Joe Lieberman jumped ship today. He pledged to run for reelection to his Connecticut Senate seat even if he loses the August 8th primary. Lieberman is engaged in some kind of verbal jujitsu, wherein he denies that an independent, unaffiliated run for the Senate against a Democrat and a Republican would prevent him from running as a Democrat. He claims he will merely be a ‘petitioning Democrat’.
Not so. The party must and will support Ned Lamont. If they don’t there will be hell to pay. But they will support Ned. The question is really, how much will the party support Ned? Will Schumer and Reid shower him with money? Will they campaign for him.
I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that Lieberman has just guaranteed that he will lose the primary. He was already down to a 55%-40% lead. But, in refusing to respect the outcome of the primary, he has just alienated the primary voters. I don’t think he can recover.
The question then becomes, who will win in November? Lamont, Lieberman, or Republican Alan Schlesinger? I’m really not sure who should be favored. Lieberman won re-election in 2000 63-34. Left alone by Lamont, he probably would have won re-election with numbers in the high 50’s. If the Republicans have a 34% base of support, it is possible that Schlesinger could win a three-way race. The main reason I don’t see that happening is that Lieberman should garner enough support from Republicans to deny Schlesinger 34%. The question then becomes, how much Democratic support can Lieberman retain? I expect a very close election. Too close to call. I doubt anyone will top 40%.
One thing I am sure of. The Netroots just flexed their muscles and Lieberman blinked. This is our first, real, tangible victory. Joe Lieberman has been forced out of the party. He will lose the primary. If we have to grudgingly accept him back into the fold in November, so be it. I hope the good people of Connecticut will not make the wrong decision.
You can contribute to Ned Lamont here. It will make you feel better.
Also, you can help out NYBri in his New York State Senate race by attending his fund raiser in Manhattan on July 10th.
