by Patrick Lang (bio below)
[O]n Thursday morning, Hamas officials said the group had won up to 75 seats — giving it a solid majority in the 132-member parliament. Officials in Fatah conceded that Hamas had won at least 70 seats, or enough to rule alone. They spoke on condition of anonymity because counting in some districts was continuing.
Palestinian pollsters were at a loss to explain the discrepancy between the exit polls and the reality. It may have been partly due to a reluctance by some voters to admit to pollsters that they were abandoning the ruling party.
Also, the errors appeared especially glaring in the district races, where smaller numbers of voters were polled. ” Yahoo News
Some estimates indicate an 80 seat majority for HAMAS. If this were not so sad a development, it would be amusing. What is “revealed” here is that in a popular democracy, voters, given a chance to vote their will in secret will do just that. I wonder how “Miss America” is going to deal with this outcome.
As in Iraq, and with regard to Iran as well, the neocons and other utopians have operated on the assumption that if empowered, Muslim and Arab voters would vote for western style secular liberals, heavily acculturated away from their own people and traditions. … continued below …
This has not happened anywhere, not in Lebanon, not in Iraq, not in Egypt, not in Iran and now most spectacularly in Palestine. Nevertheless, the “faith” of people at AEI, Heritage and in the West Wing has not been shaken and we will probably continue to seek the creation of earthly paradise through the mechanism of implementation of electoral reform. Well, good for us.
Why do the Muslims and Arabs keep voting for theocracy? Don’t kid yourself. Theocracy is what HAMAS, Hizballah, The Shia Alliance in Iraq, the MB spin-offs in Egypt and the Ahmadedinajad all really want.
I live with a very perceptive observer of the Middle East. She says that the reason we don’t “get it” about the Middle East is that we have missed the point that many people in the Middle East really do believe in God and are really more concerned with salvation (look it up) than they are with democracy.
I can hear it now! Surely that can’t be right!! Surely, these folks really want what we do; a “chicken in every pot,” an SUV parked out front of the single family dwelling and freedom from religion.
Maybe not.
Pat Lang
Col. Patrick W. Lang (Ret.), a highly decorated retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces, served as “Defense Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, South Asia and Terrorism” for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and was later the first Director of the Defense Humint Service. Col. Lang was the first Professor of the Arabic Language at the United States Military Academy at West Point. For his service in the DIA, he was awarded the “Presidential Rank of Distinguished Executive.” He is a frequent commentator on television and radio, including MSNBC’s Countdown with Keith Olbermann (interview), CNN and Wolf Blitzer’s Situation Room (interview), PBS’s Newshour, NPR’s “All Things Considered,” (interview), and more .
Personal Blog: Sic Semper Tyrannis 2005 || Bio || CV
Recommended Books || More BooTrib Posts
Novel: The Butcher’s Cleaver (download free by chapter, PDF format)
“Drinking the Kool-Aid,” Middle East Policy Council Journal, Vol. XI, Summer 2004, No. 2
The Romans were pretty sure all the ‘barbarians’ would just love to give up their culture and beliefs and embrace ‘democracy’ as well…
Plus Ça Change, Plus C’est La Même Chose…
is that elections held under occcupation are not valid.
they can always talk about how unreliable paper ballots are…
The king has spoken:
He made it very clear that the US would not deal with Hamas because it wanted to destroy Israel.
And not to be outdone, Israel’s daily Ha’aretz has a banner up with Senator Clinton’s statement “No recognition for Hamas.”
So much for democracy on the march ..when you have to face results not to your liking.
Also in his press conference, just minutes ago, Bush urged Abbas to stay in power. See how much clueless Bush is on the job. Abbas’ presidency was not affected by the elections for parliament. The two are separate. PM Qureia was the one defeated and he resigned.
Hamas’ victory does put queen Condi and king Bush in a hard place. They openly funded the Fatah campaign with some US$3 million – a probe put on hold until after the results.
A huge defeat to have an Islamist movement voted into government; of the 132 seat parliament Hamas is expected to hold 75-80 seats.
Far reaching ramifications for the Middle East. Take a deep breath. This is not a crisis. Blair and Bush, this election was demanded by you and declared by President Carter and EU to be fair, well managed.
The IRA, a terrorist movement, was admitted into government. So can Hamas. It took Fatah some time to change their platform. Oh, such short memories when it doesn’t suit.
Actually the extreme Protestants led by that racist ranter Ian Paisley (Please do not call him “Reverend” or “Dr” – be brought both titles from organisations in the US) will not work with the IRA in the power sharing Executive. Sinn Fein however were in the previous administration.
If Pat Lang wants to see a country where the law and society is dominated by an extreme relious group, all he has to do is look at Israel. Because of the electoral system, the ultra-conservative religious parties have undue influence over the governments and have done since the foundation of the state. Neither does Lang bother to remmeber that the rotting hulk of an ex Issraeli Prime Minister decaying in that hospital was previously an officer in a terror group within the Israeli Army which murdered innocent women and children.
