by Larry C. Johnson (bio below)
There she goes again. Miss “Who Could Have Imagined an Al Qaeda Attack” Rice has struck again. Are you kidding me? Secretary of State Rice was “surprised” by the election results in Palestine? According to the New York Times:
Ms. Rice pointed out that the election results surprised just about everyone. “I don’t know anyone who wasn’t caught off guard by Hamas’s strong showing,” she said on her way to London for meetings on the Middle East, Iran and other matters. “Some say that Hamas itself was caught off guard by its strong showing.”
If she is saying that the no one at the CIA, the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research, or the Defense Intelligence Agency had a clue that something like this could happen, we should immediately dismantle the intelligence community and start over. I find it difficult to believe the system is that broken. We should learn in the coming days whether or not the intelligence analysts really did miss this.
Several informed analysts, however, got it right. Put me in that group. Here’s what I wrote in December 2005 at my own blog, No Quarter, referring to the upcoming election in Iraq:
With voting already underway in Iraq we should harbor no illusion about the ultimate outcome — the Iraqi Shias with the closest ties to Iran will secure the largest share of the votes. George Bush is right about one thing; this vote is likely to remake the face of the Middle East. Unfortunately, his vision that Iraq will become a launching pad for a new era of peace and understanding among the nations in the region is not only farfetched, but ignores what is actually taking place on the ground.
A few hundred miles to the west, the radical Muslim Brothers (spiritual kin of the Wahabis of Saudi Arabia) have secured an historic place in the Egyptian legislature. Despite intense pressure by the Mubarak government they rallied their supporters and got out the vote. At least they heeded Bush’s call for democracy. On the northern border of Iraq, in Turkey, the Islamists also are on the upswing. And let’s not forget Lebanon, where forces with close ties to Iran are consolidating power and influence. Remember, Hezbollah is no longer a rag tag band of terrorists, instead it has grown into a disciplined de facto Army of Lebanon.
We are unwilling to come to grips with a very simple truth — the majority of people in the Middle East prefer an Islamic rather than a secular government. Economic development does not ensure a steady march towards a secular, diverse society. Heavens (irony intended) just look at us. Despite our economic prowess and alleged sophistication, religious fundamentalists in our own country have succeeded in bringing great pressure to bear on our government and our media.
So, say it loud and say it proud–in future elections Islamists will prevail over secularists. Got it?
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Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson, who worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (as a Deputy Director), is a recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management. Mr. Johnson has analyzed terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC’s Nightline, NBC’s Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for publications, including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times, and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on terrorism and aviation security around the world. Further bio details.
Personal Blog: No Quarter || Bio
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They’ve screwed up absolutely everything they’ve touched. The version of democracy we’re seeing spring up will create the Pan-Islamic coalition of states bin Laden envisioned. A new Ottoman Empire.
Heck, I’m a civilian sitting in my living room and I could have predicted that Hamas would win! It doesn’t take an intelligence analyst to figure that out.
concerning the use of tax dollars to meddle in the elections of other countries?
Playing dumb works so well for her boss, why shouldn’t she try it. Condi wanted to be a star pianist but wasn’t willing to do the necessary work to achieve it – they are so perfectly matched.
She’s also said her dream job would be NFL Commissioner. Can anybody pull a few strings to get her that job?
I heard Biden say that funding for Palestinian programs like education, was denied by the Republican majority. Evidently there were several funding options that would have eased the pressure and not given Hamas so much desirability for the election.
It’s as if the cabal wanted this result…heh, you betcha…perpetual war.
That’s what happens when you put your old Soviet/Cold War people on Middle Eastern issues when they neither speak the language or (apparently) have any grasp of the history, religion and culture of the region. I’m not an intelligence expert or foreign policy specialist, and I could have predicted Hamas was going to do very well. Are they really that clueless?
Jerome a Paris goes into the details of this better than I ever could.
Funny! I was just thinking that it should come as no surprise that this level of competence should come from Ms “Oh i think being an expert in the Soviet Union would be a great career.”
And that may be just a bit unfair..but I’m not in a fair place right now !
from The Problem with Democracy:
suffers from a lack of imagination.
And while being on the subject of snark, doesn’t the old proverb state, “be careful what you wish for [democracy], you might get it.”
The irony is that democracy is messy. Often times you don’t get what you want (Allende in Chile, for example). So you either go through the old model (establishing tin pot dictators), or suffer through the growing pains of an elected government that may not be as friendly to you as you may want.