Update [2006-2-23 11:26:52 by Steven D]: Death toll now at least 110 people:
The hardline Sunni Clerical Association of Muslim Scholars said 168 Sunni mosques had been attacked, 10 imams killed and 15 abducted since the shrine attack. The Interior Ministry said it could only confirm figures for Baghdad, where 90 mosques were attacked in Baghdad, one cleric was killed, and one abducted.
Officials said at least 110 people had been killed across the country in violence believed triggered by the mosque attack.
Three journalists working for Al-Arabiya television were found dead in Samarra, the site of Wednesday’s Askariya mosque attack. Al-Arabiya is viewed in Iraq as favoring the United States.
Second Update [2006-2-23 12:24:8 by Steven D]: Australian Broadcast Corp. now places the death toll at 130. In addition, The Seattle Times is reporting that four US soldiers from the 101st Airborne have been killed by an explosive device north of Baghdad.
Third Update [2006-2-23 12:52:46 by Steven D]: Wapo says number of American deaths now up to seven.
**********************************
While President Bush and his seemingly unfathomable desire to turn over our ports to a dubious company controlled by the royal family of the United Arab Emirates dominates the American political and media landscape, sectarian killings continue to rise in Iraq following the destruction of the Askari mosque, a Shi’a shrine, yesterday in Samarra. Here’s the latest from Reuters:
Police and military sources tallied at least 78 deaths, mostly of Sunnis, in the two biggest cities Baghdad and Basra in the 24 hours since the Samarra attack. Dozens of Sunni mosques have been attacked and several burned to the ground. […]
A bomb blasted an Iraqi army foot patrol in a market in the religiously divided city of Baquba, killing 16 people, including eight civilians, and wounding 21.
It was not clear if the total of 53 deaths in Baghdad included over 40 bodies found at a nearby village which has seen previous attacks on Sunnis by Shi’ite militias. Nor was it clear if the Basra death toll of 25 included up to 11 Sunni rebel suspects hauled from a prison overnight by men in police uniform and left shot dead around the mainly Shi’ite southern city.
The killings happening so fast they can’t keep track of them. Oh, and those negotiations to allow more Sunni representation in a “national unity” government? Also dead:
The main Sunni political group pulled out of U.S.-sponsored talks on joining a national unity government, blaming the ruling Shi’ite Islamists for attacks on Sunni mosques and dozens of killings since Wednesday’s suspected al Qaeda bomb attack that destroyed the Shi’ites’ Golden Mosque in Samarra.
The main Sunni religious authority made an extraordinary public criticism of the Shi’ites’ most revered clerical leader, accusing him of fuelling the violence by calling for protests.
President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, pressed ahead despite the Sunni boycott with a meeting of political leaders that he had called to avert a descent toward a “devastating civil war”. His office could not say who was present at the talks.
So who is to blame for the attack of the Askari mosque? Well, Reuters’ claims it was “Al Queda terrorists”, but unfortunately their story has nothing substantive to support that claim, other than this statement by (who else) our Lady of Condoleeza:
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is visiting the Middle East, echoed calls from President George W. Bush and the United Nations for Iraqis to pull together and not be pushed into sectarian strife by a bloodless but highly symbolic attack blamed on al Qaeda’s leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
“The only people that want a civil war in Iraq are the terrorists like Zarqawi,” she told reporters. “The Iraqi people are working under extremely difficult circumstances to bridge sectarian differences.”
Nice work Condi. Best to lay the groundwork for blaming Zarqawi now, before any facts come along which might muddy the water. I’m not saying it couldn’t be Al Zarqawi, but he seems to be an all too familiar scapegoat for Bush and Co. whenever (ahem — euphemism alert) STUFF hits the fan in Iraq. Why is that I wonder? Oh yes, maybe because it supports their storyline that we’re fighting THEM over there so we don’t have to fight THEM over here. A storyline they continue to push no matter how ludicrous and obscene it has become.
Of course, it’s so useful to have a scapegoat when bad things happen. Unfortunately, certain other governments, also run by religious extremists, seem to think we are the most convenient party to pin this latest fiasco on:
Tehran, Iran, Feb. 22 – Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed the “intelligence agencies of the occupiers of Iraq and the Zionists” on Wednesday for carrying out the bomb attack on the holy Shiite Muslim shrine in the Iraqi city of Samarra. […]
. . . He was referring to the United States, Britain and Israel, the three governments that the Iranian theocracy regularly blames for the bombings in Iraq.
