From Rumsfeld’s lips to your ears:
Iran is world’s top sponsor of terrorism: Rumsfeld
“The Iranian regime is today the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism,” Rumsfeld told an annual security conference in Munich where talk of Iran’s nuclear program was at the top of the agenda.
“The world does not want, and must work together to prevent, a nuclear Iran,” he said.
Rumsfeld spoke just before the UN’s nuclear watchdog decided to report Iran, which Washington and the
European Union fear is covertly developing atomic weapons, to the UN Security Council. Tehran says its nuclear program is peaceful.“We must continue to work together to seek a diplomatic solution to stopping the development of (Iran’s) uranium enrichment program,” Rumsfeld said.
Enrichment can make fuel for atomic power plants or weapons.
“While we oppose the actions of Iran’s regime, we stand with the Iranian people who want a peaceful democratic future. They have no desire to see the country they love isolated from the rest of the civilized world,” he said.
Sound familiar?
this country will let Israel “handle it”? I do. A few strategic missles from them — as they’ve done before to Iraq — are probably going to fall on Iran. There will be the ususal calls for death to Israel in the pan-Arab world, but little real retaliation will occur.
After all, the real issue isn’t the “terrorist nature” of Iran, rather its incipient nuclear nature.
In all honesty, many Arab nations distrust the Persian version of Islam and its Islamic leaders who find little real sympathy amongst Arabs. Additionally, those same Arabic neighbors are not comfy with the idea of an Iranian nuclear power in their midst. A hard pill they’ll be willing to swallow should we (and they?) look the other way when Israel unilaterally “takes care of business.”
My attention is more focused on the increasing likelihood of full-blown civil war in Iraq.
The first attack on Iran will come from Israel and if the Iranians do counterattack the American battle cry will be “Save Israel!” The Christian fundies and American Jews, they’ll all jump on the band wagon to send poor African-Americans and Hispanics to their deaths in the Middle East. Why do you suppose Lieberman is such a Bushco brown-noser? He knows what it’s all about…
I am NOT anti-semetic, dammit, so don’t go there. I’m just noting how the world works these days.
As long as China is interested in Iranian oil, the Iranians have an ally they can count on. To do what? Supply interesting weaponry, probably.
There is always the chance Iran will close the straits of Homuz and shut down the Persian Gulf. It is easy. It is only of question of would they choose to do it. This would finish off the US economy in short order. Israel’s collapse would follow.
Of course Europe does not want the Persian Gulf shut. What do they have to do to keep that from happening?
Good point about Lieberman.
Hey! A stray thought about those Mohammad “cartoons:” A little bit of US black ops to manoeuver Europe into the US camp.
So: Can the US con Europe into going along with another war? This is probably the foremost consideration.
Another: How long will Pakistan last? When the Pakistani puppet government goes down, a stateless Islamic bomb will be available to face down both Israel and the US.
The clock really is running out on the US strategy of force. No wonder they an so anxious for their war.
” let Israel handle it ” Is that before Rumsfeld removes 100,000 + hostages. Like our troops?
Imho, Iran holds several powerful cards and the ‘discussion’ is a long way from being ended. We’re living in interesting times before we get to the military aspects there’s this detour.
On the way to the US/EU ‘victory’ to getting the IAEA Board’s vote referring Iran to The UNSC, there’s this little under-reported big event that happened. The US, (Condi) under EU pressure acceded to Egypt’s demand to include in the resolution the following: (via Debka, full article linked below)
“that a solution to the Iranian issue would contribute to global nonproliferation efforts …and the objective of a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction, including their means of delivery” – a nuclear free zone in the Middle East.
Debka’s analysts, (no chickens), report Israel is now tied to the Iran nuclear issue and Olmert was caught unawares. Israel said this clause calling for a WMD free zone in the Middle East is unacceptable. The Security Council will now have to address Israel’s nuclear program and its long range missiles.
IMPEACH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Keeping a pipeline through Afghanistan functioning may be harder than people think. Outside of Kabul, the US has less influence than it has in Iraq, and we can’t keep Iraqi oil flowing.
