I wish this was part of a psychological operation but sadly, I fear it is not:
As sectarian violence soars, many Sunni Arab political and religious leaders once staunchly opposed to the American presence here are now saying they need American troops to protect them from the rampages of Shiite militias and Shiite-run government forces.
The pleas from the Sunni Arab leaders have been growing in intensity since an eruption of sectarian bloodletting in February, but they have reached a new pitch in recent days as Shiite militiamen have brazenly shot dead groups of Sunni civilians in broad daylight in Baghdad and other mixed areas of central Iraq.
The Sunnis also view the Americans as a “bulwark against Iranian actions here,” a senior American diplomat said. Sunni politicians have made their viewpoints known to the Americans through informal discussions in recent weeks.
The Sunni Arab leaders say they have no newfound love for the Americans. Many say they still sympathize with the insurgency and despise the Bush administration and the fact that the invasion has helped strengthen the power of neighboring Iran, which backs the ruling Shiite parties.
But the Sunni leaders have dropped demands for a quick withdrawal of American troops. Many now ask for little more than a timetable. A few Sunni leaders even say they want more American soldiers on the ground to help contain the widening chaos.
It’s not that I don’t think Dexter Filkins has occassionally done pieces (wittingly or unwittingly) that were largely drawn up by military intelligence. He clearly has, in my opinion. Yet, in this case, his article makes sense. We have trained and equipped a largely Shiite internal security force. Now we are being asked to stay to prevent that force from committing atrocities.
Some people have been critical of me for merely pointing out that a withdrawal is likely to result in a grave humanitarian crisis and massive sectarian cleansing. I point it out because, if saving lives is our number one priority, a quick withdrawal is not necessarily our best option.
I still believe that we have passed the tipping point and that we cannot reverse the disaster in Iraq. Staying, at this point, will only further bankrupt our country, while involving our troops in more unspeakable situations and behavior that will further erode our moral standing in the world.
But we cannot ignore the Sunni’s pleas. We should convene some kind of conference of regional players and work with the United Nations to find innovative solutions. If there is a way to prevent a near genocide in Iraq, we need to make that our top priority. But staying in Iraq indefinitely, working to prop up the very government that is carrying out that near genocide (or, at least, is powerless to stop it) it not an option. Think about it. It is really not an option.
God knows I’m no brainiac Iraq expert like Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and the rest of that gang, but here I go. You’re right about the Sunnis needing protection. We aren’t the people to do it though so we’re back to the mythical international force of peacekeepers. I don’t know how in the world that could be arranged or even how effective it would be. Arranging to airlift every Sunni out of Iraq just before the helicopters start getting pushed off piers would probably be more effective. Or building a parallel underground Iraq where the Sunnis could live … or something like that on the moon, maybe …
There are probably already plans written to withdraw to a safe distance, arm one or both sides to the teeth and watch the carnage. War is always the answer for the people we’ve got running the show right now.
Yes, the Sunnis need protection and we will be ineffectual. But it is our ballywick afterall.
What if we gave our 185 billion dollars to the UN, put blue helmets on our soldiers and gave them some UN bosses? We’ve accomplished what we set out to do, it is still our burdon to bear so we have to do the hard work, but let someone else be in charge. the other side effect might be that other countries would be willing to help if it were a UN operation. maybe I’m naieve, but what we are doing now is not working.
We should convene some kind of conference of regional players and work with the United Nations to find innovative solutions.
The U.N. has been heavily involved since the beginning of the “conflict”, but most of their efforts don’t really get any attention in this Country. And most Americans have no awareness of the fact that our “MNF” has essentially been a police force since Feb -05. Close the Blue Door.
The “regional players” are meeting next month in a (delayed) Arab Summit, at which it is more than likely the split caused by the current conflict in Lebanon/Israel/”Palestine” will take center stage – IF they meet at all. Not much help there either.
Face it, there is no “we” of any significance any longer, and the Bush administration and a majority in Congress have no interest in working with the international community. Think about it.
I’m aware that telling this administration what they should do is kind of pointless. So, this is just for the record.
The thing is, the Dems have to come up with a way to unshit this bed. It’s not fair but that’s what grown ups do.
Ah, misread again. Shoulda known better. You’d written on this at least 18 months ago so I was a bit confused.
If we funded the UN the way we are supposed to, and treated them with some respect, then they might be more effective. It’s OUR fault they’re not effective.
