(cross-posted at Deny My Freedom)
Working at a place of business, the television is always tuned to CNBC. While the only time I really take any notice is when Jim Cramer is yelling his head off, after trading hours, a show called ‘Kudlow and Company’ shows. It’s hosted by a blowhard named Lawrence Kudlow, and one of his topics of discussion today was titled ‘Republican Mojo’. Since the sound was off, I couldn’t (thankfully) hear the blustering bullshit that a man who called the estate tax ‘morally inferior’ was saying on the issue. One of the points brought up in support, it seemed, was Brian Bilbray’s victory over Francine Busby in the CA-50 race. Unless you’re completely removed from reality, though, there are signs quite to the contrary that the Republicans, in fact, have no mojo.
How can I be so sure, you ask? Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the most wanted terrorist in Iraq, was recently killed, and the talking heads are saying that we may have a breakthrough in Iraq now. The Republicans did hold on to a seat that was held by a convicted GOP congressman who is now doing eight years in federal prison. Additionally, Karl Rove was let off the hook in the Valerie Plame leak case. It seems that there’s good news abound for the GOP these days…but there isn’t. The emperor and his coterie are still wearing no clothes.
The first thing to state is that Bush is not doing so well that he will help his party out in the midterm elections. Rasmussen, by far the most Republican-biased poll out there, puts Bush at 42% approval. That’s not exactly something to crow about. Consider that Bush was at 40%, according to Rasmussen, in May – a time when other leading polls have him in the low to mid-30s. Also, I think most people are overestimating the effect that Zarqawi’s death will have on the American population. Remember when we were capturing all those #3 guys? That didn’t do anything. Al-Qaeda in Iraq has already named a new leader, and it’s not anyone that the U.S. knows about. So much for taking down Zarqawi’s entire operations with his death. The killing continues in Iraq, and people can surely recognize that killing one man – someone who is merely one of many terrorists in Iraq – will not end this war. The only thing that would give Bush any sort of lasting boost would be the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden. That is the name that the average American has burned into their brain. al-Zarqawi will go the way of Poland’s membership in the ‘coalition of the willing’.
Secondly, Bilbray’s ascension to the CA-50 congressional seat is not indicative of another surprise GOP wave in 2006. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 44%-29% in the district; the fact that Busby – who, to be fair, was a mediocre, run-of-the-mill candidate at best – was able to come within 4% of Bilbray is incredible. It’s not quite up there on the level of Paul Hackett’s showing in OH-02, but it’s damn close. Bilbray oftentimes ran away from Bush, particularly on the issue of immigration; I can remember when candidates couldn’t wait to stand by Bush at a rally. But it didn’t work for Jerry Kilgore in the 2005 VA-Gov election, and GOP candidates around the country are ducking public appearances with Bush. As evidenced by the bitter divide between the House and Senate Republicans, this is not a party that is unified. This is a party that is in disarray, where its most egregious backers are trying to steer the agenda. Americans have been exposed to the ugly truth about the GOP agenda, whether it be the vile Tom Tancredo or the disgusting Fred Phelps. Only the Democrats can offer a true alternative to the ever-decaying culture of Washington, D.C.; the GOP can try and position itself as a fresh face, but in the end, people will still see the (R) by the name.
The poll results are telling. In Tennessee, a state Bush won easily in 2004, Harold Ford (DLC hack that he may be) is running very close with all three of his potential Republican opponents. In Ohio, a new poll shows Ted Strickland beating the pants off of Kenneth Blackwell, and Sherrod Brown, for all the beatings he’s taken in the blogosphere, is showing a strong lead over Mike DeWine. Rick Santorum is quickly becoming a lost cause, with the linked Rasmussen poll showing him down by 23 points – and it’s a Rasmussen poll. Jon Tester is ahead of Conrad Burns in Montana. Until there are actual poll numbers that show any true reversal of the GOP’s fortunes, their electoral chances this fall are looking dim as ever.
Finally, some may fret that Karl Rove’s return means that another withering campaign will drive us to our knees. However, this year is different. Political missteps have been made abound this year by the White House, and no matter how much they try to divert attention – whether it be the immigration bill, the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, or the constitutional amendment to ban flag burning – the news coming from Iraq cannot be hidden from them. With the stock market suddenly in free-fall, only good news from tomorrow’s CPI numbers will be able to put an end to this period of market correction. If not, there may well be a bear market on the horizon, and if the GOP is forced to defend on real issues such as the economy, they will sink faster than a rock.
Simply put, the average American’s bullshit detector has smelled enough to be alert. Karl Rove may not have been indicted, but we can beat him now – and you know why? It’s because we are no longer scared of him. It’s because the people of America will no longer be cowed into terror by this administration. It’s because the ‘permanent majority’ that Rove had envisioned for the GOP was based on lies…and sooner or later, like Austin Powers discovered in ‘The Spy Who Shagged Me’, the Republicans have no mojo.