Iranian-backed Shiite clerics in Iraq and Lebanon repeated Khamenei’s charges that the United States was behind the attacks. Abdul-Aziz Hakim, the Iranian-backed leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, blamed the United States for the bombing.
Khamenei called the bombing “another stain in the black record of the occupiers of Iraq”.
Yes, folks, even though this is pure propaganda in my opinion, it will be taken seriously by a large number of Shi’ites in Iraq. And in one sense, Khamenei is right. It was Bush’s misguided invasion of Iraq which set these forces in motion. Now years of repressed sectarian hatred are coming to the fore, much as happened in the former Yugoslavia, except this time it wasn’t the death of a dictator that caused it, but our own incompetent war-mongering President. In that sense, his administration does deserve the blame for what has happened in Samarra Wednesday, for it all flows directly from Bush’s monumental mistake to invade Iraq in the first place.
Most of us have been warning that this would be the inevitable result of Bush’s folly. Our invasion and occupation of Iraq was bound to lead to this result sooner or later. Indeed, I’ve long claimed that civil war had already broken out, though at a lower level of violence than we are seeing today.
What the Samarra attack insures is that Bush can’t pull out our forces (or pull them back to their secure bases) and still claim victory. There are too many sides in this war that don’t want a peaceful resolution just yet. From the foreign jihadists there (led by Zarqawi or not) to the Mehdi Army of Muqtada al Sadr, from the Iranian government to the indigenous Sunni insurgents, there are simply to many parties who have little to gain from peace, and much to gain from chaos. To have ever believed that Iraq would turn out otherwise was the height of ignorance, foolishness and arrogance.
Not that this should surprise those of us who’ve been paying attention. After all, the life of George W. Bush is the epitome of those very same qualities. Too bad for us so many of our fellow Americans were willing to suspend their disbelief when they entered the voting booths in 2000 and 2004. Now all of us will be paying the price for decades to come.
Cross posted at Daily Kos.
Tactic?
Keep it on a boil so that NOBODY can mount an effective opposition to the west.
First example?
Israel in the post-W.W. II period.
The west’s attack dog in the area.
AG
Actually Arthur, I’m of the opinion that the US forces had nothing to do with Samarra, if only because it will only complicate matters when they want to attack Iran.
I think the US had everything to do with it. We’ve seen this kind of shit all too many times so why don’t we recognize it. It’s pure Rove. The days after Bush, Blair & Co loudly have starting to warn about the Iraqi goverment not taking a sectarian position what happens?
The Big One goes off. How convenient.
And now little Lieza comes out pointing fingers. Sure we are to beleive the US hadn’t a hand in this. It’s all so transparent. And just to marginalize the Iranian position further we get to hear that oh yes they regularly blame the US. Nothing new to see here. Move along.
Me, for one, I guess this was a US poke at Iran.
But as the occupying forces, smack in the middle of a hornets nest, a clan feud, we’ll be blamed. We did the poking. And maybe we’re being signaled the type of hell hole, volcanic eruption to ensue if Iran is attacked.
Patrick Coburn, writing for The Independent (UK) has this sobering analysis. Iraqi Shias’, notwithstanding having won the December 15 election, are deeply suspicious of the U.S. attempts to keep them out of power. Also, one has to watch Mr. Al-Sadr and his Iranian alliance. He’s a rising power broker.
On our side, we need to recognize what others, like Congressman Murtha, have been telling us for sometime now. It’s now a civil war. Time to redeploy.
“US forces had nothing to do with Samarra!!!???
What?
Would this whole THING be going down this way without our heavy-handed presence?
We don’t NEED to “have anything to do” wiith the trouble now.
Pot been stirred.
AG
P.S. Plus…what ARE “American forces”, exactly? We are a nation that has a MONTROUSLY large spy program. Literally trillions of dollars have been spent. Do you not think that there are SOME “U.S. forces” wearing headdresses and shouting “Allah akbar” allong with the real Muslims? Perhaps in positions of real power?
There is a multidimensional game going on, Steven.
Notice that we have been “threatening” to go after Iran for…what? Nine months now? A year or more? But it hasn’t happened.
Stir that pot, baby, and then sit back and watch the ragheads do our work FOR us. THAT’S what they are thnking.
Keep the boil on and take the oil.
It is ALL about oil.
In a Blood For Oil War…doesn’t it make sense to let factions of the other side take each others’ blood?
That’s what’s up…
we have a real strategic interest in stirring up shit at this point. At least, not by blowing up a major Shi’a mosque.
