I have listened with skepticism for the last few days as individuals here and elsewhere have put forth the idea that the United States is using the Israeli response in Lebanon as a way of jump-starting a conflict with Iran. It seemed outrageous to me that the Bush administration would be willing to instigate such a reaction, especially considering our military forces are by no means in a position to orchestrate a proper response. Furthermore, I attributed the Bush administration’s indifference as reflective of their lack of credibility in the region, rather than any sort of coherent foreign policy.
It looks like I may have been wrong.
From today’s Washington Post:
Israel, with U.S. support, intends to resist calls for a cease-fire and continue a longer-term strategy of punishing Hezbollah, which is likely to include several weeks of precision bombing in Lebanon, according to senior Israeli and U.S. officials.
Follow me below for a look at the reasons why we might be facing the complete destabilization of the region…and all according to plan.
The WaPo continues:
For Israel, the goal is to eliminate Hezbollah as a security threat — or altogether, the sources said. A senior Israeli official confirmed that Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah is a target, on the calculation that the Shiite movement would be far less dynamic without him.
For the United States, the broader goal is to strangle the axis of Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran, which the Bush administration believes is pooling resources to change the strategic playing field in the Middle East, U.S. officials say.
Whatever the outrage on the Arab streets, Washington believes it has strong behind-the-scenes support among key Arab leaders also nervous about the populist militants — with a tacit agreement that the timing is right to strike.
“What is out there is concern among conservative Arab allies that there is a hegemonic Persian threat [running] through Damascus, through the southern suburbs of Beirut and to the Palestinians in Hamas,” said a senior U.S. official who requested anonymity because of sensitive diplomacy. “Regional leaders want to find a way to navigate unease on their streets and deal with the strategic threats to take down Hezbollah and Hamas, to come out of the crisis where they are not as ascendant.”
Essentially, the Bush administration is banking on the fact that they can sit back and let Israel do their dirty work, while the Arab leaders stay on the sidelines, paralyzed by a fear of being portrayed as terrorist sympathizers. They believe that the popular support of these terrorist organizations will falter as the Arab leaders make it clear that their countries will not get involved.
Unfortunately, the rumblings of discontent amongst the Arab people doesn’t seem to be following the plan.
A quick look at the newspaper commentary of the region shows that popular support isn’t exactly overflowing for what is widely seen as a US-Israeli incursion.
From the Lebanese newspaper, The Daily Star:
This week has given a sense of just how quickly things can change in the Middle East. In a matter of hours, a relatively confined conflict in the Gaza Strip erupted into a two-front war, posing a dangerous threat of even wider escalation. But perhaps the most startling development of late is that the United States is at least publicly trying to take a relatively balanced approach to the conflict unfolding in Lebanon.
Expressing concern for Lebanon’s “fragile democracy,” US President George W. Bush urged the Israelis to show restraint during their siege, stressing that precautions should be taken so as not to weaken the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Likewise, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also urged Israel to show concern for the democratically elected government of Lebanon, as well as infrastructure and innocent civilians.
It is the least that they can do, considering the suffering that we Lebanese have endured as a result of US policies. For 15 years, we were trampled under the weight of Syrian oppression, via an occupation that had been approved by Bush’s father, George H.W. Bush, in exchange for Damascus’ cooperation in the 1991 war in Iraq. We were emboldened by the younger Bush’s decision to terminate America’s policy of sanctioning Syrian hegemony over Lebanon. We took to the streets, demanding Syria’s withdrawal and the return of democracy to our country.
From that point forward, we became a focal point in Bush’s democracy scorecard, as he proudly boasted that his policies had helped achieve democratic advancements around the region. Lebanon was held up as a shining example of the fact that the people of the region have a real desire to live in free and democratic states. And we trusted Bush when he promised that he would do everything to protect and advance our aspirations.
But now, our fledgling independence is under fire. Only a little over a year since we started making our own decisions and trying to forge a sense of national unity, we have been hit with a crisis of unexpected proportions. Our fledgling government, which like any 1-year-old is still struggling to stay on its feet, is under fire. Our civilians, who had no part in the decision to abduct Israeli soldiers, are being killed. Our infrastructure, which has only recently been built, is being destroyed.
