It’s funny. I’m suffering from a bit of writer’s block. It’s 100 degrees out, the news is all incredibly depressing, and flamewars have sapped my energy. I’m sitting here trying to decide whether to write another piece on the Middle East…kind of going over in my mind the points I want to make. I’m watching former DCI James Woolsey on my television comparing the current situation to pre-Munich Europe of the late 1930’s. He’s telling me that we can’t appease Iran or Syria or…
Or what, exactly? What exactly is going to heppen to us if we tell Israel to call off the dogs? We’ll embolden the enemy? And then they’ll do what?
So, I’m sitting here thinking about this. I’m thinking about the absurdity of the neo-conservatives claiming that we face a menace on a level with the Axis and yet calling for tax cuts and refusing to call for everyday Americans to take up the call to arms.
And then I come across Billmon’s latest. He pretty much hits every single point I wanted to make. So, why write this at all?
Americans just don’t understand the Middle East. They do not understand what the true nature of our relationship is with the Egyptians, the Jordanians, the Saudis, and the Emirates. They don’t understand why they are allied with us. They don’t understand that we built their armies, that we built the security forces, that we own these countries and dictate to them what they can and cannot do. They need to keep up the appearance of independence. They funnel a little money to Hamas to maintain their street cred. It’s all part of the deal. But there are limits to how much they can take. They can’t sit idly by while we pursue James Woolsey’s total war on their Arab and Muslim brothers. Their own people will kill them. And they won’t be replaced by pro-business, pro-Western, pro-American puppets.
Americans need to understand that we simply cannot count on our regional allies tolerating and surviving an all-out war to stamp out Iran’s influence.
Israel’s main source of security is America’s relationship with Egypt and Jordan. The neo-conservative plans put those relationships in grave risk. As Billmon puts it:
Still, you have to wonder how long the soldiers and security agents of your typical pro-American Arab police state are going to go on protecting the rapacious kleptocrats, drunken phonies and Hashamite anachronisms who rule over them — all for the greater glory of the Jewish state and the God-given right of the average American motorist to fill ‘er up at the local gas pump any time he or she likes…
…I don’t know — maybe things would have to get infinitely worse
before Arab soldiers would turn their guns on their officers, or
Mukhabarat attack dogs would sink their teeth in the throats of their
masters. Maybe the pain and humiliation of watching Lebanon destroyed
by American bombs dropped from Israeli planes isn’t enough. But the
puppets themselves are showing signs of a growing unease. They know how much depends on the loyalty of the hired help — or at least its continued willingness to obey orders.
Watching the entire American foreign policy establishment stick their heads in the sand out of fear of offending the Likud lobby is shocking. It’s not shocking because there is no precedent for it. It’s shocking because never before have Israel’s actions so imperiled our interests. And there is absolutely no upside to this. To get any kind of peace with honor, Israel needs America to come in and take over and move on the Damascus.
Our alliances can’t handle such a spectacle. The only people that think this is Munich 1938 are a few nutjobs in Washington DC. And even they don’t believe it. If they did, they’d be calling us all up to sign up and go slay the Mohammedans and liberate Jerusalem.
The internal contradictions of the neo-conservatives ideology are coming home to roost in a major way. We’ve never been proponents of Democracy in the Arab world because we found it easier to protect Israel by creating a ruling elite and providing for their protection. It was also good for business. How we thought we could Democratize our enemies while leaving our allies on their thrones, I’ll never know.
There is only one solution now. Israel must make concessions and hammer out a settlement of the Palestinian question. It doesn’t matter if it appears weak. We will assure their security.
Your last paragraph really got to me. Of course, Israel must make concessions. Of course, Hezbollah must make concessions. They have to negotiate.
What has happened to our collective psyche that negotiation now equals weakness. Has the whole world taken to swilling testosterone cocktails?
Militarism and violence are not always a sign of strength. They are certainlly not the only kind of strength. Integrity, empathy, creativity — all require strength and can lead to outcomes far superior to what we are seeing now.
Preaching to the choir, I know.
Sorry about the heat. Santa Fe is currently 77 and breezy. Aaaah.
in terms of allies. He is Gary Cooper coming to town at high noon. He don’t need no stinkin’ allies. He don’t need to talk. He just needs a big gun! And he is willing to let surrogates be big guns for him!
He has written off tons of agreements as way too much baggage. He is funding star wars just like Raygun and going into debt just like Raygun and running wars just like his Dad (he thinks)! But his dad did understand that the world was full of nations and we could have allies other than “Yo Blair”! In fact that was the only damn good thing his dad did IMO.
I have been struggling to understand the strife in the Middle East and have started to do some reading up. I’m sure Mr. Billmon knows a whole more about it than I do, but from what I’m coming to understand is the Arab world (other than Iran) will probably not do much about the bombings in Lebanon since this has almost as much to do with the conflict between Shia (Hezballah) and Sunni, as it does with Israel and it’s accepted existence in the Middle East.