This isn’t helpful to us on any level that I can divine.
This may go beyond past uprisings that have burned out after a few weeks. This could become a sustained bloodbath, and it certainly isn’t controllable.
The CEO mentality that has managed this war to this point does not like uncertainty.
I honestly don’t think we want civil war. We want a stable government that can raise the revenues to buy a nice army from Raytheon, Boeing, and the other bigwigs, and we want to keep the oil out of the hands of the Russians and the Chinese.
The oil issue is already settled, and we would prefer to pump it without constant sabotage.
So, taken as a whole, civil war is not in our business interests, and I don’t see any strategic advantage (although some idiot might think so), and I really don’t see any political advantage.
If Iraq is still ablaze in November it won’t be helpful to the Republicans.
The only exception to this would be if Bush is actually thinking of pulling out and needs an excuse (we tried to help them, but they fought with each other).
SO many mistakes in this comment.
I hardly know where to begin.
First sentence, I guess.
“I don’t think we have a real strategic interest in stirring up shit at this point.”
Who “WE”?
The U.S.?
But BooMan…BushCo is BIGGER than “the U.S.”
It is the first multi-national corporate government.
“This could become a sustained bloodbath…”
Precisely.
So the price of oil goes up for a while. But the blood that is flowing weakens BOTH factions of the opposition. Just like the Irael as attack dog idea. Only bigger. Keep the opposition in turmoil, never let them settle down. The waging of war by deception.
“The CEO mentality that has managed this war to this point does not like uncertainty?”
No?
They have done a FINE job of sustaining it if they do not.
At home AND abroad.
They “like” whatever gets them over.
”I honestly don’t think we want civil war. We want a stable government that can raise the revenues to buy a nice army from Raytheon, Boeing, and the other bigwigs, and we want to keep the oil out of the hands of the Russians and the Chinese.’
But “we”…they…cannot ASSURE a “stable government” in the region due to a true popular uprising that is fueled by that strongest of ALL emotions…racial/religious fervor. It has already become obvious that they cannot create a stable government that is reliably a puppet of the west. So instead…chaos.
THAT will also keep the oil out of the hands of other powers.
“The oil issue is already settled, and we would prefer to pump it without constant sabotage.”
Sheer bullshit.
It is NOT “settled”, and until the Islamic resistance is totally broken, it WILL not be settled.
I found it interesting to hear Butch mouthing lines about “alternate energy” recently. It occurred to me then that perhaps the strategic goals of BushCo have shifted somewhat as they have slowly realized that they CANNOT force a win in the Middle East. Now maybe it’s slash and burn time. If “we” cannnot have the oil in the Miiddle East, maybe it’s time to make sure that NO ONE can have it and try to develop other ways to dominate. Just like a retreating army burning the crops as they go so that the victors will not be well supplied either.
“If Iraq is still ablaze in November it won’t be helpful to the Republicans?”
We shall see. I am not convinced tthat BushCo is not in the catbird seat in BOTH parties. Nor am I convinced that an honest election can any longer be run in the United States of Deception.
We shall see…
“The only exception to this would be if Bush is actually thinking of pulling out and needs an excuse (we tried to help them, but they fought with each other). “
Now THERE’S a good one. First thing that made any sense whatsoever in this comment. (Except for the part where you refer to “Bush” as someone who actually does ANYTHING other than say the lines he is given, of course. “Bush is actually thinking…?” Poor choice of words, at the very least.)
Start the fire, and then get the fuck out. It’s getting too expensive this way.
Yup…that’s about right.
WHOEVER is doing the thinking.
Later…
AG
there is a mindset I see all the time, and you exhibit it.
The mindset interprets all events in Iraq as unfolding according to plan.
But nothing has gone according to plan.
What would be closer to the truth is that BushCo. has gamed the system so that they can benefit financially from any conceivable outcome. But that is far different from what is suggested when people attribute every bombing, and every idiotic decision to a desire for chaos.
To suggest that we might have bombed the shrine because we want civil war is problematic because it is not clear at all how this is desirable.
Unless…we have decided to scare the Sunnis so badly that they put down their IED’s and ask us for protection.
PLAN???
“What would be closer to the truth is that BushCo. has gamed the system so that they can benefit financially from any conceivable outcome.”
That IS “the plan”.
“To suggest that we might have bombed the shrine because we want civil war is problematic because it is not clear at all how this is desirable.”