This oil-pipeline plan was probably the original reason for invading Afghanistan.
There are real hints that there is less Caspian oil than originally touted. Certainly much of the oil is low quality (high sulfur, &c.)
Not really into science but just thinking logically. So, it seems to me that is oil was of a lower quality, the cost of refining it would be more expensive. And, w/an increased production cost, there would also be an increase in price that would/could be passed on to consumers. And would those increased to consumers be reflected in higher profits?
The price they can charge is set by econimic and political factors. (Until this year past, the price of oil was literally set by the Saudis, in consultation with the US Executive.)
It is not cost-plus or a standard mark-up.
A Turkish pipeline is realistic.
Afghani–no longer.
Will take your word for it. You know a lot more about this than I do!
I just don’t see a war with Iran being realist. If we do go there will certianly have to be a draft and they will half to be a great deal more persuasive now that the world.. us included, know Bush and his ilk to be liars. UNless they propose to kill 2 birds with one stone? get pull out of Iraq so we can all go invade Iran?
It boggles
oy my kingdom to be able to edit posts >)
I believe the admin. knows we are in no position to initiate hostilities with Iran. But unfortunately the incompetent bush administration thinks getting Israel to do the dirty work will shield them from the fallout. It won’t, hello conflagration, hello draft. I feel like Iranian nukes are inevitable. If N.Korea has them I don’t feel like I’m that much less secure by Iran having them. We need some perspective or are we looking for a war to try and correct the influence we’ve handed Iran in Iraq. Creating more fuckups to hide the old. Its the bush way.
I can’t believe that the general public is going to fall for this bullshit rhetoric again. Then again I won’t underestimate an apathetic public or one who is being brainwashed by MSM who report this shit as if gospel.
I have a friend who is very very progressive and yet she’s falling for the whole Iran is evil and she’s scared that Iran is going to do something dangerous..It seems as if like Iraq bushco is trying to get Iran into a corner with our threats in the hope that they do something stupid giving us a supposed excuse to bomb the crap out of them.
Since we don’t even have the troops to even make Iraq and Afghanistan secure I’m assuming Rummy is just going to blast Iran into oblivion?..then what?
Remember Haliburton’s contracts? Bet there will be a few more. It’s all about money.
Consider:
Followed by:
US will destroy any oil-rich nation that changes to euro…here we go, again.
Duh! I remember seeing that one before. Thanks!
Chocolate: About your first line..I don’t believe the general public… I thought the same thing about the NSA spying revelations. This is GW’s Waterloo. The country won’t stand for this! Now, here we are two months after his “confession”, and about 50% of Mericans could give a sh-t, apparently. I hope your line is right, we shouldn’t fall for it again, but the fear card will be played with predictable effect again, I believe. I know, I am preaching to the choir, just agreeing with you.
Two quotes for you, the first by Siddharth Varadarajan in the February 01, 2006 edition of The Hindu:
& this from an interview with War Made Easy author, Norman Solomon:
Bush and the boys spout off about ran this Iran that. The fawning MSM repeat it all as if it is fact (having really learned from last time!) and the terrified populace buys it all. That is the way it works. In general, we probably now have the worlds worst media and the worlds stupidest population as well as the worlds most corrupt lying regime.
I firmly believe that cheney and his neoconswill stop at nothing to instigate violent conflict with Iran asa key part of theircontinuing effort to establish a state of permanent war throughout the entire region for the forseeable future.
I can only hope that the Israeli electorate will be smart enough to realize they cannot allow Netanyahu to gain control of the Israeli government and launch thefirst attack. If Netanyahu can be ytopped then there’s a chance the Neocons in the US can be heldin abeyance. If Netanyahu gets in, the wider catastrophe is almost certain.
This could not be a single sortie like the Iraqi reactor mission. It would take many sorties, with high success rates.
The Iraq mission had the advantage of surprise. In contrast, this Iran thing has been totally public for months.
The wing of fighters was able to disguise itself as a commercial flight for part of its journey, and this was crucial to maintaining the surprise necessary for its success. I don’t expect the Iranians to fall for a similar ruse. And not dozens of times either.
