NYT & Patrick Lang Beating the War Drums ¶ Exacerbates Fear of Iran

ELECTION RESULTS (provisional)

Seats in parliament     New   Present
United Iraqi Alliance   129    140
Kurds bloc               52     75
Ayad Allawi              25     40
Sunni bloc - others      69     20
Total seats parliament  275    275

Simple majority         138
Two-thirds majority     183 is needed for constitutional change
Present interim coalition UIA Shia and Kurds have 215 seats.

Interim Leaders See Power Fade in New Iraq Parliament
Mariam Karouny

BAGHDAD (The Scotsman) Jan. 13 — The Shiite political bloc currently holding power in Iraq will fall short of retaining its parliamentary majority once final results are published from last month’s election.

With six of 275 seats yet to be allocated, the Islamic Shiite Alliance and its present Kurdish coalition partners were also one seat shy of the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution, figures provided by sources at the Electoral Commission showed.

The other main grouping, the cross-sectarian secular Iraqi National List led by the former prime minister, Ayad Allawi (below), had 25 seats on the provisional count, 15 fewer than at present.

Final results are expected next week following a review of procedures by international observers responding to complaints of fraud by minority Sunni Arab and secular parties. No major change in the results from the 15 December vote is expected.

Sunni Arab parties have been disappointed by the results, but appear ready to take part in a coalition government.

The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which was formed by the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the Daawa party and followers of nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have 129 seats at present, nine short of a majority and 11 fewer than in the interim assembly.

The main Kurdish bloc, which rules with the Shiites, has 52 seats in the count, down from 75 at present; a fluidity in allegiances has made precise calculations of voting strength in the interim assembly difficult.

In the outgoing parliament, the Shiite Alliance and the Kurds were able to combine to produce a two-thirds’ majority of 182 seats, but that may not be possible in the new legislature, depending on the allocation of the final seats under a procedure to favour smaller parties.

The main Sunni Arab bloc, the Iraqi Accordance Front, would receive 42 seats, and another Sunni group, the National Dialogue Front, would have ten or 11 seats.

Countdown to War: Operation Free Iran – A Timeline ◊ by Steven D
Tue May 10th, 2005 at 09:35:19 AM PST

We may be less than a month away from war with Iran.  
Let me rephrase that: We are probably about to start World War Freaking III!

You may consider this particular “framing” of my concern more than a little over the top, but see what you think after reviewing the following sources (assembled with the help of Google – what else?) which roughly establish a timeline of relevant articles, stories and events that have led many observers to conclude that war with Iran is imminent …

Iraq Today :: Iron Fist Replaces Operation Restoring Rights
Sat Oct 1st, 2005 at 06:18:27 AM PST
.
TAL AFAR Oct. 1 — Sadah is a village of about 2,000 people on the banks of the Euphrates River about eight miles from the Syrian border in Iraq’s western province of Anbar. The isolated community has one main road and about 200 houses scattered over a rural area.

Two cars full of families, who fled the violence to spend the night in the desert, were hit at night killing all, including three children under the age of ten.

“Operation Iron Fist” in the town of Sadah near the Syrian border replaces the Tal Afar campagne named: “Operation Restoring Rights”.

Tal Afar, insurgents escaped before offensive by American Forces.

  MAP:
New Precision GMLRS Helps In Battle For Tal Afar -
Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System was first test-fired
outside of the U.S. earlier this summer near Tikrit, Iraq.

Diary read on …

Additional information —
● Balad 3-car bombs 85 killed & 110 wounded ¶ Tal Afar : Bomber Kills 8 ● Kabul Suicide Kills 12  
● U.S. Forces Destroy Eight Bridges over Euphrates

A Kurdistan! Minor Issue of Borders?

United Nations has a problem of self-interest of six major nations sitting with veto power on the Security Council. The injustice of wars since 1945 has not diminished, although a world conflict has been avoided. We have witnessed injustice in Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Middle East, African and South American strife. Most conflicts were influenced by the Cold War stand-off between the U.S., China and the Soviet Union.

The regional organizations of a continent: Asia, Africa, Middle East and Arab Nations have not been able to root out war or prevent genocide inside a sovereign country. I personally hope these regional organizations draw more power so they can make a difference on their continent. This, from recent conflicts, doesn’t look promising for the near future.

Posted in a diary by DuctapeFatwa Kurds begin ‘operations’ in Iran

What no one wanted but feared from the beginning of the US invasion of Iraq, unrest in the border region of Kurdish North Iraq and Turkey.

BBC News – April 15, 2005 – Turkish security forces have killed 21 members of the Kurdish paramilitary group, the PKK, in southeast Turkey, officials in the area say.

It is reported to be the biggest clash in the area since the PKK declared a unilateral truce in 1999.
Turkey’s war with the separatist PKK guerrillas in the 1980s and 1990s, left more than 30,000 people dead.

Turkey & EU reach out to Syria

The  EU has recently signed an economic partnership with Syria, despite pressure from big brother the US.

Syrian President Hails Turkish President’s Visit

Turkish Weekly ANKARA Assad said he would discuss with Sezer the role of the United States and European countries, in the region which he said resembled “the colonial era.” “We can reduce the dangers to the minimum only if we act together. The dangers are threatening all of us… They started with Iraq and have now targeted Syria … They are trying to intervene in Turkey’s internal affairs. I believe all countries in the region are under threat. All we can do is to act together…,” the Syrian president added.
 […]
On the issue of Iraq, Assad said he still feared the breakup of the country under the pressure of its feuding ethnic and religious groups. “This could pose a direct threat to Syria and Turkey…If Iraq breaks up, we will pay a very heavy bill. It is difficult even to guess what dangers we may encounter.”

Undoubtedly, an important issue on their agenda will be the Kurds in their respective countries. Syria had great difficilties last year with Kurd uprising.

Global Security – KURDISTAN MAPS

The Civil War in Iraq ◊ by BooMan
Mon Sep 26th, 2005 at 10:56:09 AM PST

When the first intifada broke out in Israel, in 1987, the Arabs used rocks, molotov cocktails, hand grenades, and rifles. In that same year the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka began a fifteen-year campaign, which employed suicide bombers.
When the second (al-Asqa) Intifada began, the Palestinians adopted the tactics of the Tamil Tigers. During the most deadly year of the Second Intifada, 2002, there were forty-two separate suicide bombings that killed 228 people.

Added my comment ::
PKK Renegade Faction of Kurds

You made a fine analysis, but I find too many news items of border incursions.
Found a source with excellent summary of Kurdistan history, written for the OSCE ::
1997 – Kurdistan: Conflicts in the OSCE Area

● Turk Covert Agents Caught in Terror Act ¶ Semdili District in South Turkey  

RECONSTRUCTION

Review of Arab Editorials

NICOSIA Jan 10, 2006 — The Jordan Times commented in its January 9 editorial on a recent local public opinion poll that showed 20 percent of Jordanians still consider Al Qaeda a legitimate resistance movement, saying these results are “deeply troubling and worrisome.”

The country’s only English-language daily said while the poll results showed a significant drop in considering Al Qaeda as a resistance group dropped from 66.8 percent in 2004 to 20 percent in December 2005, and Al Qaeda in Iraq down to 6.2 percent from 72.2 percent last year, it was still worrisome that one-fifth of Jordanians still respect this organization.

● Jordan A Police State plus Prison Torture ¶ Video Iraqi Woman