The ruling leaders/families in these countries hate Shites almost as much as they hate Israelis (and “Infidels”). Hezbalah is tolerated in Lebanon because they provide one of the poorest segments of their population with the food, shelter, medical assistance and education that the Lebanese government does not. The Sunni elite don’t want these people to be educated or assisted in these ways because they’re a threat to their rule.
Perhaps I’m being naive, but it really seems to be in the hands of the rest of the world to bring this fighting to a close. I’m certainly not in favor of what Israel is doing, (violence only begets violence)but we have to be realistic in recognizing that the Arab nations have had plenty of time and money to raise these and other poor people in their countries up out of poverty and degradation, and have continually opted not to do so.
You have the basic outlines right. Some of the details, though, are a little different. Lebanon’s shi’ites outbred the Christians and now constitute a plurality of the Lebanese. Moreover, 80% of Christians and 90% of Sunnis now express support for Hizbollah. Only a few bought and paid for Wahhabi clerics from Saudi Arabia have condemned what Hizbollah is doing. The Arabs, regardless of sect, are thrilled to see Israel going down to defeat and outraged at Israeli induced carnage.. This quickly forced our Sunni puppet regimes to get on the bandwagon.
And there is not much our puppet regimes can do since they need spare parts from us to even use their militaries, that doesn’t mean their populations will not revolt and that there couldn’t be coups.
To prevent coup attempts and accusations of trechery, they may HAVE TO do an oil embargo. We are playing with fire.
Moreover, Iraq is Shi’ite dominated and we are there at their pleasure. If they revolt, BIG TROUBLE.
OK – just when I think I’m getting closer to understanding this, I find myself slip-sliding away. There are so many factions and it’s all so very complicated and the US is in bed with a lot of wicked characters. But I can’t help but think, that even though many of the ruling leaders of the Arab nations may be outraged by the Israeli bombings, they will never take action. While they would be very happy to see Hizballah defeat Israel (whatever form that would take?)once that was done they would still turn their backs on that population. Their differences are so deep seated, religious and irrational.
I’m not sure why you feel there might have to be an oil embargo?
Here’s a reminder. Could happen again.
Last Friday, July 28th, I caught a headline on Raw Story that 4.6 billion dollars of military equipment had been sold around the ME. I believe the corporation was General Dynamics.
BTW, someone I know traveled to Egypt – the Egyptians wouldn’t accept U.S. dollars.
They also need our market for their oil. We’re still the biggest consumers on the planet. That could change if China or India ever find a way to get buying power into the hands of their masses.
Sometimes, well, more and more I feel like a “PEA” – Poorly Educated “American.” (sigh)
If China is a “communist” country and we are in great debt to them and they have a lot of money and a need for energy – why wouldn’t the “State” do all the purchasing and dispensing of oil?
I have know idea about India.
Do they have a lot of money? My impression is that they don’t. And I don’t think of them as a very communistic state these days either – they seem very much on the path to capitalism.
Oh my yes! I don’t have the numbers, nor any links right at hand, but my impression of the economics is that all the manufacturing they do, they have purchased lots of U.S. Treasury bonds. One of their dilemmas is that they are hooked to the U.S. economy, however, they were easing themselves away.
Over at EuroTrib, Jerome a Paris has had lots of diaries on oil – availability, accessibility, demand, anticipated demand, etc.
The U.S. is extremely vulnerable.
According to Brad Setser the Chinese Central Bank now has reserves of around 1 trillion dollar. Not that difficult given that their current account surplus is around 200 – 250 billion dollar a year.
That´s a lot of money!
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/137901/
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/138518/
It sounds like a lot of money – especially when compared to our multi-trillion dollar debt. But per capita? That’s not as much spending power as it may appear….
When there is nothing positive to say it’s easy to get writer’s block. Some days I’ve been railing so long about the crazed neocons and thier idiotic policies that I just run out of steam. It’s so damn depressing.
Thanks – I was going to say almost the same thing. There’s so much to rail against it’s not having nothing to say, it’s having too much to say, about depressing things.
And the heat is a good excuse. It looks horrible – I flipped on the weather channel a couple of times – poor Eastcoasters! We’re finally getting some relief out west.
Btw – I caught Woolsey too, and was just as stunned. I met him recently at an event here in town – said something to him and he responded – very brief. I am pleased at his support of global warming, but of course, his solution is build more nuclear plants. UGH!
You guys have been doing a stellar job in finding background information, and providing the clearest analysis I have read anywhere. I for one am extremely greatfull for the “Heavy Lifting” the Frog Pod has been doing on this mess.
The thing I fear most is the Fatwaissued by Grand Ayatolla Sistani after the massacre at Quan in Lebanon. Sistani’s Fatwa covers only Israel for now, but provides a stern warning of consequences to America. Sistani is a guy who says what he means, and means what he says.
We have around 138,000 troops in Iraq. If Sistani issues a Fatwa against America, the slaughter and bloodbath visited against our troops will make the carnage of our own Civil War seem like a minor skirmish.