Can the US knock out all Iranian radar? I don’t know, but I tend to doubt it. But if you don’t do that, you are flying openly right into anti-aircraft measures–you’ll take casualties.
All of which argues agains the sanity of a strike, and the chance of it working. Has the Israeli military–like the American–moved out to lala land?
terror or horror to it for Israelis that we Americans experience facing it. The death camps weren’t so long ago that these people can’t feel that hot stinking breath on the backs of their necks and I don’t care what anybody thinks, Israel is not and will not allow one of these extremist nations it shares space with to become armed with nuclear weapons. I also think that man for man there still isn’t anything as dangerous as Israeli forces fighting for their people.
“I also think that man for man there still isn’t anything as dangerous as Israeli forces fighting for their people.”
They inverted the kill ratio convincing the Israelis to leave Lebanon.
them leaving “Palestine” though. Suicide bombers don’t have anything to do with how or why Israel will or won’t succeed in taking out Iran’s nuclear program. Whatever risks Israeli commandos on the ground and their fighters in air are going to take I can already tell you that those guys are prepared to die doing it and their population is prepared to lose them doing it and that is a kind of dying for their country that hasn’t happened for this one for the past two wars we have been in.
Just pointing out how the military and political leadership were not willing to take the casualties in Lebanon when the kill ratio was inverted over a fairly long period. Quite sensible to as there are a lot more Arabs than Israelis. Hezb’Allah were actually fighting to drive Israeli troops out of Lebanon not for th freedom of Palestine.
But casualties or no, they do not have the means to take out the sites. Once they have launched an attack and failed, they will then be in an open shooting-war. This will not work to their advantage.
for engaging fighters, they have been working on that though and have placed orders for new missile systems that they will be receiving this spring (25 total I believe), Israel has made statements that they intend to hit Iran before those systems are installed and functioning. The missile systems they really want that will make Israel unable to take them out ever they are in negotiations for, but I haven’t seen it reported yet that they have secured purchase of those weapons systems. Iran is loosely protected and working adequate radar systems are fairly loose too except around Tehran. There is an estimated 18 sites or so that are known or are suspected of being part of their nuclear program, some of those sites have been hardened. Most military people I know think that Israel will be unable to take out their entire program and will only stir up a hornets nest. I think that there is little that can be done to prevent Israel from making the attempt though.
I agree with you that any sort of assault on Iran, whether by Israeli force or US force, is extremely problematic as far as liklihood of sucess is concerned. The capability of the Israeli air forces alone to mount a successful first strike attack on multiple targets in Iran is virtually zero, and as to what would follow such an attempt, well the rational mind boggles. Similarly, for the US to actually succeed in “taking out” Iran’s nuclear capability, (to the extent that such exists) is doubtful too, for different reasons.
Tragically, however, (in my opinion at least), Cheney & Co, (and to a certain extent even their sick soulmate Netanyahu), don’t really care all that much about whether they destroy Iran’s nuke programs or not. Their main concern is to keep the war going and growing. to that end they can claim victories whenever they want inthe press just like they do with Iraq, while simultaneously using the existence of continuing violence to justify their agenda for even more militaristic aggression.
I would even go so far as to suggest that there are key players at the very top of the neocon-led foreign policy pyramid in the US who would welcome a low-level nuclear “dirty-bomb” attack by a “Middle Eastern” group in order to even further bolster their own insane agenda for obliterating all resistance in the region and moving in themselves to assume complete control of all the energy resources there.
Nothing would surprise me as to what the Cheney crowd are capable of. there’s no atrocity I can’t imagine them doing if it would advance their cause.
It is mindlessly cruel.
We are looking at a policy that will either succeed in the short-term and then fail, or fail outright.
The results of the war being prepared would be very, very ugly. The US will not be spared.
Published reports (no link, sorry) have it that the USAF can attach Air-to-Surface missiles to remote controlled drones that can fly at 70,000+ feet. The drones are small enough to be below the resolution capablity of land based radar and fly high enough to be immune from aircraft launched missiles. Assuming the on-board aircraft radar could lock — which I doubt.
