 votes
Article Rating