(cross-posted at DKos)
This diary does not pretend to be authoratative in any way. It is simply the result of research I’ve done on Google, and this is what I’ve found. I’m sure some of you out there will correct or add to any details that I have collected in this diary.
Sy Hersh said on CNN April 10, 2006:
What you just read says this. If you’re giving the White House a series of options, and the option is to get rid of an underground facility — the facility I’m talking about is Natanz, 75 feet under hard rock — if you want to tell the White House one sure way of getting it in a range of options is nuclear, what happened in this case is they gave that option, the JCS, the Joint Chiefs [of Staff].
Here is a map I compiled showing where the Natanz facility is located, among other details:
Now allow me to explain what information this map provides…
First of all, here is the best (that we know of) of what the U.S. has with respect to min-nukes (bunker-busting) bombs:
It is called the B61-11. It can store a yield of between 0.1 and 300 Kilotons of nuclear explosive. Dropped from a height of 40,000 feet, it will penetrate the soil up to 20 feet.
In order to minimize lethal nuclear fallout, the goal is to detonate these devices as far below the ground as possible. The bigger the crater produced by an underground nuke going off, the greater the fallout. However, as this diagram reveals, a “safe” depth to contain fallout from a nuclear explosion is pretty much not practically possible.
Fig. 5 Underground nuclear tests must be buried at large depths and carefully sealed in order to fully contain the explosion. Shallower bursts produce large craters and intense local fallout. The situation shown here is for an explosion with a 1 KT yield and the depths shown are in feet. Even a 0.1 KT burst must be buried at a depth of approximately 230 feet to be fully contained. (Adapted from Terry Wallace, with permission.)
– source: FAS Public Interest Report
Even for a 0.1 KT yield, the bomb must be detonated below 230 feet for full containment!! And as Sy Hersh reported, the bunker at Natanz is only 75 feet deep.
Now, assuming that containment would not be possible, what kind of fallout are we looking at? Robert W. Nelson, at Princeton University, states that:
“A one kiloton earth-penetrating ‘mininuke’ used in a typical third-world urban environment would spread a lethal dose of radioactive fallout over several square kilometers, resulting in tens of thousands of civilian fatalities.”
He adds that:
earth-penetrating weapons “cannot penetrate deeply enough to contain the nuclear explosion and will necessarily produce an especially intense and deadly radioactive fallout.”
– source: Center for Nonproliferation Studies
At the Federation of American Scientists website, there is a Java based “Fallout Calculator” which I experimented with. I decided to detonate a 1 Kiloton nuclear bomb over the city of Chicago, with a wind speed of 15 MPH. Below is a graph of the result. The radioactivity spread about 100 KM, according to the simulation.
Of course, I’m sure the paramaters wouldn’t be exactly the same with a bunker-busting mini-nuke, but it gives you some sort of idea of what the results would be if nuclear containment of the fallout did not exist at Natanz.
Back to the composite map I made of Iran. The red area is the area of Iran with the highest population density. The brighter the red, the more dense the population. The flourescent green circle at Natanz marks approximately the range for the fallout that might occur if a mini-nuke goes off in that area (using the fall-out calculator as a basis). The nearest significant population is at a city called Esfahan. I have read that it is known as the most beautiful city in Iran (thanks to aruac for this link, that will show you the stunning beauty of this city). The population is a whopping 1.6 million. You can imagine for yourself how much harm will be done to these people if a mini-nuke goes off in their backyard. Personally, I don’t want to even think of it.
– “The Blue Mosque”, by Nima Mehrabany, 2003 (The Imam Mosque of Esfahan)
– “Abyaneh”, by Samad Jalalian, 2005
Anyhow, I hope that sheds some more light on how insane these people are, if they are seriously contemplating the use of mini-nukes in Iran.
———
The Union of Concerned Scientist has produced a Flash animation of the new RNEP nuclear bunker-buster that Bushco. was trying to develop up until October 2005. Check it out. It is entirely relevant for the disussion of any nuke device used in Iran. (hat-tip to Nailmaker)
The Nuclear Bunker-Buster animation
Incidentally, The Jane’s Information Group is speculating that this RNEP bomb program may still be ongoing — under a different name.