Paul R. Pillar is a 28-year veteran of the CIA. From 2000-2005, he worked as the national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia where he was considered the agency’s lead analyst in counterterrorism. He now works as a security studies professor at Georgetown University.
Here is his assessment of what we face if we attack Iran.
any U.S. or Israeli airstrike on Iranian territory “would be regarded as an act of war” by Tehran, and that Iran would strike back with its terrorist groups. “There’s no doubt in my mind about that. . . . Whether it’s overseas at the hands of Hezbollah, in Iraq or possibly Europe, within the regime there would be pressure to take violent action.”
This should not be surprising, nor should it be considered sinister. The idea that the United States can launch air strikes anywhere, anytime, and not suffer any consequences is foolish.
The United States and Iran have been fighting a low level covert war against each other since 1979.
Before Sept. 11, the armed wing of Hezbollah, often working on behalf of Iran, was responsible for more American deaths than in any other terrorist attacks. In 1983 Hezbollah truck-bombed the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, killing 241, and in 1996 truck-bombed Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, killing 19 U.S. service members.
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Iran’s intelligence service, operating out of its embassies around the world, assassinated dozens of monarchists and political dissidents in Europe, Pakistan, Turkey and the Middle East in the two decades after the 1979 Iranian revolution, which brought to power a religious Shiite government. Argentine officials also believe Iranian agents bombed a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in 1994, killing 86 people. Iran has denied involvement in that attack.
Iran’s intelligence services “are well trained, fairly sophisticated and have been doing this for decades,” said [Henry A.] Crumpton, a former deputy of operations at the CIA’s Counterterrorist Center. “They are still very capable. I don’t see their capabilities as having diminished.”
Both sides have increased their activities against the other. The Bush administration is spending $75 million to step up pressure on the Iranian government, including funding non-governmental organizations and alternative media broadcasts. Iran’s parliament then approved $13.6 million to counter what it calls “plots and acts of meddling” by the United States.
Here is the deal. If we want to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon we need to find a way to normalize relations with them. Sanctions are unlikely to prevent Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, and may even increase their sense of urgency. Bombing them will be unlikely to significantly reduce their capability. And it will greatly increase the likelihood that American citizens will be targeted, either here or abroad.
It won’t be easy to negotiate with Iran’s government. But, in the long run, nothing could do more to improve our situation in Iraq, or to reduce the threat of terrorism, or to deal with the threat of nuclear proliferation, than for the United States and Iran to make peace and normalize relations.
Seems to me any military engagement with Iran could easily explode throughout the Middle/Near East. Here’s the test: look at a map of the region and find a Country friendly to the U.S. from the Med to the Himalayas. I’d be more worried about the possibility of creating a pan-Islamic reaction.
Nothing unifies a “family” like an attack from outsiders. Could they really be that stupid?
I agree. To me, the only way it would make sense to attack Iran would be as part of a much bigger war that would involve India attacking Pakistan, and probably the U.S. seizing the Saudi oil fields.
And, of course, that would be World War Three and would likely turn nuclear (at least in the subcontinent).
This is serious business. And, ultimately, it doesn’t make any sense at all.
that Operation Iranian Freedom will involve spreading democracy even beyond Iran.
Those who are not sure that this is World War Three might want to make a list of nations who are not currently involved in armed conflict, either outside their borders or within them, supporting such conflict with money, expendable gunmen, weapons or covert operatives.
But to people who have different goals and place goals ahead of people it makes enough sense, and if they encounter problems it’s just a few problems
half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred:
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns’ he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!’
Was there a man dismay’d ?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do & die,
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley’d & thunder’d;
Storm’d at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.
Flash’d all their sabres bare,
Flash’d as they turn’d in air
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army while
All the world wonder’d:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro’ the line they broke;
Cossack & Russian
Reel’d from the sabre-stroke,
Shatter’d & sunder’d.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley’d and thunder’d;
Storm’d at with shot and shell,
While horse & hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro’ the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.
When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wonder’d.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred!
Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Ah, yes, we must secure Central Asia- famous last words of:
Attilla, Ghenghis, Every penultimate Emperor of almost all Chinese Dynasties, Ivan the Terrible, Disraeli, Lenin, Hitler, Stalin, Breznev, and I could go on but I’ve spelled enough names wrong for today.
W- The Man Who Would Be King- at least it has a happy ending.
Secret talks about ‘inevitable’ attack against Iran is underway today’s Sunday Telegraph, UK reports.
Shameless pimping? Why yes, Guilty.
I don’t feel the US has any intention of normalising relations with Iran. This is Iraq, part II.
But bombing them will push the Iranians to shut down Hormuz and create a bottleneck where 40 percent of the world’s oil passed through ever day and is the main route of oil exported (up to 90%) from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Iraq.
