Here is some information about historical turnout in Connecticut primaries. The alltime high was in 1970, a year where issues of war and peace were paramount in the minds of the voters. Thirty-eight percent of registered Democrats turned out. In 1978, 32% turned out to vote on a Governor’s race. Since then, it has never exceeded 25%. This year may be different.
In a sign of the tremendous interest in the primary, nearly 11,500 voters have changed their status from unaffiliated to Democrat, Connecticut’s secretary of state, Susan Bysiewicz, said yesterday. That was up from the 6,715 Ms. Bysiewicz said had switched their status earlier in the week.
Unaffiliated voters, who make up roughly 45 percent of the electorate, have until noon on Monday to change their registration.
Nearly five thousand voters have changed from unaffiliated to Democratic in the last week. I suspect all of them will vote. Are these people Lieberman supporters? Are they Lamont supporters?
I don’t know, but they haven’t been polled. They represent a wildcard in the race. I think about 160,000 (24%) people voted in the 1994 primary. If anyone has better numbers, let me know. Five thousand new voters would be about 3% of 160,000.
It would make sense for Lieberman to focus more on bringing in unaffiliated voters than trying to convince registered Dems to vote for him. Still, a good portion of these new voters are probably seeing the buzz and are going to vote for Lamont.
In any case, the polls may show a wider lead than actually exists.
