Hundreds of thousands of flag-waving Lebanese packed Martyrs square in central Beirut last week to mark the anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The scene was very reminiscent of the amazing display of ultra nationalistic protests against Syria’s grip over Lebanese society.  The awe inspiring massive political mobilization united Muslim, Druze and Christian Lebanese that had been at war with each other for nearly fifteen-years.  However, the aftermath has not been pretty.  Political assassinations have occurred on numerous occasions and party politics seem to be being shaped along the lines of ones religions sect rather than ideals.
Moustafa Bayoumi, a professor at Brooklyn College, has written an amazing piece in this months Brooklyn Rail displaying the actually on the ground remarkably. Bayoumi begins the piece by juxtaposing the scene of Martyrs Square during a recent visit to Beirut, to the protests that occurred in the aftermath of the Hariri assassination.

The Christmas season was drab and lifeless this year in Beirut. Bombings continue to plague the city, fifteen in the last fifteen months, with the December 12th assassination of the anti-Syrian journalist and politician Gebran Tueni the most recent. The violence has spooked the population into caution and political pessimism. Downtown Beirut, beautifully reconstructed and lit like a romantic movie set, was largely abandoned. The few people milling about looked as if they were extras or well-dressed stagehands. Nearby Martyrs’ Square–former site of massive political action–was vacant. And the commercial district of Hamra saw disappointingly slow sales. Retailers jawed to the local press about the lack of business, and post-season specials, usually reserved for February, popped up in December. It was, in the words of one local friend, as if Christmas had been cancelled.

Ten months earlier the scene was completely different. Days after the February 14th assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, hundreds of youth pitched a rushed camp in Martyrs’ Square to force the Syrian’s out of their country. It was an inspiring demonstration of spontaneous political mobilization, sending the country into optimistic upheaval. On March 8, Hizbullah, recasting itself as a fully Lebanese political party, organized a massive demonstration to “thank” Syria, its patron (with Iran), for the sacrifices it made to Lebanon. On March 14th, the opposition responded with an even larger show of force. Well over a million people flooded downtown, waving Lebanese flags in uncommon unity. Since that day, the opposition movement has redubbed itself “the March 14th Forces.”

Bayoumi, then goes on to describe how in fact Lebanese society has lost so much hope after being so united.

Still the changes are significant. After 29 years and under extraordinary international pressure, Syrian forces finally departed the country. In May, former army general Michel Aoun, forced into exile by Syria fifteen years ago, returned to Lebanon from France and resumed stewardship of his Free Patriotic Movement……..In July, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea was released from jail after eleven years in prison, and he too retook his leadership post. Geagea and Aoun, both Maronite Christians, fought against in each other the final battle of the civil war. Now they were back leading constituencies as politicians.  Elections were also held in May and June where strange alliance developed. (Aoun, for example, had allied himself with politicians loyal to pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile Lahoud.) A 2000 election law that gerrymandered the geography of the country to favor pro-Syrian candidates was left in place. But in the end, the anti-Syrian parties, led by Hariri’s bloc, won a slight majority of seats. Occasional Shiite rivals Hizbullah and Amal joined forces and enlarged their gains. Hizbullah now has fourteen seats in the parliament, and the Shi’ite parties together have five deputies in the twenty-four-member cabinet. A “quadruple alliance” has also since emerged, made up of Hizbullah, Amal, the Future Movement (Hariri’s Sunni Muslim party), and Jumblatt’s Progressive Social Party (which caters to the Druzes). The quartet has since been faltering, and Christian politicians complain that they are being marginalized.

Although scare, the political drama unfolding is not weighing down on Lebanese society as strongly as the political assassinations that have been occurring most notably the assassination of a prominent Lebanese anti-Syrian journalist and lawmaker, Gibran Tueni who headed the newspaper an-Nahar.  In addition to Tueni the respect journalist Samir Kasssir and Communist party leader George Hawi, who were both critical of Syrian influence in Lebanon, were assassinated.

Bayouini goes on to tell of a conversation that he had with a young student regarding the reoccurrence of political stalemate and sectarianism.