#1-I did NOT suggest that “we” (And please, BooMan, stop usng that word in this context., You are beginning to worry me.) bombed the shrine.
SOMEONE certainly did, and the U.S. provided the context.
#2-“We” can game a civil war just as we game everything ELSE.
#3-“problematic”: open to doubt or debate
I will give you the benefit of theAT doubt and hope that you are using one of the currently most misused words in the English language correctly rather than to mean “something that causes a problem”.
Yes. You are right. It IS “open to doubt or debate”. And I am trying to OPEN that debate.
‘Unless…we have decided to scare the Sunnis so badly that they put down their IED’s and ask us for protection.”
Could be…
LOTS of things “could be”.
That is what I am saying.
AG
You’re making a cheap argument.
If ‘we’ the United States Government, want a civil war or not cannot be determined by saying we will benefit either way. In that case, the argument might be that we don’t give a shit. But it doesn’t answer the question of whether we are taking actions to promote or preclude that possibility.
Now, did we dismantle the army in Iraq because it was part of a masterplan to make the Iraq’s tolerate our long-term presence? Or did we just do it as thoughtlessly as we appear to do everything else? Perhaps Chalabi convinced us that all Ba’athists are Nazis that must be purged and that we could become King by consent. Who knows?
It’s important that we gamed the system so that we would be able to plunder our treasury either way. But it still matters whether events are being directed or they are just unfolding in a more or less organic way.
I use ‘we’ because we elected these people.
That’s the last fucking stupid idiot straw! They breed this mysterious Iraq Al Qaeda one legged, two legged, shot in the lung Zarqawi shit. And whether the meant to allow him to escape so they would always have a bad guy out there we needed to be protected from or not, Al Qaeda Osama is still dragging around a fucking dialysis machine over some of the toughest terrain in the world. They have claimed false links to Al Qaeda this and Al Qaeda that and it is all foggy and mysterious and unexplainable and then they fucking dare to be put out when Americans are terrified when an UAE company wins a contract to protect our ports and to top it off they threaten the terrified with VETO. I have so totally had it with these assholes! UNFUCKING BELIEVABLE!
Yep. It’s been unfucking believable for so long now I can’t remember when life was “normal” any more.
We’ve been steamrolled so many times, we don’t even realize that we’re now all flat.
The mighty steamroller keeps going … I am not sure it has an OFF switch.
imho, these various insurgency groups do not require a single leader …
btw, did any of you watch PBS Frontline’s new story on the insurgency? It should be repeated on your PBS stations this week and will be available online next week.
They’re quite a motley mix. And they are seriously dangerous people who are brainwashed into thinking that death doesn’t matter.
One newsperson ran into a young guy from Saudi Arabia who had a gun and was holding it as the Americans were rolling in. He turned to the newspeson and asked him if he knew how to operate the gun.
What mattered most to the kid was gettin’ to heaven.
That’s insane. Whichever groups are pushing this shit at these kids need to be loudly, vehemently quashed by others in their own countries/groups/religions.
Laura Ingraham was on Scarborough just last night saying Iraq was in much better shape than the media lets on. All these dead Iraqis are obviously part of a plot to discredit Laura. Shame on them.
It’s obscene isn’t it. Our air waves are dominated by Bush apologists who continue to mouth talking points ad nauseam while our country gets torn down.
Dear Laura is just one of their many minions sucking up the GOP cash.
It’s sad that so many people lap up this type of talking point in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. I was kind of suprised Scarborough’s producers didn’t cancel the segment in light of current news reports. The horrible timing of her propaganda would be deeply embarrassing to anyone who still has a soul. I’m sure Laura sleeps fine at night.
What a stupid ass!
I only caught a few of Scarborough’s teases, and thankfully avoided the actual talking points, but apparently she just got back from a tour of our heavily-protected Iraqi military bases a few days ago.
think she is going to get staying in well protected zones. I think she is apt to get a well protected idea, view, and opinion of the real conditions in Iraq. How dare people even admit to staying in well protected areas and then go on the tube talking about how the press paints negative Iraq pictures. If it is so okay then get your ass out there Laura and shake hands with the people. Stupid Ass!
Of course you’re right, she didn’t really need to do anything more than step on Iraqi soil and then get right back on the plane, because she already knew what she was going to say when she got home. She went solely so she could claim firsthand knowledge to support the propaganda. The worst thing possible for the talking points would be getting Laura killed in a “safe” country, so there is no way her handlers would ever expose her to the daily reality of actual Iraqis.