Lasar targeting systems might be able to target the drones if they could find one – the sky is a pretty big place to look – but even then I don’t know of any earth based weapons system that could knock a drone out. A space based weapons system could do it, perhaps, but those are outside of my ken.
The major problem the “Bomb’s Away, Boy’s!” (aka – the USAF) are missing is the ease of construction of sub-critical fizzle bombs: think Chernobyl-on-Purpose. The components of these weapons are easily hidden in many different locations such that the entire country would have to be bombed into oblivion to degrade Iran’s ability to manufacture them and even so wouldn’t foreclose their ability to make ’em. Pop a couple of these in the Saudi oilfields and watch the West fall apart.
Netenyahu tends to blow his mouth off, but he governs no different that Sharon. He would be an improvement because he is Kadima unmasked. Kadima has the same views as Netenyahu but they use orwellian language to claim it is the peace process, or that they are working for two states. They will just call the cantons they will stick Palestinians in a state. Give me an honest right winger any day.
Never happen in terms of major US involvement beyond the projection of air power and materiel support.
If anything, it will be, as some have posited, a war by proxy with Israel being the primary aggressor.
Iran is not Iraq. They have not suffered under decades of sanctions and no-fly zones. They have a formidable military with an impressive arsenal of weapons and are quite capable of wreaking havoc on the world’s economy by massively disrupting the supply of oil by closing the Straits of Hormuz while inflicting heavy damage on the US Fleet in the Persian Gulf. See Sunburn for a hint of what may be in store.
The BushCo™ administration knows, whether they admit it or not, that this is suicide. A draft would be required and the public, the majority of which already do not support the existing debacle, will no longer tolerate the abuses being heaped upon it. In other words, a Draft would be the final straw. Massive electoral losses, probable impeachment and/or War Crimes Proceedings and a generations’ work down the chute. Either that or suspend the constitution and declare martial law…which I am sure has been discussed.
Sleep well
Peace
Iran is 5x the size of Iraq: – Germany and France combined with a population of 70 million . Any attack would take ALL Middle East oil off the market ruining the economy worldwide. China, Japan and India would not be pleased. Also China, India, Japan holds our debt.
Can you see $20/gal for gas if you can find it?- $262, bbl oil that’s what some smart money people are saying we can expect?
Israel is not in a position to attack. They need to overfly Jordan, Iraq, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia. Can you see the Shias in Iraq sitting on their hands?
Can you say we handed Iraq as an ally to Iran in this fight?
The first cakewalk didn’t go too well. “We’re still staying the course” Imho, we’ll have a coup here at home – the military will be vocal this time around.
So sanctions then. In that part of the world, who honors sanctions? Does the US not have sanctions in place against Iran and did this stop Halliburton’s overseas subsidaries?
Under US sanctions Iran has done very well with the rest of the world. US the loser, losing out to China and Russia on developing natural gas and oil reserves. Don’t expect China, India and Russia to step back this round.
or coup in Venezuela. I have searched long and hard and high and low and we don’t have the troops. We have a public that already knows it was led astray about Iraq so they won’t be allowing their boys to be drafted either. We could bomb Iran but according to those who are in the know that would most likely take everything we have in stock and guess what girls and boys…….we are out of money. Iran, Hugo, North Korea…….just get ready everybody because we are going to be hearing a new name and new reasons to be afraid, very very afraid, every single day until November. Stop playing their game cuz there ain’t gonna be no stinkin wars, this is all about who can keep America safe in these very very dangerous times. All we have are all these fucking wussie weenies up on the hill for Dems and nobody is going to hand them the reins to anything now that the world has become so horribly unsafe and mostly extremely dangerous! They couldn’t even stand up to a Supreme Court Nomination from hell……..what are they going to do when someone like Osama shows up on their doorstep? Probably serve him tea?!
until 2007 when Libby goes to trial because they are all going to be too busy being afraid for their lives again!
brought to you by a totally incompetent government. One that can’t even spell diplomacy. And we did SO WELL in Iraq, didn’t we Brownie?
If there is any attack on Iran by either the US or Israel, we will see a lot more US troops being killed and maimed in Iraq as the Shia population turns on us.