First the good news. Russia still thinks a deal can be struck with Iran regarding guarantees and protocols to ensure that it’s nuclear program will not be used to obtain nuclear weapons:

Russia’s top nuclear official expressed confidence Saturday that the U.N. atomic watchdog agency still could resolve the international standoff over Iran’s nuclear program, a Russian news agency reported.

Resolution before the International Atomic Energy Agency could avert U.N. Security Council sanctions or the use of force against the Islamic republic.

During a visit to Iran, Rosatom chief Sergei Kiriyenko said resolving the persistent questions about the intent of Iran’s nuclear program “within the framework of the IAEA is absolutely realistic,” according to ITAR-Tass.

Official statements by Iran’s government (released through its embassy in Spain and first reported by Iran’s official news agency, IRNA) echoed the Russian optimism regarding a peaceful resolution of the “Iranian nuclear crisis”:

LONDON, February 25 (IranMania) – Iran confirmed in a statement it is ready to guarantee its peaceful nuclear program through secure channels, IRNA reported.

Iran is only for peaceful nuclear energy within the framework of the regulations and articles stipulated in the international treaties, a statement published by I.R.I embassy in Madrid stressed.

“The inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (which are currently being done), making use of advanced centrifuges with limited scale (as suggested by some American and British scientists) and contribution of interested countries in Iran’s nuclear program are regarded as the options Iran recommends as its best guarantee to develop its peaceful nuclear program.

[…]

There are some ways showing Iran is not after nuclear program with military purposes, said the statement, adding Iran will send the additional protocol to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to the Majlis (parliament) for final ratification should its mentioned guarantees are (sic) accepted.

The European Union (EU) may provide new ways on Iran’s nuclear case based on legal strategies respecting the NPT articles should it adopt an independent way and not to follow the US policies, the statement recommended.

Iran, the statement notes, has announced that it is ready to hold talks and cooperate with all governments, except the Zionist regime, within the mentioned framework.

Sounds very reasonable. If I’m reading this right, Iran is suggesting that it is willing to comply again with the IAEA’s additional protocol regarding Iran’s nuclear program, and to provide additional security guarantees to be determined after negotiations with the European Union. The additional protocol (which required frequent inspections on shortened notice by the IAEA) began in 2003, and was the reason that the IAEA was able to confirm Iran’s operation of undeclared nuclear facilities. Iran had suspended the IAEA’s rights under the additional protocol earlier this year in response to pressure against its decision to process small amounts of enriched uranium at its declared facility in Natanz. This earlier story, highlighting an interview with former weapons inspector David Albright, gives further details on what the IAEA’s additional protocol entails.

(Read more below the fold)

Now its certainly a possibility that Iran is merely trying to split off the Europeans from the United States on this issue. Europe may, after all, be more willing to allow Iran to continue operating it’s nascent nuclear program with these additional security guaranties and protocols. Nonetheless, it seems like a very reasonable option. Iran wants to retain its nuclear program for a number of reasons, including national pride, and as a lever in the event it feels threatened by Israel or the United States. However, under IAEA supervision, and whatever other guarantees Iran negotiates, we could easily know when Iran began to move beyond a peaceful use of nuclear technology to military use. That may not square with the Bush administration’s desire to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program entirely, but then a military assault is unlikely to derail it entirely also. I personally would prefer the diplomatic route, and I therefore see these statements by Iran as very positive.

But, as always seems to be the case, there is also plenty of “bad news” to report. Like this story:

Iranian advisor: We’ll strike Dimona in response to U.S. attack

If the United States launches an attack on Iran, the Islamic republic will retaliate with a military strike on Israel’s main nuclear facility.

Dr. Abasi, an advisor to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, said Tehran would respond to an American attack with strikes on the Dimona nuclear reactor and other strategic Israeli sites such as the port city of Haifa and the Zakhariya area.

Note the bellicosity, and also note the source: an Iranian military spokesperson. Probably not surprising the Iran’s military would issue such a threat, but it’s still chilling to actually consider the implications. An attack on Israel would surely lead to a broader war in the Middle East that would have catastrophic consequences for the entire world. Bluff or no, this is a very alarming development.

And, not surprisingly, Iran’s bellicosity is matched by that of our own President:

In Washington on today, President Bush made no reference to the specific development [Note: this refers to Iran’s open enrichment of uranium using a small scale cascade of 10 centrifuges], but once again branded Iran the world’s primary sponsor of terrorism, and warned that the United States would never let the country develop nuclear weapons.

“A nontransparent society that is the world’s premier state sponsor of terror cannot be allowed to possess the world’s most dangerous weapons,” he said in a speech defending his strategy in fighting terrorism.

Doesn’t sound if there’s any room for negotiation from the Bush administration, does it? It’s either “my way or the highway”, the usual stance that Bush takes in confrontations that could result in military conflict. One can only hope that Russia and the EU, through negotiations with Iran, can find a way to forestall Bush’s propensity to seek a military solution to conflicts with Islamic opponents.

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