Air strikes alone aren’t doing the job, apparently:
Israel, meanwhile, hinted at a full-scale invasion. It warned residents to flee a nearly 20-mile swath of south Lebanon along the border. Its warplanes also launched new airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, shortly after daybreak, followed by strikes in the guerrillas’ heartland in the south and eastern Bekaa Valley.
The planes also bombed large parts of the south, from which Hezbollah guerrillas fired more rockets into Israel. On Wednesday, Israeli bombings killed as many as 70 people, according to Lebanese television, making it the deadliest day since the fighting began July 12.
U.N. Secretary-General
Kofi Annan told the Security Council that “hostilities must stop” between Israel and Hezbollah. He also condemned Israel’s “excessive use of force” in Lebanon.[…]The guerrillas have been fighting back hard on the ground, wounding three Israeli soldiers. An Israeli unit sent in to ambush Hezbollah guerrillas also had a fierce gunbattle with a cell of militants.
In another clash, just across the border from the Israeli town of Avivim, guerrillas fired a missile at an Israeli tank, seriously wounding a soldier. Hezbollah said its guerrillas destroyed two tanks trying to enter the Lebanese border village of Maroun al-Ras, across from Avivim.
Israel has mainly limited itself to attacks from the air and sea, reluctant to send in ground troops on terrain dominated by Hezbollah.
But an Israeli army spokesman refused to rule out the possibility of a full-scale invasion. Israel broadcast warnings Wednesday into south Lebanon, telling civilians to leave — a possible prelude to a larger ground operation.
All their options are open? If that was Bush or Cheney talking we’d know they were thinking about nukes, but somehow I don’t think the Israelis would go there. As for a ground assault, unless the Hizbollah missile attacks end soon, you can bet the farm on it. Israel is determined to eradicate Hizbollah from South Lebanon, even if it means destroying the entire country along with the terrorists. And don’t expect the IDF to call off the dogs if the Bush administration issues a STOP order next week. They know any threat Bush makes is toothless.
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See my comment “Devastating Analysis” in the excellent diary by Larry Johnson.
LATEST NEWS:
Israel’s PM Ehud Olmert has agreed to open a European proposed humanitarian aid corridor from Beirut to Cyprus by temporarily ending the port blokkade.
Haaretz — Israel to allow direct flow of humanitarian aid into Lebanon
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
Steven, it looks like you, Larry, and me are all singing from the same hymnbook. Israel’s going in, and then they’re stuck.
There is a whole humanitarian component to this, but there is also the question of whether this is really our problem?
How does having Israel bogged down in Southern Lebanon effect our interests?
I see it as a PR disaster. Beyond that, though, I’m not sure.
The Israel getting stuck in Lebanon scenario held true in the past when the US military was not in the neighborhood. The regional situation is considerably more volatile now. While I certainly agree that having its military resources stuck in a Middle East quagmire are not in the interest of the US, the people running the government don’t appear to see it that way. The Bush administration has been giving clear and consistent full speed ahead signals to Israel. I strongly suspect that this is part of a plan to widen the war. The American public was getting down right grumpy about the situation in Iraq. However, they are clearly still willing to give unquestioning endorsement to anything that involves Israel.
…has noted in The Summer of 1914, this ain’t winnable for Israel. Lind definitely is no progressive:
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Thank you for excellent analysis by William Lind.
See my diary series on the failure of Israeli leadership to negotiate a final truce in Lebanon.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
It’s a bad analogy. There are no great powers willing to go to all out war against other great powers. We’re not going to see the US and EU declaring war on Russia and China or vice versa with India waiting in the wings like Italy or Japan. Worst case scenario is the US and Israel attacking and invading Iran. Horrible casualties for the US by post WWII standards, Iran utterly devastated when the Americans finally back off, major damage to the world economy, but we’re not going to be seeing any other of the other major powers getting directly involved. That’s why all the talk of WWIII or IV on both ends of the political spectrum is just hype.
As for Hezbollah winning by not losing – not really. That is unless you see Hezbollah’s long term core aim as just survival, but that’s equally true of Israel. This is just one skirmish in the sixty years of war between the Israelis and its Arab neighbours. Neither side has won a definitive military victory so far, neither side ever will.
Several observations here for those persistant enough to wade through the innocuous comments above.
(1) Israel jets BUZZED the President of Syria’s residence just days before the first two Israeli soldiers were kidnaped by a cross border raid by Hezbollah. In tit-for-tat middle-eastern strategy, I think the seizure of the two Israeli’s was the Syrian response to the brazen gesture by the Israeli airforce. If we had a viable government in Washington, it would (a) have prevented Israel from doing this foolish act for the sake of simple bravardo. (b) or else would have been sufficiently staffed in the area diplomatically to send out “firemen” to quell any retalitory action. The current firefight in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah is the result of a catasrophic diplomatic failure of the Bush administration.
(2) Technologically dependent western nations are getting a very scary object lesson out of the current conflict. The terrorists are demonstrating the power of effective use of cold war weaponry. The US government has spent billions on Raytheon’s Hawk anti-missile system, which during Gulf War failed to intercept any missile and it still doesn’t work after extensive re-engineering. Incidently, at that time it was Sadam who was firing rockets into Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel announced that they had independently re-engineered the old Hawk anti-missle batteries and had perfected a new (Israeli)design; which after long and severe testing demonstrated a high successful intercept and kill rate. Well, after over 750 rockets blasting cities inside Israel, it looks like Hezbollah has called Israel’s bluff. So its panic time for the west and time to get somme serious projects up and running in the anti-missile defense labs. (Its also time to send the Hawk Systems into retirement along with the B52’s and Humvees.)With the world awash in soviet area rockets and the chinese selling new medium range rockets on the open market, time is fast running out for western nations to effectively defend themselves from militant Islamic groups.
Of course the Israeli military is going to re-enter and re-occupy southern Lebanon. They can’t not do it because they must not be seen to back down or call off the fighting before they “destroy” the Hizbollah organization. And Hizbollah’s offensive capabilities cannot be destroyed by bombs alone.
Of course the invasion and occupation will be a disaster once again just like it was the last time, and the Israeli population will suffer further and increasing hardship as a result of the continuation of 30+ years of self-destructive decisionmaking by their hapless leaders.
Fanning the flames of this conflagration is the #1 priority for the neocons now; they see it as their last chance to retain power going forward in government and to insure that their delusional ambitions for global hegemony through war will proceed.
Tangental to this, I can’t help but think that even the odious Ariel Sharon would never have made the mistake that Olmert has to retaliate this way.
Israel will try to create a buffer zone 20-30km deep in Southern Lebanon. The BBC called one of their spokepeople on this today about how could you displace hundreds of thousands of people in their own country. It didnt seem to worry the representative of mayhem in the middle east inc.
I liked what Alexander Cockburn had to say today at Counterpunch.org in: Hezbollah, Hamas and Isreal: Everything You Need to Know. Sorry no link, I’m having html trouble.
William Bennett speaks for the Bushists “Give war a chance.”