Here is the math. The Dems have 44 Senators, plus Jim Jeffords, an independent. That is 45 votes. In order to maintain a filibuster they must keep 41 Senators in support.
Senators Tim Johnson (SD), Robert Byrd (WV), and Ben Nelson (NE), have all indicated that they will vote for Judge Alito. That puts us at 42. Senators Ken Salazar (CO) and Mary Landrieu (LA) have indicated that they will not support a filibuster. That puts us at 40. Forty is not good enough.
Unless we can change the mind of one of these Senators, or win over at least one Republican, Judge Alito will receive an up or down vote. And he will be confirmed.
There is no reason to give up. Please continue to send your letters, faxes, and to place your phone calls. But, things are looking very bleak.
Update [2006-1-26 15:54:31 by BooMan]: Via Kos, this may explain why Byrd caved in.
