Hey, that’s not me talking. And it sure isn’t the CIA, because they believe Iran is at least ten years away from having a bomb.
No, that’s respected (ahem) conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer last week in an seemingly off the cuff comment while bemoaning the stupidity, timidity and general credulity of the European countries who, until recently, have been negotiating with Iran regarding the resumption of its nuclear program. As we now know, those talks failed to stop Iran from resuming the enrichment of its uranium supplies, an essential step in making a bomb (although Iran denies that is their intent). Check out this column of his originally published January 18, 2006 to see what I’m talking about:
Ah, success. Instead of being years away from the point of no return for an Iranian bomb, as we were before we allowed Europe to divert anti-proliferation efforts into transparently useless talks, Iran is probably just months away.
(Emphasis added)
Sounds pretty scary (and damn those cowardly Euros for letting it happen, too), doesn’t it? Iran with a bomb to play with and sooner than anyone has previously imagined.
So how did this “Pulitzer Prize winning” columnist Krauthammer get the idea Iran is only months away from a bomb? We know it can’t be from talking to sources in the CIA. So where is he getting this alarming idea that Iran is on the cusp of holding a nuclear sword of Damocles over our heads (our here meaning collectively Israel and/or our military in the Middle East)?
Specifically, who are his sources for shouting “Danger Will Robinson” with regard to Iran as loudly as his nationally syndicated column permits? This has been bugging me ever since I first came across this story. Especially with a new wave of fearmongering rising up across our country’s editorial pages, demanding we adopt a hard line approach to dealing with Iran:
When all else fails, stop Iran by force
Sanctions won’t deter rogue regime’s nuclear ambitions
When all else fails, Iran must be deterred by force.This is a nation whose president called for wiping Israel off the map; a nation that has inflicted the most heinous torture on its own people, and one that is an unashamed supporter of radical Islamic terrorism.
The free world would never be able to rest easy again if this unstable hotbed of hatred obtained a nuclear weapon.
Nothing is more horrible to contemplate at this moment than a nuclear-armed Iran.
(Cross posted at Daily Kos)
I admit I was greatly puzzled. But you know, it’s amazing what you can stumble across while pursuing generally useless Google searches. Sometimes you find something that opens a door, like this little nugget of a story from United Press International, dated January 19, 2006, which ran one day after Krauthammer’s column:
Tehran plans nuclear weapon test by March
WASHINGTON, Jan. 19 (UPI) — Tehran is planning a nuclear weapons test before the Iranian New Year on March 20, 2006 says a group opposed to the regime in Tehran.
The Foundation for Democracy citing sources in the U.S and Iran offered no further information.
An Iranian nuclear bomb test by March 20th? That’s just — well — a few months away. Just like Krauthammer said. Could this group, Freedom for Democracy in Iran, or “FDI” for short (which rhymes with FBI; gotta love those names, eh?), be the source of Krauthammer’s worrisome assertion, as well as the UPI report? And, by the way, who is this FDI, anyway?
Well a little more digging took me to this website which tells you:
The Foundation for Democracy in Iran is a private, non-profit corporation registered in the State of Maryland. Contact: Kenneth R. Timmerman, Executive Director
A group for bringing freedom to Iran based in Maryland? And headed by someone named Kenneth Timmerman? Who the heck is he? Well, he’s a guy who’s openly admitted he’s been involved with FDI since it was founded:
In 1995, along with Peter Rodman, Joshua Muravchik, and a group of Iranian patriots, he established the Foundation for Democracy in Iran (FDI). The Foundation has served as a rallying point for Iranian democrats seeking an end to brutal, clerical rule in Iran, and has helped keep Congress and the public informed of ongoing repression and support for terrorism by Iran’s “moderate” new President.
So, he and his buddies, and some unnamed Iranian “patriots” (does this sound familiar, or what?) formed FDI to lobby– er, inform Congress of the dangers of Iran’s tyrannical, clerical regime and to work for it’s overthrow. An admirable goal. But does that make FDI and Mr. Timmerman a credible source for information regarding Iran’s nuclear program?