Hormuz is less than 40 miles wide at one point – it’s a geographical nightmare in this geopolitical chess match.
Not only are they pushing the nuclear issue, but the latest MSM meme is Iran is harbouring al Qaeda leaders.
Well, so does Pakistan, who also has the the bomb, and is in no way, shape or form a democracy. And Israel for that matter (nuclear weaponed and IAEA ignorant).
George thinks they are satanic at any rate…
RK
Of course they don’t. Normalizing relations with Iran would be sensible. There is nothing sensible about this administration.
And yet Iran is trapped too. They have institutionalized hatred against the Great Satan. The phrase “Death to America” is as firmly implanted on the Iranian landscape as “It’s the real thing” is here. And even with all that the Iranian people don’t dislike the American people. The American government, yeah, but not the people.
But even with all that, it wouldn’t take much to defuse the situation. Too bad this administration is incapable of doing that.
Well, actually, defusing the situation is very difficult politically. It’s not just convincing Iran of our sincerity and good faith, it’s also concincing Israel and Israel’s powerful bipartisan lobbying groups here in America of Iran’s good faith.
Without any resolution of the Palestinian question and with both the government’s of Palestine and Israel in a period of transition, it is difficult to get anything done.
The best chance for progress and peace is still a fresh administration. But Washington needs to start the wheels moving. Open the doors on the NSA issue and they can push Bush/Cheney out at anytime.
A fresh administration would solve a myriad of problems. It wouldn’t solve everything, but as long as the kleptocratic Bush cabal is in power, we can’t solve anything.
The Iranian navy, which has three Russian-designed Type 877 Kilo-class submarines in its possession, recently announced it had tested its version of the Russian-made VA-111 Shkval, an underwater torpedo against which there is no effective countermeasures.
Here’s what the Iranians have against the American navy:
3 Kilo Class Type 877 diesel submarines. These are the world’s quietest diesel submarines, with a range of about 400 miles submerged.
A high-speed torpedo with a range of about 7,500 yards against which there are no effective countermeasures. However, the VA-111 Shkval must be fired from a submarine, and the Iranians have six submarines–and only the 3 Kilo class submarines would be capable of the type of operation needed to launch their veresion of the VA-111 Shkval.
The American navy wasn’t much worried about the Iranians’ Kilo class submarines, as the US Navy could easily blanket the theatre of operations with electronic surveillance (AWS) for the Iranian submarines and destroy them in what one US admiral called “essentially a live-fire operation”.
However, when one combines the Kilo class submarines with these VA-111 Shkval torpedoes, the situation becomes much more problematic.
Despite the confidence of some military analysts that the US Navy can easily handle even this new threat, simply by targeting and destroying the Iranian submarine fleet before it gets a chance to move against the American fleet, there are two pieces of evidence that may show why the US Navy should be worried:
So now we have this scenario: President Cheney (through his sock puppet, George W. Bush) orders a carrier grup into the Persian Gulf for naval operations (either a sea-launched aerial assault on Iran or a naval blockade of Iran’s key port of Bandar Abbas). The Iranians attack one or more US warships, badly damaging or even sinking them.
President Cheney now has his excuse for all-out war with Iran. The American public would not tolerate the Iranians sinking one American warship and killing hundreds, even thousands, of sailors. Never mind who started the fight; never mind that the Iranians will claim they were defending themselves; the American public won’t care. It’ll be Pearl Harbor, and the public and Congress will give President Cheney–I mean, er, “President” Bush–free rein to attack Iran, conscript troops, whatever he asks for. Cheney can then order Iraq-based bombing runs on Iran (now you know why the US seized Iraq as its colony and is building a dozen permanent military bases inside the country…not to mention that Saddam already build a lot of wonderful air force bases that the US can use).
This scenario may or may not play out. But certainly the Russians, by providing Iran both with Kilo class submarines and now with the VA-111 torpedo technology, have proven themselves a formidable barrier to American hegemony in the Arabian Peninsula.
…is that since there are no effective countermeasures against the VA-111 torpedo itself, the only way to ensure the safety of the US Navy would be a pre-emptive strike that would destroy the entire Iranian submarine fleet (especially the 3 Kilo class submarines).
So take your pick:
I was going to include 3. The American public and the Congress rise up to stop the mad imperialistic, war-mongering schemes of President Cheney, Homeland Chancellor Rumsfeld, and King George the Sockpuppet, but…who am I kidding? I don’t write fiction.
and will have to have democracy spread on it.
American Resolve is the only effective countermeasure against the Enemy that Lurks.
April Fools Day is over, Ductape!
Mr. Danger has been very clear that American Resolve will not falter. And that America will Prevail. Anyone who harbors or aids a terrorist is a terrorist. You are with us or you are with the terrorists.
Nothing was said about making an exception for Russia.