I’m listening to the Commies on NPR, and they’re doing a hell of a report right now … oh, what’s the reporter’s name … woman … Ann …
They have the crowd noises, the chants, ….
“Why are there so few guards?” A man asked about the shrine ..
now she’s giving the history.
Went to check — NPR Morning Edition has two reports / the audio production is superb as is the information:
1) Shia Debate Response to Bombing of Samarra Shrine
by Anne Garrels
Morning Edition, February 23, 2006 · Iraq’s Shiite Muslims are outraged by the attack on one of their holiest shrines, north of Baghdad. The destruction of the golden dome in Samarra set off protests and sectarian violence across the country.
2) Insurgent Infiltration Not a New Concern in Samarra
Morning Edition, February 23, 2006 · Insurgents posing as police destroyed the golden dome of one of Iraq’s holiest Shiite shrines on Wednesday, setting off increased sectarian violence. Steve Inskeep talks with Knight Ridder reporter Tom Lasseter [GOOD], who was embedded with American troops in Samarra earlier this month.
…and sad for the people we supposedly went to ‘liberate’ (I know it’s just the marketing line). What a complete and utter mistake. We’ll be paying on it in blood, treasure, and reputation for decades — if not the rest of the century — to come.
By the way, today is the 15th anniversary of the start of the first Gulf War. It ended 100 hours after it began, on February 27, 1991. The current Gulf War, OIF, is at 25,700+ hours and counting…
…that although we’ll be paying for our mistaken invasion for decades to come, our costs are nothing compared to that of the Iraqi people. They are bearing the supreme burden. I’m keeping them in my prayers…
Thanks you, Steven D for this important diary. I wish it wouldn’t have had to be written.
I wish it wouldn’t have had to be written.
Ah, don’t we all. Don’t we all.
I’m puzzled. I posted a comment last night, in response to a diary about Riverbend, speculating about who could be behind the Samarra mosque attack. It’s an interesting topic, so I turned it into a diary, with a poll giving 10 options. There was not a single comment or recommendation. Do I have bad breath?
The news always mechanically assumes that “Al Qaeda/Zarqawi” is behind the sectarian attacks in Iraq.
This article here also just skims the surface, naming two or three sides that might benefit. An article in Time Magazine this week does the same.
Personally, I suspect the government of Syria.
Is there any reliable evidence on this issue?
Is there any reliable evidence on this issue?
I haven’t seen any. Each side will have their own villain to blame.
Arminius, I haven’t read your diary yet, but i will. And I’m very sorry you got no comments or recommendations.
I see your user number and you’re somewhat new here. Have you found any “pals” here yet? The hard part of posting on blogs is that often one must get “known” a bit to get one’s work noticed.
And, by all means, TOUT your own diaries! Lots of us do that (and we all have to do it a bit to get our diaries noticed at Daily Kos).
You can post a link to it in our OPEN THREADS. You can post a link in the Froggy Bottom Cafe. And, in a comment like yours above, you can post a link there too.
Say, have you been to SyriaComment.com? It’s run by Joshua Landis, a Fulbright scholar who lives in Damascus and writes the most interesting daily posts. I subscribe to his newsletter, which sends along his latest posts — find that more reliable than trying to remember to visit his blog.
Something neat about Josh is that he’s not hard-headed. He gets e-mails from all kinds of people who disagree with whatever he’s written, and he gives them a platform, and responds to them. All in a very CIVILIZED way too. He’s quite a fellow. He’s married to a Syrian woman, and his U.S. base is the Univ. of Oklahoma.
Damn good thing real life ain’t a popularity contest: “pals” don’t call “pals” racists and hate-mongers just because they don’t agree, best thing to do is ignore them.
Susan, Thank you for a great response! No, I had not seen SyriaComment.com yet. I will add it to my daily list. I’ve had quite a few law clients from Syria, so I have more than an academic interest.
Incidentally, I’m too old to care very much about whether I get personal attention. I’ve just made a mini fuss, because my impression–in the din of daily news–is that the Samarra mosque bombing is probably a real tipping point. All my inner red lights started flashing wildly when I read that news. So I’m really interested in reading discussions about this, especially the issue of who is really behind the crime.
Riverbend just hinted at some deep underlying conspiracy.
The media and military consensus is that it’s “obviously” some guys called “insurgents” and “terrorists.” But I think that’s crap. Maybe we’ll never know.