Well, it also turns out that Mr. Timmerman is an “investigative reporter” who’s previously written articles for American Spectator (Richard Mellon Scaife creation from the Clinton wars era). To give you a sample of his investigative reporting skills, and his expertise on the Middle East and weapons of mass destruction issues, here’s an article he wrote back in 2004 regarding the search for WMD in Iraq:
Saddam’s WMD Have Been Found
By Kenneth R. TimmermanNew evidence out of Iraq suggests that the U.S. effort to track down Saddam Hussein’s missing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is having better success than is being reported. Key assertions by the intelligence community that were widely judged in the media and by critics of President George W. Bush as having been false are turning out to have been true after all. But this stunning news has received little attention from the major media, and the president’s critics continue to insist that “no weapons” have been found.
In virtually every case – chemical, biological, nuclear and ballistic missiles – the United States has found the weapons and the programs that the Iraqi dictator successfully concealed for 12 years from U.N. weapons inspectors.
Well, he sure called that one right. I remember all those stories about finding Saddam’s WMD like it was yesterday.
Mr. Timmerman has also had a bestseller, Shakedown: Exposing the Real Jesse Jackson published by that champion of conservative truthiness, Regnery Press. Another popular book of his is The French Betrayal of America, a title that speaks volumes about Mr. Timmermans point of view.
His latest treatise, however, is all about the looming crisis with Iran. It’s called (baddaBOOM!) Countdown to Crisis : The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran. Here’s what the the Washington Post’s review said about it:
Timmerman, the author of earlier books attacking France and Jesse Jackson, begins his book with the outlandish claim that Iran was complicit in the Sept. 11, 2001, atrocities. In his retelling of history, a craven CIA, determined to exonerate rogue states that sponsor terrorism, has deliberately withheld this information from the American public. The conclusions of the numerous congressional investigations and journalistic inquiries into Sept. 11 are simply ignored. The one independent examination that Timmerman does cite, the 9/11 Commission, is faulted for missing what he considers the all-too-apparent Iran link. The reader gets the impression that Timmerman would rather not bother with facts precisely because they undermine his conspiracy theory.
A persistent problem with this book is its absence of credible evidence. Timmerman frequently describes meetings between Iran’s most senior officials, complete with dialogue, facial expressions and body language — all without any attribution. […]
It behooves Timmerman to provide at least some sources for such eyebrow-raising claims; he attributes them only to “sources with direct knowledge of these meetings,” whatever that means. To the extent that the author proffers any foundation for his theories, he appears to rely on exiles with tall tales and defectors with wild imaginations. The war with Iraq, premised on its nonexistent doomsday arsenal and nonexistent working relationship with al Qaeda, has vividly demonstrated where that can lead.
You get the feeling that Mr. Timmerman just might have an agenda, one in which he makes his own reality up as he goes along. Sort of like someone else we know, isn’t it.
Now, I don’t know for a fact that UPI and Krauthammer were both getting their information regarding Iran’s imminent acquisition of the Bomb from FDI and Timmerman, but the timing sure is suspect.
Why don’t we write Mr. Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
The Washington Post
1150 15th Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20071
and ask him who his sources are, and if one of them just might be the good folks at Freedom for Democracy in Iran.
At the very least we ought to email the Post’s media critic Howard Kurtz (kurtzh@washingtonpost.com) and ask him to ask Krauthammer where he heard this “dangerous” news.
I wouldn’t bother emailing Deborah Howell, the Post’s ombudsman, however. We all know how far asking her to explain something published in the Post will get you.
Soj did an extensive post on Iran’s potential for nuclear weapons and/or unranium enrichment a little over a week ago. The upshot is, the grade of uranium you need to even BEGIN weapons research is so high, and you need so much of it, that there’s no way they have that capability — any more than Iraq did.
(You’ll have to scroll down a bit on the page to get to her Iran discussion, I couldn’t figure out the link to go right to the post.)