Billmon had the following to say on August 1st: “So here’s my confession: At this point I really don’t give a flying fuck whether the Democrats take the House or the Senate back. No, wait, that’s not true. The truth is I hope they don’t. It wouldn’t save us from what’s coming down the road, in the Middle East and elsewhere. It wouldn’t force President Psychopath to change course or seek therapy. But it would make sure that the “left” (ha ha ha) gets more than its fair share of blame for the approaching debacle.
That may well be the natural role of the Democratic Party in our one-and-a-half party system, but I don’t want any part of it any more. * * *
For the rest of us, and for whatever is left of this country’s soul, it doesn’t really matter. We’ve already lost.”
I think he needs a vacation.
You folks react and are influenced way too much by very short term actions, and totally miss the forest from the trees. Then when the forest shows up, you make some BS excuse why your predictions were wrong. This happens over and over, as when the DNC types lose elections they should win, and I predict it will happen now with the Israeli lebanon-palestinean conflict.
What you refuse to understand is that ISRAEL MUST ONLY BARGAIN WITH THESE CHARACTERS FROM A POSITION OF STRENGTH. This is an enemy that has stated they wish to destroy Israel, and any sign of weakness from Israel will embolden them to try to do just that. Israel really is fighting for their existence, and has no place to go if the attack dogs sense blood.
Therefore, this is how it will go down. Israel will rout Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and will set up a virtual scorched earth buffer zone in southern Lebanon. They will show extreme strength in this effort, and their enemies will come to realize that negotiation for a peace-Land deal is the only way to go against such strength! You see the Palestinians and Hezbollah have already rejected a decent Land-peace deal under Clinton, and the only reason why they did this is that they felt embolden by an Israeli weakness of showing restraint.
Now do you understand maybe what is happening. No I doubt you do!
It won’t work. You can’t project strength by losing.
We have made a million new enemies.
Wrong. Killing is not strength. In addition to being a war crime (in the current case of the assault on Lebanon), it is a failure of imagination.
Israel has despaired and decided to lie down with dogs.
The problem with the whole “you must negotiate from a position of strength” argument — which does have its place — is that if you’re the one with the superior army, weapons and sheer military might, it doesn’t hold water. This is true whether it’s the US or Israel using that argument. They’re already starting from a position of strength — but using that vastly superior strength against another country, or a faction thereof, that is clearly smaller or weaker doesn’t make them look strong.
This is like the playground bully knocking down the kid with glasses again, just to prove he still can. That’s not strength. That’s being a bully. It’s cowardice, because the bully feels threatened by a kid who is no threat to him. In fact, he feels threatened by everybody, but he knows he can knock that skinny kid down and not get hurt, so he tries to make himself look and feel tough that way. If the other kid tries to defend himself, or gets back at him in some other way, the bully feels obliged to hit him even harder next time, in order to make himself feel strong again…
That’s a vast over-simplification, of course, as the situation is really a lot more complicated — but the basic power dynamics still hold true.
So long as the US continues to support them, Israel indisputably has bigger and more powerful bombs, more sheer military might, than any other nation in the Middle East, certainly tons more than Hez’bollah has access to (though Hez’bollah is making the strongest use possible of what they do have). Israel could negotiate without appearing weak, because that military might isn’t going to fade away if they do–if negotiations fail, if Hez’bollah fails to abide by any agreement, the bombs and planes will still be there. But apparently they find the idea of Hez’bollah claiming any kind of victory or success in the current conflict too threatening to do so. Hez’bollah very well MIGHT be willing to negotiate, starting with a ceasefire… but it’s ludicrous to expect them to lay down their weapons and totally surrender, just as it’s ludicrous for them to expect Israel to vanish into the desert sands.
And so people will continue to die on both sides, because negotiation is considered weakness, but killing civilians, including women and children, is showing strength….
Bullshit, NG. But what your words clearly highlight is that Israel is a Cancer in the mideast. A Cancer which is fed by stalwart “supporters” living in the US. A Cancer will, untreated, grow until it destroys anything in its way. The muslim – and partly Christian – world which is the one attacked by that Cancer has to do something to survive, no?
Now, Israel don’t have to be a Cancer, it has chosen to be that by itself though.
We decry Islamist movements on the grounds that ethnical fanaticism is a great danger to democracy. Why don’t we decry “Judaists” the same way for insisting on having a “jewish state” (at the expense of muslim and christian arabs)?
P.S.
This comment may, yet again I’m afraid, “earn” me the charge of being an anti-Semite. I refuse to live under that yokel anymore. Hereafter I’ll charge anyone charging me of being an anti-semite an anti-goy/anti-gentile. Tit for tat.
D.S.
Wing-nuts leaders in Israel, UK, and USA have bought into the Air Force “Shock and Awe” con job and started wars in Iraq and Lebanon without ground forces in place. Not unexpected from delusional True Believers.
Three factors are in play; Bringing on the End of Time; Killing as many radical Muslims as possible on the cheap, and Avoiding the loss of Congress in the November elections. All defy rational thought and bring immediate writers block if thought about too deeply.
cross-posted in orange.