Think those numerous and more intense tropical storms are just a Northern Hemisphere problem? Au contraire, mon ami, it seems that the folks Down Under are re-living the Gulf of Mexico experience from last summer:
STAFF at the West Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre were yesterday monitoring three systems as the storm season appeared to peak a month out from its end.
The newest storm on the radar was Glenda, which was declared a category one cyclone yesterday.
Forecaster Brad Santos said Glenda was expected to intensify into a severe cyclone as it moved westwards over warmer waters.
“It is expected to intensify rapidly as it moves west and southwest and is likely to reach severe intensity north of the Pilbara by about Wednesday or Thursday.
“It is expected to be at least category three with winds between 170km/h and 224km/h.”
This comes on the heels of the most intense and damaging cyclone to hit Austrailia in thirty years, a little fella named Larry, who hit Queensland last Monday:
Larry crossed the coast on Monday as a Category Five storm—the strongest on the intensity scale—with winds of up to 180 miles an hour (290 kilometers an hour). The tempest tore the roofs off buildings and left about 120,000 people without power.
And Larry was followed a dew days later by Cyclone Wati, which luckily turned away from Northeastern Australia and headed for New Zealand, which it struck instead, after weakening from a category 3 storm.
Not that global warming has anything to do with this, of course . . .
Not in the least. Let’s show a little perspective people:
Whether global warming has affected cyclone frequency and intensity is already uncertain. The journals Nature and Science published papers last year showing that the number of strong cyclones (categories four and five) had doubled in recent decades. There was a matching decrease in the number of weaker cyclones.
But scientists can’t say whether the increased intensity of cyclones was caused by global warming or just part of normal climate variation, which could result in cyclone strength and frequency fluctuating naturally over decades-long cycles.
“There’s been this observed increase in intensity, but we can’t ascribe that to global warming at this stage,” Dr Abbs said. “I don’t think that there’s true consensus at this stage as to what the cause of that increase is.”
A paper released by the World Meteorological Organisation in February noted that “some scientists believe a trend towards more intense cyclones is emerging”.
But the organisation said all scientists “agreed that there is no evidence for a decreasing trend in cyclone intensities”.
You see, just because the number of the most intense cyclones has doubled over the last few decades, and everyone agrees that there is a definite trend toward more intense storms, there’s no reason to play the blame game and suggest man made global warming had anything to do with it. Not without a great deal more study, as our Dear Leader always says needs to be done, should we jump to the conclusion that global warming is the culprit.
So just ignore this hyped up example of environmentalist extremism. I’m sure these “scientists” are just angling for more grant money, or something. They couldn’t possibly be right:
Renewed claims that global warming is driving the increased number of high-intensity hurricanes across the world were published on Thursday.
The new study comes from researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, US. In September 2005 – days after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans – Peter Webster and Judy Curry claimed that the number of intense hurricanes across the world had almost doubled over the past 35 years, and that this was due to rising sea temperatures.
The study was attacked for ignoring other variables known to influence hurricane intensity. These include humidity, the strength of horizontal winds that can disrupt hurricane formation, and atmospheric circulation. William Gray of Colorado State University, US, who compiles annual hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic, said the findings were “not physically plausible”.
But the Georgia duo recruited in-house statisticians to subject their original findings to detailed analysis, comparing the role of sea temperatures with the competing factors – humidity, wind strength and atmospheric circulation.
Statistician Carlos Hoyos and colleagues conclude that all four factors have been working to increase the strength of hurricanes. But, reinforcing the original study’s conclusion, they say that “the contribution from sea surface temperature dominates” in every ocean. Gray has yet to respond.