Cute how the phrase “from a group opposed to the regime in Tehran” is designed to imply the group in question is actually IN Iran and might have some solid knowledge… Somehow I doubt anything based in Maryland qualifies as a reputable source for this issue.
Somehow I think you’re right.
Now we know why someone leaked the CIA’s ten year estimate for Iran to get a bomb, don’t we. Someone knew this bs was coming down the pike, and that there would be willing foot soldiers like Krauthammer to push the meme down the road into another Bush catastrophe.
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Tipareste links :: Iran Mania
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Thanks. Soj as always is very informative.
For those who thought that this was how the world looked . . .
Here is the new map, updated:
IT’S GEORGELANDIA!…and don’t you forget it.
Peace
Living on the border of Illinois and Missouri — it’s tempting to move across the river to Illinois and sanity.
Last year one of the newspaper columnists had a better idea — St. Louis should secede from Missouri and join Illinois. We would be known as West East St. Louis Illinois.
I like the old map much better!
There are a number of things you can be certain about concerning “liberals” — whether in the U.S or Canada:
Not to quibble with you numediaman man, but most liberals I know are convinced that it HAS happened here.
Very good investigative effort on your part to first reveal the (retrospectively obvious)paucity of Krauthammer sourcing and to then blow the mask of concealment off FDI and the odious ideological shitbird and fraud Timmerman.
Not one to heap praise on WaPo for anything these days, I nevertheless applaud the review they wrote of Timmerman’s latest book which you quote in the diary.
Krauthammer is unquestionably one of the ugliest pieces of furniture in the archtecture of the Bush regime’s propaganda machine. The aggressive nature of his sickening pathology rivals even that of creatures like Pat Buchanan, Brit Hume and Novakula, and his disdain and contempt for the truth rivals that of bums like Limbaugh and O’Reilly and Malkin.
He is a true wingnut’s wingnut.
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Dr. Charles Krauthammer“He Tarries: Jewish Messianism and the Oslo Peace”
The Distinguished Rennert Lecture for 2002, delivered upon the awarding to Dr. Charles Krauthammer of Bar-Ilan University’s Ingeborg Rennert Center for Jerusalem Studies ‘Guardian of Zion’ Award, in Jerusalem, June 10, 2002.
Some of you may know that I used to be a psychiatrist, but I want to assure you tonight that I am a psychiatrist in remission. I haven’t had a relapse in twenty years, I have been doing very well. I am sometimes asked what is the difference between my career today as a legal observer of governments and politicians in Washington and a psychiatrist. And I tell people that in both professions, in Washington where I observe political actors, and in psychiatry where I used to work in an asylum, I see people every day who suffer from delusions of grandeur and paranoia, with the exception that today those people have access to nuclear weapons, so it makes it a little bit of a more interesting game.
I want to talk to you tonight about an important, and I think neglected, aspect of Jewish consciousness, namely Jewish Messianism. Thirty-five years ago today the Six-Day war ended. It seemed like a new era, and I remember some months afterward my rabbi questioned whether we should continue to celebrate Tisha Be’av. Jerusalem had been reunited, the Temple Mount was ours, Israel. The land had been retaken, perhaps we had entered a new age.
The cruel lesson of the last thirty-five years is that we will always have Tisha Be’av and we will always need to have Tisha Be’av.
It is true that according to Maimonides, one of the fundamental beliefs of Judaism is belief in the coming of the Messiah, but that does not mean that we have to believe in the imminent coming of the Messiah. In fact, the rabbis long discouraged the belief in the imminent coming of the Messiah as almost a form of impiety. Messianic speculation has not been good for the Jews.
… This led the rabbis to discourage Messianic speculation, and as we know, there is rabbinic injunction against hastening the end, lo lidchok et haketz, presuming by human agency to bring about what only God can. And yet, the Messianic hunger never dies, but it often goes unnoticed.
