If you labor under the delusion the George Bush, Dick Cheney, Condi Rice, and Don Rumsfeld learned from the mistakes they made in Iraq, think again. Only this time, they are screwing the pooch with respect to the U.S. policy toward the latest Israeli-Lebanese war. Two of their greatest fantasies are:
1. Insisting that Syria is somehow behind the decision of Hezbollah to kidnap the Israeli soldiers because they want to reoccupy Lebanon.
2. Buying into the Israeli nonsense that they can “secure” southern Lebanon with only an air campaign.
News flash for the chuckleheads–Hezbollah’s principle sponsor and benefactor is Iran. That has been the case for the last 24 years. While Syrian leaders have been extra careful to have a positive relationship with Hezbollah, there is substantial evidence that Hezbollah has done more to protect Syria than vice versa. For the moment Syrians are frozen with disbelief. They cannot believe how quickly events have erupted into war and that they are being blamed for it.
The latest flare up in violence has more to do with Iran’s broader strategy to spread U.S. strategic resources and bog us down in other conflicts than it does with Israeli security. And the icing on the cake? Iran is portraying itself as someone willing to mediate a diplomatic end to the conflict. They may be Persian but that, my friends, is chutzpah!
Israel and its most stalwart U.S. allies are still spouting the bullshit that they can get things under control with simple use of airplanes, drones, and bombs. Oh yeah. Let’s make a list of wars that have been one exclusively through the use of airpower.
(CRICKETS CHIRPING) That’s right. NONE. ZERO. ZIP. Israel has every right to insist that it not serve as the drop zone for Hezbollah missiles. But, they will not be able to bomb their way out of this problem. That can only be done with troops on the ground. I’m betting they won’t be able to resist the temptation. If Israel’s takes Iran’s bait, then Israel will find itself battling an Iraq-style insurgency and Tehran can sit back and enjoy the spectacle of watching the United States try to salvage a democracy in Lebanon while supporting Israel, who is destroying its democratic neighbor to the north, and rally a distracted international community to punish Iran who is busy consolidating its control over the militia, police, and intelligence service in Iraq. Got it?
For another great perspective on things, check out Pat Lang’s latest at Sic Semper Tyrannis, Peace for Galilee 2.