The Syrian secret police is notorious for blowing things up, most notoriously the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in Beirut, but there have been many other bombings throughout the last year. The Syrians have the means, opportunity, and motive. I wonder if anyone else suspects the Syrian government.
By the way, I distrust all the Bush regime criticism of Syria. If they were blaming the Syrians, I would tend to doubt it. But the fact that the Bushies lie about the Syrians doesn’t mean that the Syrian government isn’t evil.
Say, Arminius. Your diary is a fun read. It’s good but it’s always a pleasure to read prose that’s punchy and funny too. (Laughs are always needed.)
I think one problem may be the software, Scoop. And I have noticed this phenom over at Daily Kos too, which uses Scoop software.
I open your diary. I read it. At the bottom, you have a poll. I click and submit my choice.
Then I see the poll results, but nothing else — including the text ofy our diary — unless there were comments. And the recommend button isn’t there.
So, to post a comment, I’d have to click back, etc., etc.
Ideally, the poll results could be shown with the full diary, the commenst, the recommend button, etc. (But perhaps that’s too difficult for the programmers.)
(HAVE OTHERS found this an issue? I’m curious. Thanks.)
Hmm. That’s interesting. The diary works okay for me, but maybe something is wrong in the Scoop code that makes it hard for some people to see. I’ve also seen that happen from time to time on DKOS.
Well, as far as culprits for this go, the likeliest perpetrators are Wahhabi/Salafi extremists who consider Shia muslims to be takfir, who view the shrine in Samarra as an example of idolatry, and are calculating that the punitive Shia response will bolster their position within the larger Iraqi Sunni community, as the issue of primary loyalties becomes sharpened. It will also serve to scupper Sunni political participation in the Iraqi government, keep the battle lines well defined, and reduce US scope for drawing down forces in the near future ( as well as potentially entangling them in a nasty “middle of a gang-fight” scenario in which they start getting targetted again by Shia extremists as well as the Sunni insurgency ). The next most likely culprits on the list would be “secular” Iraqi Baathists who can politically exploit the chaos that the descent into civil war will bring.
The operation was highly professional, there was no suicide element to it, and it was accomplished without killing anyone as far as I can tell – this level of competence suggests that there was an ex-Baath security/intelligence component to it.
Looking back over the recent past, the US has got involved in 3 civil war scenarios since WWII – Vietnam, Lebanon and Somalia – which ended very badly.
I’d look to situate this attack in the context of other high-profile bombings of explicitly Shia targets since the summer of 2003. It’s no accident that this has been carried out during the Shia “mourning” period of Arbaeen, and it’s also noteworthy that the shrine is in Samarra – bang in the heart of the Sunni triangle, and under nominal US military control.
I can see absolutely no reason why Syria would get involved in something like this – it doesn’t play to their benefit at all.
Thanks for a thoughtful response. Due to the professionalism of this attack, I tend to rule out the religious extremists. Iraqi Baathists are indeed a possible culprit, but they are so outnumbered by the Iraqi Shias, and with the threat of Iranian intervention, it seems that they would be in danger of annihilation. Therefore, my own suspicion falls (perhaps foolishly) on the Syrian Baathists. I think they do have one huge reason to provoke civil war in Iraq–to drive the U.S. Army away from their border, where there is already a low-intensity war. At the present, every day there is a realistic chance that Bush will order an invasion of Syria. The risk of that happening goes way down if the U.S. forces abandon Iraq. That seems like a pretty strong motive to me!
There is absolutely no chance of Syria, or Iran for that matter, being invaded. The US has neither the troops nor the monies, let alone any “political or diplomatic capital”, to get involved in further military adventures. The cherished goal of maintaining a permanent presence will not long outlive the current administration.
There may well be plenty of US troops sitting on or near the Syrian border, but it’s hostile territory, they’re fully deployed combatting Iraqi insurgents as is, and trying to muster an invasion force under those circumstances is militarily suicidal.
The Syrian regime is nominally secular, but drawn from a minority Shia sect ( Allawite ), whilst the population is largely Sunni. They have extremely close ties with Lebanese Shia ( Hizbullah ), and Shia Iran – who consider the destruction of this shrine anathema. The calculation is wrong. If you’re looking for a foreign state intervention then it would be more likely to come from Jordan, Egypt or Saudi – but I would rate that likelihood as extremely low. The whole episode smacks of Jihadi conception and Iraqi ex-Baath execution.
Why should they have to suffer and die any more for the corporatocracy’s invasion? The resolution is hung up in committee, and most Dems don’t support it. Is it too late?