There are today at least three of these strains worth noticing. The first, and the one that has received the most attention, is the religious Messianism of the more extreme and radical elements of the Gush Emunim, and the purist culture of which, which is the Temple Mount faithful, who spend their waking hours learning Leviticus so that they will be ready to offer sacrifices in the new temple …
Pulitzer Prize 1987 – WaPo
COMMENTARY – For his witty and insightful columns on national issues.
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Sounds familiar. Flashback.
They’ve rolled out the orchestra, heavy on kettle drums. Is Charles Krauthammer playing 1st or 2nd violin. Maybe he prefers a kettle drum?
Over the weekend I read at an Israeli website (Debka-they fan the flames) that “Tehran plans a nuclear weapons test before March 20th, 2006.
Today we have Bush calling for sanctions and in Ha’aretz, one of Israel’s daily, reporting Condi saying “Time for talking with Iran is over”
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/spages/673864.html
Guess the bombing begins any day now since sanctions won’t pressure Iran.
And we’ve begun to pay for this 2nd pre-emptive war, at the pumps.
This is just Krauthammer joining up in the disinformation campaign. The Jerusalem Post did a similar claim in early December. My post then:
Iranophobia.
The disinformation campaign on Iran’s nuclear weapons reeks. I read in a number of articles Iran does have the right under the NPT to enrich unranium. Of import is the fact that Iran’s oil is expected to be depleted in 20 years.
One interesting essay that examines the issues is “The Iran-US Dispute and Military Action” by Michael Rozeff.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rozeff/rozeff62.html
The debka.com article also made an interesting point about the significance of the date March 20. It is about a week before the Israeli elections. They speculate that the Israeli voters would punish Olmert for not having launched a preemptive strike if in fact Iran conducts a nuclear test. So the real question is how much credence the Israelis give to these reports. Debka.com is touting FDI as having a strong reputation for credibility.
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with the chimp is always rewarding ::
George 'Slam Dunk' Tenet, Tommy Franks, George W.Bush and L. Paul Bremer III. Ron Edmonds - AP
Presidential Medals of Failure
Washington Post by Richard Cohen – Dec. 16, 2004
… One by one these images flicked by me, each man wearing the royal-blue velvet ribbon with the ornate medal — one failure after another, each now on the lecture circuit, telling insurance agents and other good people what really happened when they were in office, but withholding such wisdom from the American people until, for even more money, their book deals are negotiated. (Frank’s book, “American Soldier,” was already a bestseller.)
“But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.”
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Even worse, it seems Hilary gave a speech at Princeton recently and was saying bush is not doing enough to make Iran toe the line and keep us safe. She seems to become a major warhawk advocating sanctions or worse against Iran. And mentioning how we can’t have Iran threatening Israel, etc etc.
I am not surprised but I think she is going to be a clunker in the primaries, so it isn’t all bad.
the only upside here is that if they fuck up again it will kill them off for good. That includes their dem enablers.
Same song, second verse,
Sing it again just like the first.
The name of the song: Marching toward Armageddon.
I still can’t forget this nugget from Risen’s book:
Which isn’t to say that the “danger” is really any more imminent. Nor, even if Iran has a nuclear weapon, that the one, two, or handful would constitute the great threat we’re being told. Not with 200 some sitting in Israel.
Eventually, the west is going to have to accept a nuclear armed Iran, unless we (the US) really are, as a nation, crazy.
Arcturus, a Great catch.
also not just the CIA. I recall how the veil of silence fell on the discovery that Pakistan’s nuclear scientist Mr. ‘bomb’ Khan had a proliferation gig. No, no we can’t pursue him. Pakistan is now an ally.
Early in 2005, if memory serves, during an IAEA inspection at one site, the Iranian equipment was found to have traces of yellowcake. The West ran with the story as evidence of Iran’s attempt to develop nuclear weapons. IAEA later confirmed, as the Iranians had stated, the yellow cake came on the equipment imported from Pakistan.
Now isn’t that interesting. There’s so much hypocrisy here.
What we can take seriously – as Iran has warned; any pre-emptive attack by the US or Israel will be ‘a fatal mistake.’ Ya know, life is precious and I wouldn’t wanna bet my penny pot against the Iranian’s deligent work over an 18 year timeline + Mr. Khan’s little trades.