Don’t close the blue door with the bathwater just because it hasn’t worked YET. All they need in Iraq now is a police force. They sure don’t need an occupying army- we’re just in the way. But Iraqis can’t keep the peace on their own so someone needs to help. We sent the UN to Kosovo, a bunch of African countries, why not Iraq?
that a Shiite Iraq would not be a problem, and Iranian influence over it would not be a problem, for several reasons . . . here’s two of them:
The bulk of the technical and administrative competence in Iraq was Sunni (mostly “secular” Sunni at that). They anticipated that a Shiite dominated Iraq would be backward (think Taliban), corrupt and torn by internal squabbles for generations . . .
They thought Iranian influence, regardless its extent, would be inconsequential, because they intended next to do to Iran what they did to Iraq . . . “shock and awe”, followed by sectarians fighting each other over the rubble.
It’s the same plan that Israel has followed in Palestine and is now following in Lebanon . . . destroy the civil infrastructure, kill, arrest or otherwise render impotent any non-quisling political leadership that might emerge, demonize and kill any organized resistance, and then proudly proclaim “see? we told you they were like animals” in justification of the next round of attacks. All while quietly appropriating whatever resources (oil, water, land) might be there for the taking.
They may have underestimated the willingness and resolve of the locals to fight occupation, but the resulting delay has not changed their overall plan. They are so convinced of their own superiority, and entitlement, that what happens to (what they do to) the “other” simply does not matter to them.
They, (the Bush regime) never wanted peace and stability in Iraq in the first place, so all theother calculations would have been moot to them anyway.
BooMan points out that he feels we’ve already passed the tipping point and that nothing will reverse the inevitable decline into even greater tragedy and disaster in Iraq. I submit that the so-called tipping point was passed as soon as the first weapon was launched against Iraq in March of 2003. Once the attack was joined disaster was inevitable because disaster and chaos have always been the true the goals of the Cheney/BushCo cabal.
Civil war in Iraq is desirable for Israel. It’s simply divide and conquer. The neo-cons may be rather content with the current situation.
I don’t think they are happy with the current situation. But even if they are, we should not be happy with it. And we need to focus not just on pulling out of Iraq, but on how to prevent a humanitarian catastophe in that wake. If the left wants to be credible on humanitarian grounds it cannot be seen as indifferent to the massive loss of life that may occur after our calls to leave Iraq are heeded.
Turkey would be happy to do the job, but right now Iran has that role.
The events of the past week in Lebanon, probably by calculation, give Iran cover to define peace in Iraq, as this is not time for an internecine Arab tiff.
Prediction:
One way or another, peace in Iraq will be an old-fashioned Persian variety, with those communities not authorized to bear arms paying tribute to those who are. Then, over the next decade, prosperity and an increasingly fractious relationship between Iraqi Shi-ites and Iranian Shi-ites will turn the law more secular and systematic.
You forgot the Kurds.
The Kurds in northern Iraq also want the United States to remain–or some sort of external force–to protect them from reprisals from both Sunni and Shiite.
I think where this is all heading is a partition of Iraq, the way Yugoslavia was split up, and with the same consequences.
I have accepted the fact that the United States will have significant troop presence in Iraq for at least the next three years. The new president in 2008 would need at least a year to work out a withdrawal solution and we have two years left in Bush’s misbegotten presidency.
There’s a very intelligent discussion of the mechanisms and ramifications of a US withdrawal from Iraq in Rolling Stone:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/8799011/getting_out_of_iraq/
An excerpt:
My predictions?
The long-term results of the US invasion of Iraq? More misery for the Iraqis, a dictator every bit as bad as Saddam, and greatly increased power for the Iranians.
Brilliant.
Well, look at the map in this article: http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/06/1833899
I think the bottom line has an eerie parallel to Vietnam (again). Back then, a true democratic election would have made Ho Chi Minh president, even in South Vietnam. He liberated the country from French occupation after all.
But our government couldn’t permit that; he was a Communist.
Now the person our government fears is Moqtada Al-Sadr. We can’t have him in charge; his guys killed Americans. Plus he draws his strength from the outcasts, the same folks Hugo Chavez appeals to.
Al-sadr, while being friendly to Iran, isn’t likely to play second fiddle to Iranian clerics, and is just the sort of strongman that could restore order in Iraq. But he’s a wildcard and not the puppet material our government wants (AND his guys killed American troops).
So we stay the course, but in my view, we just postpone the inevitable. Unless we assassinate him, he will lead Iraq sometime. Grant him diplomatic respect now and we could have a decent outcome. But I doubt we’ll do that because his guys….
It’s not a great solution but it’s the best there is, I suspect.
Even though the Sunnis will suffer. Which was predictable. Can our presence save the Sunnis? Only temporarily.
That’s why Bush stays the course: even the best course will be pretty ugly now.
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