Yet even now, as Israel is laying waste to our country with guns and missiles paid for with US tax dollars, and as American-made bombs are raining down on our cities, we are still clinging to the same values and ideals that the Bush administration has promoted: We want life, liberty and happiness; we want democracy, sovereignty, freedom and independence.
…snip…
The Americans now need to choose sides, not between warring parties, but between right and wrong. They must now demonstrate their commitment to freedom, human rights and international law and speak out loudly and firmly against the killing of civilians, the destruction of infrastructure and the brutal collective punishment that all of us are now enduring.
And from the newspaper, Dar Al-Hayat:
Israel has launched an all-out war on Lebanon that is as massive as the 1982 incursion. It goes without saying that such a wide-scale war must have had the US green light. However, no matter how much US officials try to justify this war by calling it a reaction, in accordance with Israeli logic, what is happening on the ground is much more than that. This is not the first time that the US administration has taken a step, regardless of the consequences, which further complicates the situation. This has happened in Iraq and Palestine; and this is what we will continue to see in the next stage.
Accordingly, it is impossible to believe US President George Bush when he says, while giving Israel the right to defend itself, that its actions should not “weaken” the Lebanese government. Bush claims to be anxious not to weaken the government in an attempt to justify his contradictions. Whereas he has backed Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence from Syria over the past few months, Bush supports Israel’s bloody aggression that destroys this independence and sovereignty. The allegation has become more like a joke that only raises a dark irony. It is a cover for massacres committed against civilians. It further fuels Arab hatred against the America’s double-standard policy in the region and in Lebanon.
Israel has weakened the Lebanese government and Lebanon in general with its military operations over the past few hours. Also, the complete siege Lebanon is suffering has led to the unprecedented damage to the economy and infrastructure at a time when the government was expecting a booming tourist season this summer. This damage will halt Lebanon’s development for years, even if the Israeli aggression were to end today.
What is the kind of independence that Bush supports in Lebanon, when he fully backs Israel’s efforts to destroy its economy, the most important element of Lebanon’s independence? This is not the first time Israel has targeted Lebanese economic facilities.
The hypocrisy of the Bush administration’s policies in the region is not lost on anyone, least of all the people who go to sleep thinking that a bomb could end their life before they wake up. Furthermore, regardless of how the governments themselves react to Washington’s urgings, the people themselves are not likely to sit idly by while chaos unfolds about them.
There is definitely a historical precedent in place that cleary shows that the people of this region do not react well to what they perceive as blatant US influence over their government. The Iranian revolution of the 1970s showed how an anti-American popular uprising can destabilize these already weakened regimes rather quickly, and the resulting governments are almost never sympathetic to the plans of the US State Department.
But knowing all of this, it appears the Bush administration is prepared to allow the fighting to continue, until they feel their interests have been properly addressed.
The Bush administration is also using Resolution 1559 as a barometer, U.S. officials say, acknowledging that the Lebanese government has shown neither the ability nor the willingness to deploy its fledgling army to the southern border.
U.S. officials have cautioned Israel to use restraint, particularly on collateral damage and destruction of infrastructure, which might undermine the fragile government. There was some U.S. concern about attacks on the Beirut airport, but otherwise Washington is prepared to step aside and defer diplomacy unless there is a dramatic break, U.S. officials say.
“They do have space to operate for a period of time,” the U.S. official said about Israel. “There’s a natural dynamic to these things. When the military starts, it may be that it has to run its course.”
We have already witnessed the tragic willingness of the Bush administration to let armed conflicts “run their course.”
Unfortunately for the people of the Middle East, Israeli, Palestinian, Lebanese, or otherwise, there will very quickly come a time when we won’t be able to exert our influence to stop it. And at that point, it will be very clear that we have fallen into what a recent editorial described as a trap of our own creation.
And like everything else the Bush administration has done as part of their foreign policy, there is nothing we can do to get out now.
(Originally posted at Deny My Freedom and cross posted at My Left Wing and Daily Kos)
