Last Spring, Senators Harry Reid (D-NV) and Charles Schumer (D-NY) got together with PA Governor Ed Rendell and decided that the candidate to take on Rick Santorum should be Bob Casey Jr.  They even pressured Joe Hoeffel and Barbara Hafer into not running.  One of their main reasons was that Casey got a record number of votes in his ’04 Treasurer’s race against a Republican no one can name.  The other is that Casey is “pro-life”.  This, they thought, would take the abortion issue off the table.  

But polls are suggesting otherwise.  In the December Quinnipiac University poll Casey had a 50-38 lead over Rick Santorum.  However, after it was pointed out pro-choice Casey voters that he and Santorum both oppose legalized abortion, only 63% of his pro-choice “supporters” said they still will vote for him, while 22% said they will not vote in this race.  Another 6% said they’d vote for a pro-choice 3rd party candidate.  

Many respondents had assumed Casey’s pro-choice because he’s referred to as a Democrat.  After all, in a state where roughly 55% of voters identify as pro-choice it sure would’ve made sense for Dems to pick a pro-choice candidate to run against anti-choice Santorum.  

Now two new polls, show Casey’s lead dropping fast. In the latest Rasmussen election poll, Casey earns support from just 48% of PA voters. That’s a four-point drop since  February. Casey has lost at least a point in each of the last several surveys. Rasmussen argues the decline is likely due to recent attention to Casey’s anti-choice views when former NARAL pres Kate Michleman was considering running as an Independent).   Casey currently attracts only 70% support from Democrats, 60% from “liberals”.

Casey’s lead has also been declining in the Zogby interactive polls: In March, he got 47.4% to Santorum’s 39.4%  

Now that voters are starting to learn Casey is “pro-life” his lead is almost cut in half.  Roughly 50% of PA Republicans are pro-choice.  Why would socially liberal / fiscally conservative Republicans vote for Casey?  They don’t agree with him on anything.  But many of them would vote for a pro-choice Democrat like Chuck Pennacchio.

What will happen when voters learn that Casey is also against embryonic stem cell research and universal healthcare, and that he supports the war in Iraq and confirmation of Samuel Alito?  The January Zogby poll  showed that his lead evaporated.  On the other hand, progressive Democrat Chuck Pennacchio beat Santorum by almost 3 points.  

We have overwhelming evidence that Casey cannot beat Santorum.  For every 2 liberals willing to plug their nose and pick Casey in November you’ll find one that won’t.  We need Pennacchio to win the primary on May 16th.  Go to Chuck’s website and volunteer or contribute to his grassroots, PAC-free camapaign.  Pennsylvania can either elect the next Paul Wellstone, or have 6 more years with “Man on Dog”.  

Update: Casey’s lead is also down to 11 points in the Strategic Vision poll, and 10 points ahead in the Keystone. The bottom line is Casey’s support sinks as his conservative views are known.

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