Look for the weasel words in the statements of the Israeli government. Sespite claiming they would not directly negotiate with Fatah, they have done so intermidaries like Germany in the past.
The IDS has also systematically attacked and killed or arrested and improsoned the more moderate leadership within Fatah. There have already been reports that there are still pragmatists who are willing to explore ways forward. One suggestion is similar to that adopted by the IRA, by viewing a united Palestine embracing all three traditions as an eventual goal but accepting the two stage solution as part of a peace settlemnt for an indefinite period until the two communities come together.
That might well be an excellent solution to the demographic problem Israeli has that was explicitly stated by the interim PM this week. Israeli can only continue to exist if its borders contain a majority Jewish population. In the long term they could only sustain even the 1948 borders by convincing more and more of the Juewish diaspora to “return home” Without immigration or retrenchment, the different family sizes mean they will be outnumbered.
Or maybe, just maybe, the voters in Palestine are voting in what they perceive in their own best interests. Maybe Fatah has become so discredited by corruption that they don’t trust them. Maybe the social message and works of the Islamic parties are convincing.
I saw the photo, my reaction was like that of John Beluschi when Flounder’s photo was flashed up on the screen in the movie “Animal House.”
Why do they want theocracy Pat? Simple, first it is orderly, regulated, predictable. The call to prayer blares and bellows from the mineret at known and predictable times. The local mullah is predictable. The entire atmosphere of a theocracy is charged with hypocrisy, it is unavoidable.
A visit to Angry Arab, or Abu Aardvark will reveal that there is a battle going on within Islam like a reformation, and the best thing the US can do is get the hell out of the way and let it happen.
We may have geo-political interests, we may have economic interests, but in the religious sphere, the US will be very wise to butt out.
would have learned from Bush’s refusal to deal with their last major leader that they need to pick leadership that’s more in step with us.
Who’da thunk that a foreign population wouldn’t get with the Bush program for Democracy®?
I have to say that I have little enthusiasm for Islamist parties, but the only thing to do now is to roll up the sleeves and begin working on negotiations, aiming for a lasting peace and a viable Palestinian state alongside Israel. The people have spoken and now the two parts better deliver, provided that they accept each others right to exist. It is no use pondering over what could have been.
Still, I have my doubts over whether a Hamas lead Palestinian Authority and an Israeli government lead by hawks will be able to pull it trough, at least in the short run.
And to add: A second pre-condition must of course be that the violence between the two parties stops.
After watching corporate media spin that the Fatah Party retained control last night based on exit polls and the actual results of Hamas winning today after the actual counting of the votes; I had a huge deja vue of the 2000 and 2004 US elections. I’ve modified the observation to show the exact same insight can be applied to the USA:
The reason we don’t “get it” is that we have missed the point that many people in the USA really do believe in God and are really more concerned with salvation than they are with secular democracy.
.
See my diary —
Wed Jan 25th, 2006 at 07:40:27 AM PST
GAZA (Reuters) — The Islamic militant group Hamas swept to victory over the long-dominant Fatah faction in the Palestinian parliamentary election, a political earthquake that could bury chances for peacemaking with Israel.
The shock outcome, acknowledged by Fatah ahead of official results, would not automatically unseat President Mahmoud Abbas, who was elected last year. But he has said he might resign if unable to pursue a peace policy.
Hamas’s win could lead to further unilateral moves by Israel, following a Gaza pullout last year, to shape its final border on occupied land Palestinians want for a state. Peace talks have been stalled for five years.
Palestinian election workers begin counting ballotsat a polling station in the West Bank city of Hebron.
Loay Abu Haykel/Reuters
“But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.”
▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
since I never bought into the idea that the Cheney regime sought to encourage secular democracy in the MidEast, none of this is surprising to me.
These groups in the Middle East are little different from our own lunatic evangelical fascist leaders here in the US; nutbirds like Dobson and Brownback and Coburn and Falwell and Robertson who crave the same power as the jihadis and Islamists do, only under a different name.
All of them want to repress, punish, or annihilate any and all who don’t submit to their arbitrary, self-appointed authority and kowtow to their dogma. And just as is the case in many of the Muslim countries, so too it is true here that the government itself expresses support for the religious zealots and empowersthem with huge amunts of (taxpayer) money and allows them to skirt laws, (against discrimination, for instance), that restrict their behavior.
For me, I don’t think any of this is really about God, either the Muslim version or the zealot Christian one. I think people vote theocratic when they are afraid and when their is lots of chaos and uncertainty. They vote theocratic when their faith is shaken, not when they are secure in it’s strength. Those who advertise their faith the loudest are the one’s whose faith is least secure. Those who’s faith is strong and sure simply live according to their faith and allow the deity, (or cosmic forces or whatever), to render judgment on others.