The Democrats could learn a thing or two from the Canadian Liberal Party about how to mix it up. Talk about taking the fight to the enemy, and using his words against him! If the Dems were doing half as much now about this type of framing as the Libs are up in the snowy north, they would be a cinch to take over the Senate in 2006.
The Conservatives lead by Stephen Harper are ahead of the governing Liberals in the race to the federal election on January 23. But Martin, the Liberal leader, has learned that not thinking about an elephant works in Canada just as much as it does in the US. In the debate amongst the leaders on Monday, Martin dropped two frames on the table.
Firstly, he said he would introduce legislation to remove the federal government’s power to use the Notwithstanding clause (which allows Parliament to trash individual rights contained in the Constitution’s Charter of Rights for a period of years), and invited Harper to join him in doing so.
Secondly, he referred to Harper’s speak to neocons in 1997 where he espoused a deep commitment to neocon ideas, which generally are not shared by Canadians.
Now, the Libs are running ads which repeat these two frames. Martin is hammering away at Harper, claiming that if the Tories are elected, they will introduce legislation to cut back the abortion rights and gay marriage rights allowed under the Charter, and use the Notwithstanding clause to deny those rights.
Harper’s defense needs to be carefully parsed (almost as much as Karl Rove’s lawyer’s statements have to) – Harper is on the defensive: he says he would not introduce such legislation but his party’s leader acknowledges that a Tory backbencher might introduce such legislation. Also, the shadow minister of justice of the Tories is on record speaking to conservative groups as promising that a Tory government will take steps to reduce or block such rights. Harper is wriggling on this framing: he cannot say be will remove the government’s Notwithstanding rights, because to do so will cause trouble with his right wing neocon support. So he now claims the government needs this right in case the Supreme Court does something stupid to remove rights …
Harper’s answer to his former neocon speeches? Again, masterly weasel words, worthy of any neocon Republican: he has “evolved” since he gave those speeches; his basic beliefs are the same but he has adapted to the “realities” in the world. As if this leopard can change its spots …
What have the Libs achieved with their framing? They have opened the door and let the elephant into the room. When voters think of Harper, they will think of a hidden agenda, and of Harper’s invitation to them to believe that he is a different kind of guy, an “evolved”, kinder, more compassionate kind of conservative ….
Sound familiar? It worked for Bush, eh?
Note that not everyone on the left is in favour of Martin’s proposal. Even though I like it, some thing the Nonwithstanding clause needs to be kept on the table to protect public health care. I think that’s bunk. The sensible conservatives up here are starting to realize that even a partially privatized system would cost more and do less than a wholly public one. (Numbers for Alberta show that 23% of the population would be able to afford health care at least as good as what they have now.)
The right-wing reaction to the ads is actually kind of amusing. The right-wing blogsphere here in Canada is screaming loudly about how unfair and deceptive the ads are… Except that every single one is based off of Harper’s own words. Yes, even the one about stationing military troops in Canadian cities.
There’s a reason why the Conservatives haven’t released their platform yet. They know that the instant they do, their support evaporates.
I think a last-minute reversal is still a possibility.
Latest poll by former Tory pollster shows the move away from Harper in the key province of Ontario, since the framing took place (my extracts):
THE ELECTION
Martin’s popularity takes hit in poll
By MICHAEL DEN TANDT
Thursday, January 12, 2006 Page A1
Mr. Harper’s approval rating last fall, meanwhile, was stuck in the low-to-mid-40s. But since Dec. 20, the numbers of respondents nationwide who have an overall favourable impression of the Conservative leader has jumped to 55 per cent.
Mr. Gregg attributes this primarily to the Tories’ ideas-oriented campaign in December, which dominated news coverage in the first stage of the contest. It blunted fears that Mr. Harper has an extreme, secret agenda, he said.
During the past week, popular support for the Tories in B.C. has jumped 11 points, to 47 per cent, at the expense in roughly equal measure of the Liberals, the New Democrats and the Green Party.
On the Prairies, Tory support now stands at 59 per cent, up from 53 per cent a week ago. There, Tory gains have hurt the NDP most, with its support dropping to 12 per cent from 20 per cent. Liberal support on the Prairies has gained marginally as well, to 22 per cent from the high teens a week ago.
Ontario is the notable exception to the Tory surge. There, the Liberals continue to hold their own, with 37 per cent. Mr. Harper’s Conservatives, meanwhile, have seen their Ontario support drop in the past several days, to 36 per cent from 41 per cent.
This is typical of the traditional pattern in Canada’s most populous province, Mr. Gregg said.
The Strategic Counsel poll surveyed 1,500 people nationwide on the day of, and the day after the second and last English-language leaders debate in Montreal.
I really don’t expect any Liberal or NDP victories on the praries. Liberal policies towards them have hurt their already-bad image there. BC and the Atlantic provinces can still turn around, I think.
As for the “ideas campaign”… That’s going to be blown to bits when they release their platform. Either they’re going to kill their hard-right support, or they’re going to erase any pretense of being moderates. Some people are saying that the Conservatives might not release a platform, simply because they can’t keep all their promises.