Yea, could be fatal.
And if we don’t tone down the bravado, oil could surpass $100/bbl.
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Uranium Traced to Pakistani Equipment
(Washington Post) August 23, 205 — Traces of bomb-grade uranium found two years ago in Iran came from contaminated Pakistani equipment and are not evidence of a clandestine nuclear weapons program, a group of U.S. government experts and other international scientists has determined.
“The biggest smoking gun that everyone was waving is now eliminated with these conclusions,” said a senior official who discussed the still-confidential findings on the condition of anonymity.
Scientists from the United States, France, Japan, Britain and Russia met in secret during the past nine months to pore over data collected by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to U.S. and foreign officials. Recently, the group, whose existence had not been previously reported, definitively matched samples of the highly enriched uranium — a key ingredient for a nuclear weapon — with centrifuge equipment turned over by the government of Pakistan.
Iran has long contended that the uranium traces were the result of contaminated equipment bought years ago from Pakistan. But the Bush administration had pointed to the material as evidence that Iran was making bomb-grade ingredients.
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Just how many times must we tell the world, it is not about nuclear weapons, it is about, OIL and how it is priced and sold! This is what we must get out there and say, IMHO.
Spot on. It IS all about oil, who controls it and in what currency it is priced.
That Iranian ‘March 20th, 2006 nuclear weapons test’ date is curious. I suggest the March 20th date has nuclear overhang for the US dollar – it’s called Petro-euros. March 20th is the day oil is set to be traded in euros on the Iran Oil Bourse. After Saddam was toppled, the UN Oil-for-food Program was re-instated to dollars from euros.
See one of several financial website editorials here.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2006/0116.html
and an essay just posted on “Why the West will attack Iran”
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HA24Ak01.html
Can we say the great WW 2007?
When and if they ever get it,is Iran going to use its Bomb on us?! Let’s think back a couple of decades. Didn’t we face down the other world Superpower (USSR) in a decades long clash known as the cold war. Do we believe that Iran’s Bombs will be a greater threat to us than the thousands that the USSR had at their disposal??
IF Iran would be so inclined as to attack us with THE BOMB, what would be their fate? I’m not trying to saber rattle here, merely point out that the hype about their threat is, to this observer, far from credible.
..with all his winger allies obsessed with the apocalypse to such a degree that they intend to bring it about themselves.
Nice piece.
But I gotta ask – Krauthammer won a Pulitzer?!? For what, “Shopping Lists?”
Beats me. It was back in the ’80s.
Make something up and shout it loudly to all and sundry. pretty soon it is repeated as fact. Pretty soon it is taken as fact. It works best when used against something or someone most people dont like.
Most people dont want to read technical details they just want to be told what to say and think. That is modern Amerika.
Oh and Goebbels used the technique pretty succesfully.
The first couple of rounds, just to posture and intimidate will probably fall in Iraq.
Idiots like Krauthammer won’t be happy until something or large groups of someone are destroyed completely.
Good catch and analysis Steven… William Arkin was writing about these FDI clowns a couple weeks ago.
It’s just like Kos said, take the “q” in Iraq and replace it with “n” and recycle all the scary warnings.
I sure don’t want the evidence to come in the shape of a mushroom cloud, do you? (sarcasm)
Pax
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Kenneth R. Timmerman ¶ The Iran Operation and Traitors
BooMan mentioned in his story, the nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize of John Bolton and Kenneth R. Timmerman. I thought, he must be as least as interesting as Boltin’ John: so here some links to information and his biography.
The book that will change the way Americans think about the Islamic Republic of Iran
Timmerman, an independent researcher, has written extensively on Iran’s nuclear activities for more than 20 years. His report for the Simon Wiesenthal Center in 1992 first detailed Iran’s ties to A.Q. Khan.
His most recent book, “Countdown to Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran,” was published last year.
Journalist and writer, his timely publications —
“But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.”
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