What all of this has produced is not only political stalemate but also a climate full of depression and strain. I felt it when I sat for an afternoon in Starbucks, drinking lattes with Rana, a 29-year-old graduate student writing a penetrating thesis on Edward Said. She complained about how the politicians’ “own individual interests rest on their sectarian identities. How’s that going to change?!” she asked me rhetorically. Rana is affiliated with the Democratic Left movement, which uses Starbucks as an unofficial meeting ground (the irony is lost on no one), but the party has since been sidelined with the resurgence in sectarianism. “The Democratic Left was a meeting ground between the different factions, bringing them all together,” she said cheerlessly. She labeled the current situation a “cold civil war,” adding that “there’s an awareness that we don’t want to go back to the past, but there’s no translation of that on the ground.”

While a full-fledged civil war is far off, what’s more remarkable to me is how many people refuse to rule it out categorically. Traumatic memories of the past war (what Lebanese commonly refer to simply as al-ahdas or “the events”) are still very much alive, but so are many of the major players. Instead of leading militias, they now rule the political parties, and they have walked them right into an impasse. What is likely is that politics here will continue to be stalemated until Syria’s fate becomes clearer. That could take months or it could take years. Meanwhile Syria still exerts its influence through certain quarters and the United States uses the situation in Lebanon to leverage its pressure on Syria for greater American designs on the region. Lebanon’s future is once again mortgaged to outsiders.

Bayouwni, then ends the piece with a trip back to Martyrs square and discussion with a member of the military.

On Christmas Day, I went back to Martyrs’ square where a new tent had just been hoisted but this time by the March 14th Forces and not by the youth. Two days earlier Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamade, who had narrowly escaped the first of assassination attempt in October 2004, had come to address a small assembly. The tent is open to the public, but on Christmas, the Virgin Megastore had more foot traffic. Down the street is the headquarters of Gebran Tueni’s newspaper, an-Nahar. A massive, wall-sized poster of Tueni drapes the front of the large, white building. As I milled about the tent’s environs, a soldier invited me in.

Inside were various banners demanding Lebanese independence. (“Until when?” read one.) A black cage stood in the corner, wrapped with pleas for the release of Lebanese who have gone missing and are believed to be in Syrian jails. (There are an estimated 600 Lebanese still in Syrian custody). Beside the staged prison cell was a Christmas tree twinkling with yuletide balls, each with a face of an assassinated figure on it. Hariri’s was closest to the top. The soldier pointed this out to me, and we began talking.

His name is Salam. He’s twenty-five years old, clean-cut, and a meaningful counterpoint to the youth I met nine months ago on exactly the same grounds. Having completed his conscripted military service, Salam studied and became a hairdresser in his village in the mountains. For two years he practiced his craft, but after suffering a minor accident and not having any health insurance, he gave up the scissors for the rifle.

The decision was easy, he said, and it points to the disaffection of many of Lebanon’s young people. A soldier, he told me, makes about $400 a month with insurance. As a hairdresser, he made about $350 a month and was uninsured. He used to work six and sometimes seven days a week cutting hair, he says. Now, it’s two days on and two days off. “Not bad,” he nodded.

We exited the tent and talked about Lebanon’s sectarian tensions, which occasionally flare in the military. Salam said he’s lucky. His best friend in the service is Sunni and life is copasetic with his fellow soldiers. He started telling me how he loves basketball and is the best player in the Chouf. The problem is that he can’t find a team. Joining Beirut’s leading team is out. It’s Christian and he’s not. The players on the second best team are all Sunni Muslims. Salam is Druze. “Jumblatt,” he said with a shrug, “doesn’t like basketball.”

Eventually, I posed the question. “Will there be war?” He looked away, beyond the Virgin Megastore to an-Nahar’s offices. On the huge poster hanging there, Tueni is smiling hopefully, arm extended in a wave and a Lebanese flag slung around his neck. “Maybe,” Salam said, stepping on his cigarette with his boot. Maybe.

So what is the future for Lebanon? Will it fall back into a sectarian civil war?  Optimists point to Lebanon successfully having its first democratic parliamentary election.  However, others will point out that the natural religious divide will never allow for a peaceful democratic society in Lebanon.  I personally believe in the latter and only see it to be a perpetual cycle of violence and civil war. Even if you disagree with my take, you have to agree that the main stream media has forgotten about Lebanon and if you asked the common person right now what they felt was going on in Lebanon they would probably respond democracy, which is definely not the case  

Cross Posted at  The Middle Eastern Dilemma

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